The Wolf Den #1171 - There Will Always Be Doubt
Embrace it.
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In This Issue:
There Will Always Be Doubt
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Thoughts
Tarrifying - Legacy Markets
Trump’s Tariffs Are Here
Fidelity Launches A Crypto Retirement Plan
Some Stablecoins Aren’t So Stable
Ripple, Solana, and Chainlink Are Making Moves
Tariff Tsunami Incoming: Will Bitcoin Boom or Bust? | Liberation Day
There Will Always Be Doubt
Here’s a more refined and intelligent version with improved flow and tone, while preserving your voice and message:
In the back of my mind, I always believed that Bitcoin crossing $100,000 would be the most powerful marketing moment in its 15-year history.
The moment it broke that threshold – and held it – would trigger a cascade of mainstream interest: surging adoption, a media blitz, and a wave of institutional confidence.
$100,000 wasn’t just a milestone. It was supposed to be a psychological turning point – the line that would cement Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a global financial asset.
But it turns out the bull in me may have been a little too bullish.
After breaking $100,000, Bitcoin rallied just 8% more, topping out around $108,000 before slipping back under the mark. It stayed there for more than two weeks. Then came a second push – up 9% this time – before falling again, where it’s remained for over two months and counting.
I remember writing about what $100,000 would mean to different audiences:
For Bitcoiners, it would be the long-awaited vindication – proof that the vision was right.
For gold bugs, a direct challenge to their store-of-value narrative.
For institutions, a green light for deeper allocation.
For altcoiners, a reminder that Bitcoin moves first – but they’re next.
For skeptics, one more moment of doubt.
But now, with hindsight, it seems $100,000 didn’t really mean anything at all.
And Bitcoiners? We’re left more confused than vindicated.
Goldbugs are doing the happy dance…
Institutions are facing record outflows…
Altcoiners can’t escape the pain…
And no coiners, well, they are probably doing just fine…
Here are two no coiners – completely random old men in this stock photo – who called Bitcoin a speculative bubble back in 2017. Fast forward a few years: the 2021 rally? Fueled by COVID stimulus, zero interest rates, and the everything-bubble vibe. The 2024 surge? That’s the Donald Trump pump and a few bold promises echoing out of D.C.
Somebody get this man a Cherry Coke.
We all expected $100,000 to light the skies like the Bitcoin Bat Signal – shifting public perception, inspiring headlines, and planting a giant orange billboard in the middle of Wall Street. But… it didn’t. Not even close.
In 2021, we thought a return to all-time highs would catapult us to $100K overnight. It didn’t. Instead, we got punched in the face by a vicious bear market. In early 2024, déjà vu – we reclaimed the highs, celebrated too soon, and were promptly rewarded with a six-month bleed-out. That’s just how it goes in this space.
The truth is, there’s never been a moment in Bitcoin’s history – or in crypto at large – that wasn’t steeped in doubt. During rallies, it's silenced by FOMO. In downturns, it becomes the dominant voice. But it never actually disappears. Not at $100K. Not at $250K. Not even at $1 million.
If there's one thing I’ve learned – and yeah, it took a few hard lessons – it’s that doubt doesn’t die. It just morphs. Even now, as the U.S. is flirting with the idea of building a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, there are people who think it is a bad idea.
Somehow, in this industry, skepticism is ALWAYS in a bull market.
We don’t even have a Bitcoin reserve yet, and it’ll likely be a while before the U.S. openly starts buying – but already, critics are sounding the alarm. Some argue it could “undermine, not support, the dollar,” while others warn that “a future Democratic administration would undoubtedly sell off the reserve immediately, causing chaos in Bitcoin markets.”
That perspective comes from Nic Carter – a long-time Bitcoiner, highly respected and sharp as they come. Personally, I believe a Bitcoin Reserve is a net positive and I’ll continue to use my voice to support it. But Nic raises a fair point, and it’s a conversation worth having. I can see his view gaining traction over time.
The bigger takeaway? There will always be doubt.
When the price falls, doubt flares up – driven by red candles, headlines, and fear. When the price climbs, doubt doesn’t disappear, it just changes shape. Maybe it starts revolving around Bitcoin’s dominance becoming too large, its reserve status making it systemically risky, or concerns we haven’t even dreamed up yet.
