The Wolf Den #1174 - Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday…
Bring it on.
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In This Issue:
Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday…
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Yesterday Morning Was A Movie
Desperate Times Call For Desperate Memecoin Measures
CZ Is Advising Pakistan
Bitcoin Collapses! $11 Trillion Erased | Global Financial Crisis Coming? | Black Macro Monday
Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday…
Michael Saylor, at the helm of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), began accumulating Bitcoin exactly 4 years, 7 months, and 29 days ago. Since then, he’s amassed a staggering 528,185 BTC. Today, the price sits just $10,000 shy of his average cost basis.
After nearly five years of unwavering conviction – putting the reputation of his 35-year-old company on the line – Saylor now finds himself barely ahead of where he started… and slipping backward.
The Bitcoin dream has turned into a potential nightmare.
At this point, it’s hard to ignore the irony: Michael Saylor might be one of the worst traders in modern history. Roughly one-fifth of all Bitcoin purchased under his leadership (126,177 BTC) was bought above $90,000. He’s bought in the $90K range eight times and over $100K on four separate occasions.
So, despite the narrative that Saylor “buys the dip,” the reality is… he hasn’t.
Here are all of this year’s purchases – nine in total, with six of them above $90,000. Saylor caught the dip just three times: at $82.9K, $84.5K, and $86.9K. But let’s be honest, that $82.9K buy barely counts – it was only 130 BTC. You can see the full breakdown below.
What can we conclude from this? Is it really fair to call Saylor one of the worst traders?
By the numbers, he’s undeniably failed to time the market. But on the flip side, he’s mastered something far more difficult – the art of size. Nobody in the game has come remotely close to accumulating Bitcoin at his scale, and that alone deserves a different kind of respect.
We can also conclude something much broader – no amount of money, influence, or elite access can consistently help you time the market. While we can’t confirm this, it’s safe to assume that if Saylor wanted to, he could call up Ray Dalio or Ken Griffin and have a team of quants and researchers running fresh models for him by dinner. It wouldn’t matter.
There’s a reason some people make a living analyzing markets and others make a living in them. They’re two very different games. One is built on models, theories, and probabilities. The other is about conviction, risk, and skin in the game. You can have the data, the network, and the capital – and still lose to someone with a stronger stomach and longer timeline.
Another major takeaway is this: there’s never been a better moment for companies to enter the Bitcoin arena at a cost basis that’s not far from Strategy’s. While matching them in scale is unlikely anytime soon, the opportunity to accumulate BTC near Saylor’s average is a rare gift from the market gods.
And those gods, by the way, seem to have a very dark sense of humor. Strategy gives off the vibe of having a ‘low cost average,’ but their real average sits at $67,458 – far higher than most people assume, especially considering how early they began. It’s cruel, in a way. But that’s crypto.
Maybe it’s why we’re all a little jaded. A little tribal. A little too online. Because if you stick around long enough, you learn that conviction always costs more than you think – and the price of being early is often more pain than reward.
We have unlocked a new bottom signal: Saylor hate has returned.
For the record, I don’t actually think Saylor is bad at what he does - that was all satire to make a bigger point. You can’t time the market, and now happens to be a pretty compelling moment to get off the sidelines. Even the best-of-the-best miss the mark; nobody nails it every time unless your name starts with Warren and ends with Buffett. And even then… he famously faded Bitcoin - a generational miss he’ll never get back.
Now, on to two other big topics: Ethereum and Trump.
This post definitely earns a spot in my personal X Hall of Fame. Trust me, I hate to see it as much as the next guy - but it’s kind of legendary. And honestly, it’s just one more reason to believe we’ve got to be very close to the bottom.
Also, thank you, Eric Trump.
For Ethereum, this feels like a make-or-break moment - not unlike where Solana stood in the aftermath of the FTX collapse. The difference? Solana had a scapegoat. Ethereum doesn’t. There’s no single villain, no obvious fix, no easy narrative. A return to QE might help soften the blow, but let’s be honest - Ethereum is staring down an identity crisis from multiple angles: leadership, monetization, scalability, L2 dynamics, and even its relevance in the broader market.
If Ethereum can weather this, it’ll solidify its status as a permanent fixture in crypto’s core. But we can no longer lean on the old hierarchy - Bitcoin, Ethereum, then everything else - as gospel. ETH’s performance over the last two years forces us to reassess that pecking order. And here’s the harsh truth: altcoins need Ethereum to make it. I struggle to imagine a version of this market where the rest of the ecosystem thrives while Ethereum flounders.
Now, onto the last topic on my list: Trump.
Where do we even begin?
Like it or not, Trump is the central force behind this market collapse. Sure, we were probably due for a correction after two monster years of gains. But this wasn’t your standard, cyclical cooldown - it was a full-blown political detonation. The trade war. The recession fears. The executive orders. The chaos. This wasn't some natural downturn - it was manufactured.
One man. One set of decisions. One giant shockwave across global markets. That’s a sobering reality - even if, when the dust settles, some economists end up arguing it was for the greater good.
That’s where we are.
I don’t want to condemn Trump for the market’s performance - because doing that would mean I’d have to credit him when it eventually rebounds. And frankly, I’m not interested in handing out gold stars to anyone who stirs this much volatility. What I do want to do is voice how deeply frustrating it is that a single person seems to be pulling every string - shaping the entire market on a whim.
