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In This Issue:
The Golden Age
Aptos Weekly Review
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Trump’s Family Is Not Investing In Binance
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Diverges From Price
Ripple is Still Negotiating With The SEC
The GENIUS Act Is Progressing
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: The World Is Quietly Adopting Crypto – Country by Country!
The Golden Age
Who would have guessed that just three months into 2025, gold would already be smashing through all-time highs - breaking above $3,000 per ounce - while Bitcoin teeters dangerously close to free fall? Life comes at you fast.
Somehow, as a society, we decided ‘digital gold’ - just numbers on a screen - was a smarter play than the real thing, which actually shines, can be held in your hands, and is stockpiled by governments worldwide. A brilliant move on our part, clearly.
Over the past year, gold has been quietly doing everything Bitcoin promised to do. It's approaching all-time highs, up 12.4% year-to-date and an impressive 37% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is down nearly 14% this year, barely hanging onto a modest 10% gain over the same period. Objectively speaking, gold has been the superior store of value.
Gold investors have beaten inflation, outperformed stocks, and can now buy Bitcoin at a discount if they choose. Had we spent less time analyzing Bitcoin charts and more time stacking those Costco gold bars, we'd be laughing now. Remember that frenzy? People literally fought over gold bars, forcing Costco to move sales exclusively online.
Back then, I made fun of Costco shoppers who were buying gold just to rack up credit card points. I even wrote, "For me, it's simple: a Hotdog Combo and Bitcoin are all I need." Turns out, that joke was expensive - Bitcoin returned just 10% gains over the year, while gold soared 37%.
But if you haven't caught on yet - yes, I’m being sarcastic.
If I had a time machine, sure, I'd leverage Bitcoin to $109,026 and then flip it all into TRUMP coin right at the launch. But that’s not how this works. Instead, I’ll quote my actual perspective from that Costco gold-rush article one year ago:
"Personally, I don't see any 5-year period ahead where gold outperforms Bitcoin. For that reason, I'm out. I'd rather pass down Bitcoin than gold to my children."
That perspective hasn't changed.
One year into my five-year view, we're just getting started. It’s a little irritating to watch gold investors celebrate because they caught a trendy wave, but congrats to them - a win is a win. I’ll stick to Bitcoin.
To be fair, Bitcoin also attracts its share of trend-chasers. But beneath the surface, it’s rooted in libertarian principles, Austrian economics, sound money, and financial sovereignty. Right now, Bitcoin is just shedding those investors who haven't fully grasped its deeper purpose.
Yes, Bitcoin is vulnerable to macroeconomic events, politics, and geopolitical drama - but it feels like many holders aren't even paying attention to the broader forces at play. They're getting spooked by randomness and impatience.
I’ll stop ranting. Sometimes being right but early isn't enough. You have to stay right and be patient. If Q1 2025 isn't Bitcoin's moment, I’ll gladly wait until Q2, Q3, or even next year. My money’s on digital gold beating the old-school shiny version in the long run.
Gold investors have had their fun - and I genuinely think gold’s performance is foreshadowing what’s next for Bitcoin. Skeptics can mock Bitcoin - or Ethereum or Solana - but I’m not wavering.
Brian Armstrong recently put it perfectly: “I mean we're really entering a golden age for crypto here. The opportunity in front of us is unprecedented to update the financial system and increase economic freedom around the world. 2025 is going to be a very good year.”
Remember when Bitcoin holders with laser eyes were mocked because Bitcoin didn't immediately hit $100K? Well, eventually, it did - and those who stayed the course reaped the rewards. Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 again, and as many have predicted, we’re entering crypto’s golden age. It’s going to be extraordinary.
Gold may be nearing its peak - but Bitcoin’s golden age is just beginning, and that’s still the better bet.
Aptos Weekly Review
For those that don’t know, Aptos - one of the most exciting layer 1 blockchain competing with Solana and Ethereum—is now an official sponsor of this newsletter! Over the past few months, I’ve had the chance to get to know the Aptos team, create content with them, and watch this project accomplish incredible things.
Each week, I’ll provide an Aptos review, showcasing all the exciting announcements and milestones the network is achieving. This week, I want to start with the news that Aptos is hiring for tons of positions!
I checked the job board and saw well over 20 open positions at Aptos Labs - impressive! Roles range from “DeFi Liquidity Lead” to “Engineering Manager” to “Accelerator Marketing Manager.” If you're looking for a job in crypto, this is a great place to start. Landing a role at Coinbase, DCG, or Pantera is exciting, but if you're passionate about Aptos' mission, nothing beats this opportunity.
The next news I wanted to cover was this article, “Bluprynt Partners with Aptos Foundation to Bring U.S. Securities Law Documents On-Chain and Advance Tokenized Real-World Asset Solutions.”
Bluprynt has partnered with the Aptos Foundation to automate and tokenize “Form Reg D filings”, making it the first U.S. securities law document placed on-chain with metadata. This integration enables seamless compliance and enhances RWA in DeFi by allowing issuers to create, tokenize, and store filings on decentralized infrastructure. I have never seen this done before, kudos to Aptos for pulling it off.
Lastly, I want to end this segment with this fun fact: “Aptos just hit an all-time high in active projects (smart contracts) with 2,289 in total! The peak? March 5, with 280 active projects in a single day!”
