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In This Issue:
Bitcoin Vs. The World
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Vitalik Makes The Case For Privacy
Mantra Releases A Statement To The Public
VanEck Pitches BitBonds
Gary Gensler Is Bullish On Bitcoin?!?!
Is Bitcoin Doomed? Political Chaos & Trade Wars Are Brewing A Crypto Storm!
Bitcoin Vs. The World
According to Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin’s all-time high was $109,114.80 on January 20. Since then, it has declined by 23.65%, based on the price of $83,300.
Let’s compare Bitcoin’s drawdown to other major indexes:
S&P 500: ATH = 6,147.43 – Down 14.15%
NASDAQ: ATH = 20,204.58 – Down 19.59%
DJIA: ATH = 45,073.63 – Down 11.78%
Now let’s look at how it stacks up against some leading tech stocks:
AAPL: ATH = 260.09 – Down 25.08%
MSFT: ATH = 468.35 – Down 20.27%
NVDA: ATH = 153.13 – Down 33.1%
GOOG: ATH = 208.70 – Down 25.33%
META: ATH = 740.89 – Down 32.29%
TSLA: ATH = 488.54 – Down 50.62%
In terms of recent losses, the rankings look like this:
Major indexes < Bitcoin < Tech stocks
For clarity: major indexes have declined the least, followed by Bitcoin, with tech stocks seeing the largest drops.
So what would the equation look like if all assets returned to their all-time highs? And how would we rank them based on upside potential – purely in terms of current price vs. those highs?
Tech stocks > Bitcoin > Major indexes
Because tech stocks have declined the most, their rebound potential – in theory – is the greatest. Bitcoin is next, and major indexes have the least upside.
All of that logic is simple. But will tech stocks really lead the rally?
Wall Street tends to think so, assuming they’ll bounce hardest simply because they fell the hardest. Personally, I’m not buying that. In fact, I’m only buying Bitcoin.
Let me explain.
There’s something to be said for Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of major index declines (which historically dragged it down hard), Trump tariffs, recession fears, widespread altcoin selloffs, and a volatile risk-on environment. Simply put: Bitcoin is a screaming buy right now.
And when you compare Bitcoin’s market cap to the top tech giants, the gap is shocking – especially if you understand where Bitcoin is headed.
Market Cap Comparisons:
Apple – $2.904T (1.74× Bitcoin)
Microsoft – $2.752T (1.65×)
NVIDIA – $2.476T (1.48×)
Alphabet (Google) – $1.865T (1.12×)
Amazon – $1.825T (1.09×)
Meta – $1.261T (0.76×)
Tesla – $758.28B (0.45×)
In what world does it make sense that each of these individual tech companies is larger than Bitcoin – a decentralized, finite-supply digital asset that’s being integrated into the global financial system?
Together, those seven companies are worth $13.85 trillion. Add Saudi Aramco – the sixth-largest company globally at $1.654 trillion – and you still don’t reach the total market cap of gold.
At $3,354 per ounce, gold’s market cap sits at approximately $22.52 trillion.
Let that sink in.
Bitcoin is superior to gold in nearly every measurable way – yet gold’s market cap is still 12.79× larger than Bitcoin’s.
When the market turns – the Fed pivots, tariffs are rolled back, and confidence returns – Bitcoin will boom.
So the real equation, in terms of immediate upside, should look like this:
Bitcoin > Tech stocks > Major indexes
And over the long term (3–5 years):
Bitcoin >>> Tech stocks >>>>>> Major indexes
Bitcoin will blow past tech and legacy markets. Full stop.
Wall Street still doesn’t think this way. In many of their models, Bitcoin isn’t even part of the conversation. Gold is winning the moment, and it has earned it. But long term? I don’t see a scenario where it wins.
Bitcoin is faster, harder, stronger, scarcer – and its moment is coming.
When it arrives, it won’t even be close.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is currently holding above the 50-day moving average, but just barely. Price has been rejected from this level nearly every day for the past week, highlighting its significance as short-term resistance. The repeated failures to push higher show that bulls are lacking conviction - at least for now.
Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average and the key horizontal level at $88,804 loom just overhead. Market structure remains bearish, with a clear series of lower highs and lower lows still intact. A daily close above that horizontal resistance would break the pattern and signal a potential shift in trend, but until then, this remains a cautious bounce within a broader downtrend.
Stock Futures Rise On Trade Talk Optimism… For Now
US stock futures rose Thursday as traders reacted positively to early signs of progress in US–Japan trade talks, fueling optimism that broader tariff relief may be possible. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.9%, recovering part of Wednesday’s sharp losses. Sentiment was lifted by upbeat guidance from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which projected stronger-than-expected sales for the current quarter, boosting confidence in the battered tech sector.
President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” in trade negotiations with Japan, while Japan’s top negotiator noted that currency issues were not discussed – helping ease fears of exchange rate manipulation. However, despite the short-term optimism, uncertainty remains high. Treasury yields edged higher and the dollar regained ground after a five-day slide. Gold, which had hit another record earlier in the session, pulled back slightly as risk appetite improved.
Market watchers remain cautious. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley both issued warnings about US equities, with Citi downgrading its view and Morgan Stanley slashing its 2025 earnings-per-share forecast. Trump’s recent criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to tensions, though Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach on tariffs and inflation. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates for the seventh time – adding to the backdrop of global monetary easing.
Earnings season also brought volatility. UnitedHealth Group plunged 21% premarket after cutting its full-year outlook, while shares of Hermès dropped due to soft Chinese demand. Siemens Energy surged on improved revenue and income guidance. The US continues to press ahead with potential tariffs on sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, even as it opens the door to talks with countries including Japan.