Maybe after a little time and perspective, I’ll look back and admit I was being dramatic. Maybe. But even then, I don’t think I’ll shake the discomfort of it all. One man shouldn't have this much sway. Yes, people are reacting of their own free will, making decisions in response to him - but that doesn’t make it any less unsettling.
It just makes me wonder: who actually wants to be part of a market that feels this fragile?
We all see how volatile Bitcoin is — how tightly it’s coupled to the broader risk-asset class — but if there’s any hope of escaping this circus, it’s Bitcoin. Not gold. Not tech stocks. Not real estate. Maybe the silver lining in all of Trump’s antics is that they’ll cast a spotlight on decentralization and spark a fresh narrative for Bitcoin.
Yes, Bitcoin is still tethered to the broader market — but at least in principle, it’s not a product of the U.S. or entirely dependent on it. Let’s not forget: Bitcoin made it this far while the U.S. was actively trying to kill it. If the U.S. continues down the path of supporting Bitcoin, great — but even if it doesn’t, Bitcoin still rises. It’s a globally distributed asset. That’s the whole point.
Right now, everything’s on sale. It doesn’t matter what kind of investor you are — what matters is holding onto what you’ve got and adding more if it fits your plan. Opportunity is always forged in fire — it never comes free. Every great investor you admire has stared into the abyss, maybe even trembling inside — but they didn’t look away.
Crypto is inherently a harder game. The upside is enormous — but so is the cost to play. I’m not budging, no matter what happens. Either I take an epic gamble and fail giving it my best shot — or I’m eventually proven right. Saylor is the same. Honestly, so is Trump.
We’re all a little crazy. At this point, you’d be crazy to be normal.
Bring it on.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin printed a small bounce yesterday after a strong breakdown, but the technicals remain mixed. Let’s break it down.
The most obvious development is the death cross – the 50 MA has now crossed below the 200 MA. While this is considered a bearish signal, it’s also a lagging indicator, often reflecting past weakness rather than predicting future price action. The last time we saw a death cross on the daily chart, it came near the bottom, so take it with a grain of salt.
More interesting is yesterday’s candle – a small-bodied candle with long wicks on both sides, forming something of a doji. That reflects indecision after a high-volume breakdown. Bulls stepped in to defend just above the $73,800 support zone, which aligns with the May 2024 all-time high and previous resistance turned support.
Price is still trading well below both moving averages, which are now resistance. The triangle breakdown remains intact, and momentum has clearly shifted lower – but holding this horizontal support zone would at least keep the higher timeframe bullish structure alive.
In short: death cross, indecision candle, and a critical support retest. Bulls need to prove themselves quickly – otherwise, the path of least resistance could remain down.
Stocks Rebound as Japan Signals Openness to New Trade Deals
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 1.5% as of 6:42 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.6%
The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0938
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2766
The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 146.95 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $79,132.54
Ether was little changed at $1,570.66
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.16%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.63%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $61 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,007.20 an ounce
Yesterday Morning Was A Movie
A false rumor that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs (excluding China) briefly sent U.S. stocks soaring on Monday – triggering a full-blown volatility spiral. The claim first made the rounds on X, was picked up by CNBC as “unverified,” and then echoed by Reuters. Within minutes, the market added trillions in gains – all without a credible source.
The White House quickly stepped in to deny the rumor, clarifying that economic adviser Kevin Hassett never mentioned a tariff pause during his earlier Fox News appearance.
All in all, it just goes to show how desperate this market is for a reason – any reason – to reverse. When the right news finally comes, it won’t take much to light the fuse.
Desperate Times Call For Desperate Memecoin Measures
Pump.fun’s controversial livestream feature — the same one that helped spark over 69,000 token launches per day back in November — is making a comeback. Oh boy.
It’s hard to imagine this ending well, especially considering how disastrously it played out the first time. The initial rollout was a chaotic mess, riddled with everything from graphic violence and child abuse to blackmail, animal cruelty, and blatant fraud. It quickly devolved into one of the worst examples of unmoderated crypto chaos the space has seen.
This time around, Pump.fun claims it’s enforcing a strict moderation policy to clean things up and protect viewers — a necessary step if the platform hopes to revive interest without triggering another PR firestorm. Whether that’s enough to bring back users or prevent another content disaster is still very much up in the air.
CZ Is Advising Pakiston
Following his departure from Binance and a brief stint behind bars, CZ is already reestablishing his presence in the crypto world – this time, with a more diplomatic twist. The Pakistan Crypto Council has just appointed Changpeng Zhao as a Strategic Advisor, signaling a serious commitment from the country to embrace digital finance.
The announcement follows high-level meetings in Islamabad and makes it clear: Pakistan is gearing up to roll out a regulatory framework for crypto. And CZ, despite everything, is still viewed as one of the sharpest minds in the space.
Pakistan isn’t the only one seeking his guidance – he’s also reportedly advising the Kyrgyz Republic on crypto regulation and blockchain infrastructure. The king may have been temporarily dethroned, but he’s back in the game – just wearing a different crown.
Bitcoin Collapses! $11 Trillion Erased | Global Financial Crisis Coming? | Black Macro Monday
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.