The Wolf Den #118 - Chart Requests And More
Ethereum
ETH/BTC
I thought it was wise to dedicate a section to Ethereum occasionally. I think the BTC pair is interesting here, and chose to eliminate the noise from the candle chart to give a macro look at this asset. This is the weekly.
The red check marks show the macro downtrend that started at the all time highs. You can see the series of lower highs and lower lows. Since bottoming, we have seen a new trend of higher highs and higher lows, a fresh bullish trend. We recently confirmed the last higher low by making another higher high. That higher high would be confirmed by making a higher low, anything above the red line.
That said, the macro downtrend is not technically over until the top blue line is broken, which would make a higher high since the all time high. Confusing. I know.
Also of note is that the 50 MA on the weekly is currently support price. This is a really key line, so you would look for it to hold.
I added this descending black line to the line chart, which is really interesting. When you eliminate candles here, we have a clear retest of the downtrend two weeks ago and bounce off. As of now, price is breaking below that line... but this week has not closed. It could still easily close above that descending black line, which would amount to a nice retest of resistance as support. Watch and see if that happens.
The daily chart remains uninspiring. Clear downtrend, so we want to see that descending black line broken before thinking this is a reversal. That said, we had a confirmed bull div (blue) which caused a nice big move up, and now we once again have potential (NOT CONFIRMED) bullish divergence (pink). We need to see RSI make a definitive elbow up. Price is also hovering above a key support.
People are calling this a double bottom, which is incorrect. We would need to see price reverse here and then break the swing high between the two bottoms before it was confirmed.
ETH/USD
Let's take a look at the weekly ETH/USD line chart as well. We see something similar, although this looks more bullish to me. We have macro lower highs and lower lows, followed by a nice bullish uptrend. Technically a macro higher high would come up the top blue line. A lower low to end the new bull trend below the red line. For now, this looks like generally bullish movement, but always remember that can remain true even with a sizable drop.
Daily chart. This reached the target that I have been discussing for weeks, the top of the blue trading range. It also made a potential bearish SFP by wicking above and then closing below, so this is a time to exercise caution. If Bitcoin corrects, it's likely that ETH will suffer on both the BTC and USD pairs. This could be a bit of a canary in the coal mine. I am not touching ETH until it is closing candles above the range. For now, bullish market structure remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows.
The 4 hour chart shows a clean ascending channel has formed, with price bouncing nicely off of the EQ (equilibrium, center dashed line). This is NOT A BEAR FLAG. Bear flags only exist at the bottom of a flagpole. This is also NOT A BULL FLAG. A bull flag is a descending channel at the top of a flagpole.
This continues to look bullish as long as it holds the bottom support.
Still, this is going to do what Bitcoin does, and Bitcoin has been a better bet than ETH against USD.
Chart Requests
As always, I charted subscriber requests on Wednesday at 2PM EST. Here is the video:
ADA/BTC
ADA has not triggered on the setup that I shared the other day, which is fine. I have drawn a new level of support, which lines up with demand on the daily chart. Price is currently testing that area and still showing potential bullish divergence. We really need to see a more definitive elbow up on RSI to confirm the divergence, so it's not there yet. The safest entry remains a break of the descending blue line - not much has changed. If you do want to enter in the present area, that line would be the first target rather than the entry.
ANKR/BTC
Interesting chart. It is currently sitting right around a major support at 43 sats. That is a 100% retrace of the last huge pump on the left side of the chart. This would be a very nice place to reverse and bounce, but nothing is guaranteed, especially with Bitcoin going crazy. We have potential bullish divergence on the daily chart with RSI, although it is far confirmed. We need to see a clear elbow up on RSI. The safest entries are breaks of the descending lines, because those would show local and macro reversals are likely.
BQX/BTC (VGX)
Voyager is sitting on a key support level which coincides with demand (discussed in the video). I like this area if it holds, but hard to know. We broke through the first red line, but I have added a second just to be more honest with the chart. Key levels are marked. Sorry to not be able to give a clearer analysis, but all of these alts are in the same boat - not sign of reversal yet.
DOGE/BTC
DOGE has retraced almost to its historical lows at 15 sats. This is where I was able to enter two massive bullish cycles in 2017, so I am very interested. This has not followed its pattern this year, so there are no guarantees that this will do a classic DOGE pump again, but I still think it is worth taking a small position in case this rockets for another easy 8-10X. You can see the key areas on the weekly, although they are hard to discern on a chart that moves like this. The other major level in the low 20s has been a major support and is likely to be resistance if this starts to move.
PLTR (PALANTIR)
I personally would not touch this here. It has clear bearish divergence with overbought RSI and I don't like the doji with the down candle after. It is trading back up a bit premarket, but I still don't love it. We also have the steep ascending channel, so a break of the bottom would be a clear short. Not much price again, so hard to give a great analysis.
TSLA (TESLA)
I shared this bull pennant before on the weekly which has broken up with style. Tesla looks bullish, hard to make any other argument. The target of this bull pennant is shown above, depending where you choose to start the flagpole. I expect all time high price discovery again soon.
WAR
Please watch the video, my chart for this is not working.
Mexico's 3rd Richest Man Has 10% BTC Position
Another day, another billionaire divulging that they hold Bitcoin. They're already here, they are just finally willing to admit it!
Trump Nominates Crypto-Friendly Comptroller
In what may be Trump’s last appointment before leaving office, Brian Brooks is Trump’s pick to act as the Comptroller of the OCC. Brian Brooks is an accepted member of the cryptocurrency community and has even served as an advisor to Coinbase in the past. The nomination does not guarantee the position - Brooks still needs approval from the Senate to be confirmed. Brooks has already been serving as the acting OCC since the last one resigned. This leads us to believe his approval is likely that it will bring positive regulation in the crypto space. One of Brooks’s best contributions was his elimination of state laws governing exchange licensing and approving a more friendly federal application process.
Citibank Predicts 20% Dollar Crash
Nice confluence for what I have been saying and have believed for a long time - that the dollar will continue to decline in the coming years and that Bitcoin will continue to rise.
“Vaccine distribution we believe will check off all of our bear market signposts, allowing the dollar to follow a similar path to that it experienced from the early to mid-2000s,” Mr. Tse said. “Can the dollar decline 20 percent next year alone? We think yes.”
There's a reason that billionaires and corporations are starting to hedge their bets with Bitcoin - because dollar weakness is coming.
Bitcoin Greed Almost Matches All Time High
A price reversal may be incoming if the historically accurate metric calls the top like in 2019
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 94 - one point shy of the 95 point all time high from June 26th, 2019. The scale only goes to 100! This is really worth watching, as it could be an indicator that a retrace is coming sooner than later. Read the article.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Eliza Orlins
Eliza Orlins has spent over a decade serving the citizens of New York City as a public defender. Now she is taking her fight to the political arena, running for the position of Manhattan DA. Her goal is to fundamentally alter a rigged system that serves the powerful and elite and punishes the poor and disenfranchised. The job has only been held by white men - upon her election she would be the first female to hold the position.
We further discuss what it's like to run for office, competing on Survivor, her plans as district attorney, career prosecutors, lock em’ up culture, defeating the boys club, broken windows policing, the price of a prisoner, accepting cryptocurrency in her campaign, campaign finance reform, getting arrested on an empty subway and more.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.