$100,000 turned out to be just another marker on the chart – not a signal, not a breakout moment, and not the psychological trigger we hoped it would be. I was naive to think it would change everything, that Bitcoin could defy macro forces, or that altcoiners and gold bugs would suddenly rethink their worldview.
That’s the fun part about writing this newsletter – some calls land, and others... not so much.
But there’s one thing I did get right, and I’ll give myself a small pat on the back for this…
I guess I got that part right.
In the long run – and I do mean long – I still believe what I wrote when Bitcoin first crossed $100,000 will hold up. Bitcoiners will get their vindication. Altcoiners will have their turn. Institutions will double down with quiet conviction. Gold bugs? They’ll be left clutching their bars while digital gold laps them in real time. And the no-coiners… they’ll feel the searing heat of Satoshi’s silent “I told you so.”
It won’t unfold like some tidy Disney movie (and I mean classic Disney, not whatever factory-farmed stuff they’re pushing these days), but I do think there’s a happy ending somewhere ahead – likely when no one’s expecting it. If there’s a lesson here, it’s that price is rarely the story we think it is, and doubt only has power when we give it too much attention.
Also, let’s not forget – $100,000 is a human construct. When Bitcoin crossed that threshold, it was ¥14,879,201 in Japanese yen or €92,435 in euros. It’s just a round number in one currency. The meaning we assign it? That’s all in our heads.
And hey, if it makes you feel any better – since I wrote that intro, we’ve dropped a category lower - from “HODL” to “Still Cheap.”
Bitcoin will eventually reclaim $100,000 and push well beyond it – but the road there won’t be smooth. It never is. The path will be lined with uncertainty, fear, and setbacks that test conviction at every step. And yet, paradoxically, it’s that very doubt that drives Bitcoin higher.
Doubt forces the market to question itself. It shakes out the weak hands, resets expectations, and clears the runway for what comes next. Every major rally in Bitcoin’s history was born in the depths of disbelief – when doubt was loudest, and selling felt safest.
But doubt is a double-edged sword. For some, it’s a reason to exit. For others, it’s the reason to double down.
It clears the room for new believers. It ignites builders, thinkers, and visionaries to lean in harder. And whether you see it as a threat or a gift is entirely up to you.
Doubt’s not going anywhere.
The only question is what you’ll do with it.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to coil within the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, now approaching the apex with growing tension. Price was sharply rejected from both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but critically – it held diagonal support. That alone keeps the structure intact and the potential for a breakout alive.
Volume ticked up slightly, showing there’s still life in this move. Until the lower trendline gives way, this remains a neutral-to-bullish consolidation pattern. A clean break above the descending resistance would likely ignite a new leg up, especially if confirmed with volume. Conversely, a break below support would invalidate the higher lows and flip the bias bearish.
With both moving averages pressing down and support refusing to break, Bitcoin is playing a game of tug-of-war – and the winner could set the tone for weeks to come.
Altcoin Thoughts
Alts are getting slaughtered. There’s no reason to believe this will change much in the short term, so I am not going to spam a bunch of chart setups that will likely fail.
Welcome to 2025.
Tarrifying - Legacy Markets
Global markets sold off sharply as investors fled riskier assets following President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, heightening fears of a global economic slowdown. S&P 500 futures plunged more than 3%, signaling steep losses at the Wall Street open, with major technology companies bearing the brunt. Apple shares fell about 7% in premarket trading, while Amazon, Dell, and Tesla dropped more than 4%. Retail and apparel companies, including Nike and Deckers Outdoor, suffered steep declines of around 11%, heavily impacted by tariffs targeting manufacturing hubs like Vietnam.
European stocks mirrored the downturn, with consumer goods giants Adidas and Puma sliding almost 10%, dragging the Stoxx 600 Index down 1.5%. Earlier, Asian equities also endured heavy losses, as Japan’s Nikkei fell nearly 3%, and stocks in Taiwan entered correction territory. Investors moved quickly to safety, driving yields on 10-year US Treasuries sharply lower toward 4%, the lowest level in more than five months, while gold surged to a fresh record high before stabilizing.