That is all for this week, make sure to show Aptos some love - they’re a huge reason this newsletter remains free!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin confirmed a bullish divergence on the daily chart, with price making a lower low while RSI formed a higher low. This is a classic sign of weakening downside momentum and potential for a trend reversal or at least a short-term relief rally.
However, the 200-day moving average (around $83,645) is now acting as resistance. Bitcoin briefly tested this level but failed to break through convincingly. A clean break above the 200 MA would be a bullish signal and could open the door for a move toward the $85,010 level, which was key support before the recent breakdown.
One concern is that volume has not meaningfully increased during this bounce. A strong trend reversal is typically supported by rising volume, so the lack of follow-through could indicate that this is just a relief rally rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase, and a rejection at the 200 MA could lead to a retest of the $77,000–$78,000 support zone.
Legacy Markets
Global stocks rose as the threat of a US government shutdown eased and expectations grew that China will announce measures to boost consumer demand. S&P 500 futures gained 0.8% after Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer signaled that a stopgap funding bill is likely to pass, lifting sentiment after the S&P 500’s three-week slump passed the 10% correction threshold. Nasdaq 100 futures also gained 1%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4%, supported by strength in resources and consumer shares after Beijing announced plans to hold a press conference Monday detailing steps to stimulate consumption.
Treasuries gave back some of Thursday’s gains, which had pushed yields lower and lifted gold to a record. Gold remained just below $3,000 an ounce. The dollar strengthened for the third straight day, while the pound weakened after data showed the UK economy unexpectedly shrank at the start of 2025.
Investor sentiment remains fragile, with Trump’s trade war and policy uncertainty weighing on markets. US stocks have lost $5 trillion in value since Trump’s election, and the S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive down week. However, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett said a new bear market is unlikely, noting that further stock declines would likely trigger a shift in trade and monetary policy. Hartnett recommended buying the S&P 500 at 5,300 points, about 4% below current levels.
Among individual stocks, BMW fell 4.5% on weak China sales and the threat of tariffs on US deliveries. Kering SA plunged 14% after surprising investors by naming Demna Gvasalia as Gucci’s new artistic director. Brent crude rose about 1% after the US tightened sanctions on Russian energy payments.
Key events this week:
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% as of 6 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was unchanged at $1.0852
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2927
The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 148.99 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $82,813.26
Ether rose 2.9% to $1,894.9
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.30%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.88%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.69%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $67.28 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,998.64 an ounce
Trump’s Family Is Not Investing In Binance
It's surprising to see major publications like Bitcoin Magazine spread blatantly false stories without proper due diligence first. I don’t believe they do this intentionally, but the drive to be first often comes at the expense of integrity and fact-checking. I’m not even going to talk about the WSJ’s integrity, which was the publication who initially leaked the story.
Why can’t they at least say rumored or reportedly?
It wouldn’t make sense for the Trump family to strike a deal with CZ, who no longer has any operational control over the company due to his arrest and sentencing. While they could theoretically purchase some of CZ’s remaining shares, he has confirmed that no such discussions have taken place.
Since the original WSJ article included details of a pardon in the deal, CZ added this, “Feels like the article is motivated as an attack on the President and crypto, and the residual forces of the "war on crypto" from the last administration are still at work. CZ has no voting power with Binance, the whole story is fabricated.
Last point—the recent MGX Binance acquisition news wasn’t released through traditional media but came directly from sources on X. Traditional media still holds an anti-crypto agenda, hence this story.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Diverges From Price
Despite a 30% market correction since March 2024, Bitcoin's mining difficulty continues to rise, reaching 112.1 trillion. Traditionally, difficulty drops when Bitcoin's price falls, as inefficient miners shut down. However, this cycle is different—miners remain operational, indicating resilience despite market volatility.
The same divergence is occurring between total hash rate and price. The blue line above has remained near all-time highs, while the price has declined. While I’m not convinced that analyzing these metrics is particularly useful for predicting future price action, a secure network is a valuable network. Rising difficulty and hash rate indicate increasing security, which should ultimately support price growth down the road.
Ripple is Still Negotiating With The SEC
Since the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit ended in 2023 with Ripple securing a partial victory, the company has continued negotiations with the SEC over the token’s classification and a $125 million fine. The SEC is assessing whether XRP’s trading, and utility align more with a “commodity than a security,” drawing comparisons to Ethereum. While both XRP and ETH were initially issued through ICOs, Ethereum was later recognized as a commodity, avoiding legal action. The SEC, which already considers ETH a pure commodity, is now evaluating whether XRP can be classified the same way.
It sounds like this is almost finalized:
My guess is Ripple wins the upper hand in whatever deal is agreed upon.
The GENIUS Act Is Progressing
The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act of 2025 is a bipartisan bill aimed at creating a structured regulatory framework for payment stablecoins in the U.S. Legal experts, including Davis Polk, have weighed in on its merits, emphasizing its role in expanding financial inclusion, fostering innovation, and reinforcing the U.S. dollar's global position.
The bill will now move to the Senate floor, while a similar version awaits approval in the House.
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: The World Is Quietly Adopting Crypto – Country by Country!
Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin continues to see adoption by nations, addressing real-world challenges. A small step for Bitcoin, but a giant leap for global crypto adoption. Joining me today is Edan Yago, Core Contributor at BitcoinOS, to break down the latest news in crypto.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.