While investors are encouraged by signs that negotiations may lead to tariff exemptions, strategists warn that the trade path remains highly unpredictable. With China demanding concessions and regional alliances shifting, markets remain hypersensitive to geopolitical developments and central bank signals.
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% as of 6:32 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.9%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.6%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.9%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.8%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1369
The British pound was little changed at $1.3233
The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 142.61 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2999 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin was little changed at $84,338.4
Ether rose 1.3% to $1,593.94
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.31%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.54%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $63.23 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,326.30 an ounce
Vitalik Makes The Case For Privacy
Vitalik makes a strong point in his blog: he argues that not everyone needs privacy to the same extent. “Privacy is less needed for people whose life situations are relatively normal, and more needed for people whose life situations deviate from the norm, in any direction.” I relate to this – there are people out there who actively want to SIM swap me, and some have succeeded in the past.
“And once you add up all of the different directions that matter, the number of people who really need privacy ends up being quite a lot – and you never know when you will become one of them.”
Unfortunately, privacy is one of the forgotten tenets of crypto. I’m sharing this segment because it’s easy to lose sight of its importance when we get caught up in adoption, utility, and price.
Mantra Releases A Statement To The Public
Here’s the cleaned-up version with consistent tone and formatting:
Above is the current OM chart, which shows there has been no price recovery. As for the contents of the statement, according to Mantra – which has reiterated this multiple times – “there were no sales at all by the MANTRA team.” For now, we can accept this as fact, as I haven’t seen it definitively disproved anywhere.
Now, for the explanation:
“The timing of these forced liquidations – occurring during historically low trading volume hours – initiated a sequential market reaction:
Initial forced liquidation sales exerted downward price pressure.
The resulting price decline triggered automated liquidation events across exchanges for leveraged positions using OM as collateral.
These subsequent liquidations and collateral seizures generated additional downward selling pressure.
As illustrated in the chart below, a divergence in OM spot price between OKX and Binance was noted around 18:00 UTC.
A self-reinforcing market cycle developed, significantly and negatively impacting token price.”
If everything Mantra says is accurate, then yes – this does sound somewhat reminiscent of what happened with LUNA. The cascading effect of collateral liquidations triggering a feedback loop is familiar. The key differences are scale and mechanism (LUNA involved an algorithmic stablecoin), but the structural fragility and domino effect feel eerily similar.
I don’t have all the answers, but there are two points worth considering:
A) In October 2024, Mantra doubled its token supply – which is odd timing.
B) There are persistent rumors surrounding the leadership team – feel free to explore those at your own discretion.
Mantra included a short section on “Planned Actions,” which outlined the following:
MANTRA will release details of an OM token support plan, including a buyback and supply burn.
CEO John Patrick Mullin has publicly committed to burning his team allocation.
MANTRA has invited centralized exchange partners to collaborate in providing more transparency on trading activity during the event.
Personally, I don’t see how a token buyback or the CEO burning his allocation will meaningfully change the outcome. I’m not optimistic about the token’s recovery.
VanEck Pitches BitBonds
Similar to the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s, “Bitcoin-Enhanced US Treasury Bonds (‘₿ Bonds’ or ‘BitBonds’)” Matthew Siegel from VanEck pitched the concept of “BitBonds” - US Treasury bonds with exposure to Bitcoin - at the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Summit 2025 on April 15. According to Sigel, the proposed 10-year bonds would blend 90% conventional debt with 10% Bitcoin exposure, aiming to attract both the U.S. Treasury and international investors. Siegel added that, “Even in a scenario where Bitcoin ‘goes to zero,’ BitBonds would allow the US to save money to refinance an estimated $14 trillion of debt that will mature in the next three years.”
For how it would be structured, the proposed 10-year BitBond would offer a $90 fixed return, plus the added value of any Bitcoin appreciation. Investors would receive all BTC-related gains up to an annualized yield of 4.5%. If Bitcoin performs well enough to push returns beyond that threshold, any additional gains would be split evenly - 50/50 - between the government and the bondholder, Sigel explained. Essentially, all of this is nearly identical to what the Bitcoin Policy Institute released three weeks ago. How epic would it be if the U.S. government went for this?
Gary Gensler Is Bullish On Bitcoin?!?!
Is Gary Gensler starting to sound like a Bitcoin maximalist? Judge for yourself.
“If you were interested in [crypto], think about [how] every financial asset sort of trades on a bit of fundamentals and sentiment, but this field is almost 99% – or maybe one might say 100% – sentiment and very little on fundamentals. And while something like Bitcoin may persist for a long time, because there’s 7 billion people around the globe, a real keen interest in it, there’s 10,000 or 15,000 others of these tokens, and to think through your own risk, your own personal risk, about where are the fundamentals, and if this is just about sentiment, then generally those don’t end up well, and most then go down…
Think of these 10,000 or 15,000 other tokens, and just on the economics, just on the fundamentals, what are the fundamentals?
In metals, there’s only two or three precious metals. We humans have a certain fascination with only two or three precious metals, like with gold. I don’t think we humans will have a fascination with 10,000 or 15,000 meme or sentiment tokens trading over the years.”
Is Bitcoin Doomed? Political Chaos & Trade Wars Are Brewing A Crypto Storm!
Join me live with Sasha Mitchell, Founder and CEO of Elacity, as we dive into the latest developments in crypto. We’ll explore what’s next for Bitcoin amid rising trade wars and a shifting political landscape.
Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.