Economists expressed concern that Trump’s tariff escalation–imposing a minimum 10% tariff on all US imports and additional levies on major trading partners including China, Japan, and the EU–could cut US economic growth by as much as 1.5% this year while fueling significant consumer inflation. Deutsche Bank strategists warned of a potential "broader confidence crisis" in the dollar amid growing skepticism about the US economy’s resilience.
Commodity markets also reflected deepening pessimism about global demand, with Brent crude futures dropping more than 4%, and base metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc sharply lower. Citigroup analysts upgraded Treasuries to overweight, highlighting increasing risks to economic growth, and predicted further weakness for the dollar against the euro. With uncertainty elevated, investors appear braced for a volatile period ahead, anticipating extended and difficult negotiations that could exacerbate the impact of Trump’s protectionist policies.
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 3.4% as of 6:30 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 3.9%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.7%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 2%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.6%
The euro rose 2.1% to $1.1085
The British pound rose 1.4% to $1.3189
The Japanese yen rose 1.9% to 146.41 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 2.7% to $83,349.96
Ether fell 4.2% to $1,801.5
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.05%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.65%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.6% to $68.41 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,106.51 an ounce
Trump’s Tariffs Are Here
That’s a lot of tariffs.
I will take a few days to let this news sick in before commenting widely on my thoughts. That’s what we have “experts” for anyway.
Fidelity Launches A Crypto Retirement Plan
Fidelity is offering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin to U.S. citizens over 18 through a crypto IRA product with no fees. I have the full description and screenshots of the product below. The assets are custodied in a cold wallet by Fidelity, and customers can invest via Roth, traditional, or rollover IRAs. Reading through the product advertisement online, I have to commend Fidelity for distilling crypto to its essentials, making it easy for customers to understand. Investors familiar with crypto will likely be drawn to Fidelity, and I anticipate this product gaining traction and expanding over time.
Some Stablecoins Aren’t So Stable
So, this post went viral on the timeline yesterday:
I went over to Justin Sun’s account and saw this:
Neither First Digital Trust nor FDUSD are normally on my radar, but Justin Sun shared a CoinDesk article with the backstory - let’s dive in.
Where the story starts is Justin Sun revealed that he bailed out Techteryx's TrueUSD stablecoin after nearly $456 million of its reserves became illiquid due to improper diversion i.e. investments it couldn’t redeem. Where FDT comes into the picture is that Techteryx, which acquired TrueUSD in 2020, appointed Hong Kong-based First Digital Trust (FDT) to manage its reserves. Long story short, FDT did a terrible job managing the assets, may have committed fraud, and is now being alleged as insolvent, resulting in their stablecoin, FDUSD losing its peg and massive withdrawals taking place across the crypto ecosystem. The situation worsens as Binance holds approximately $1.67 billion in FDUSD reserves, raising concerns about liquidity, redemption, and Binance’s failed due diligence - along with questions about why it was promoting the stablecoin.
Bear in mind, this is a developing story:
This saga has only just begun. I expect more developments will unfold as the pieces come together, whether it leads to a lawsuit or a potential bank run.
Ripple, Solana, and Chainlink Are Making Moves
I have a quick two-part news update. First, PayPal is expanding its crypto strategy by adding Solana and Chainlink to its offerings for U.S. users. Second, Ripple has launched its flagship RLUSD stablecoin on Kraken, pushing its market cap close to $250 million. Though still small—ranked #222 on CoinMarketCap - RLUSD is gaining momentum and is also supported on LMAX Digital, Zero Hash, Bitstamp, and Bullish. For those that don’t know, RLUSD operates on the XRP and Ethereum ledger.
Tariff Tsunami Incoming: Will Bitcoin Boom or Bust? | Liberation Day
I’m joined by Stephen Stonberg, former CEO of Bittrex and now co-founder & CEO of Tabit Insurance, the first insurance company fully backed by Bitcoin. We dive into Trump’s explosive "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, what it means for global markets, and how this could send Bitcoin and crypto markets soaring—or crashing.
Sponsored by Aptos, check it out HERE.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.