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In This Issue:
The High Price Bias
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Bitwise Files For Aptos ETF
BioNexus Adopts Ethereum Treasury Strategy
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade Goes Live On Testnet
World Liberty Financial Goes On Shopping Spree
Bitcoin Chaos & Insane Swings – Where Is Crypto Headed Next?!
The High Price Bias
In the early 1970s, two visionary friends, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, reshaped our understanding of human cognition by introducing the concept of cognitive bias—the systematic errors in thinking that influence our decisions. Today, more than 180 cognitive biases have been identified, with new ones constantly being added—a testament to the many ways our minds trick us.
I may not have studied all 180+, but I do know one thing: investors are walking case studies in flawed reasoning. There’s probably already a bias that captures what I’m about to discuss, but for the sake of originality, let’s introduce what I call the High Price Bias.
The High Price Bias is the cognitive trap that makes investors believe an asset is valuable only after it has reached a certain high price. Ever met someone who refuses to buy Bitcoin until it soars? That’s the High Price Bias in action.
This faulty logic usually stems from a few core assumptions:
If Bitcoin is trading higher, it must be of higher quality.
If Bitcoin is trading higher, it has “proven itself.”
While sometimes driven by FOMO, this bias often masquerades as rationality—when in reality, it’s just an emotional shortcut disguised as logic.
But the High Price Bias doesn’t just apply to “high” prices—it has an equally damaging inverse. There’s also the Low Price Bias, which causes investors to lose faith when Bitcoin drops. The thinking goes:
If Bitcoin is trading lower, something must be wrong with it.
If Bitcoin is trading lower, it must not be as valuable as people claim.
This bias affects both non-investors and Bitcoin holders alike. A non-investor who operates purely on this bias is like someone standing on a sinking ship, waiting for a miracle. Meanwhile, an investor who constantly questions Bitcoin's value when it dips is clinging to a life raft with one hand, unsure whether to let go or climb aboard.
Price is undeniably important—it’s a key metric in valuing an asset. But it should never be the sole metric. On its own, price is a distraction, pulling focus away from fundamentals, network effects, and long-term value. However, when paired with thorough research, compelling narratives, and on-chain analytics, price becomes a powerful signal—one that ties everything together.
Don’t fall victim to the High Price Bias. And if you know someone who has, send them this newsletter. If it weren’t for this bias, Bitcoin’s value would likely be far higher. But because it exists, the opportunity is still there for those who recognize it.
At the end of the day, it’s human biases that create inefficiencies in the market—and for those who spot them early, those inefficiencies can be incredibly profitable.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin's daily chart continues to recover after testing the 200-day moving average, which acted as strong support. $91,271 is currently acting as resistance.
Volume remains elevated following the massive rebound from $85,010, showing clear demand at lower levels. The next major hurdle is at $94,990, where sellers previously stepped in. A daily close above this level would confirm a breakout toward $99,860.
The 50-day moving average is still trending downward, and Bitcoin remains below it, so there is still work to do to fully regain bullish momentum. However, the structure has improved significantly, and the market is showing strength after a period of heavy selling.
If $91,271 fails to hold, Bitcoin could revisit the $85,000 region, but as long as price closes above that level, the trend remains in recovery mode.
Legacy Markets
Stock futures signaled a weaker open for Wall Street as tech stocks took a hit from disappointing earnings and fresh AI competition from China. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.4%, while S&P 500 futures dropped 1%. Marvell Technology plunged 15% after its revenue forecast disappointed investors, while CrowdStrike and MongoDB also declined sharply.
Alibaba’s new Qwen platform, touted as an AI model rivaling DeepSeek with significantly less data, added to pressure on US chip stocks, raising concerns about the dominance of American firms in AI.
European markets struggled as bond yields surged following Germany’s massive spending plans. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.6%, while Bunds extended their historic selloff from Wednesday. The bond rout rippled globally, with Japanese 10-year yields hitting a decade high and US Treasury yields climbing three basis points.
Investors are now focused on the European Central Bank’s meeting, where a 25 basis-point rate cut is expected. Meanwhile, the euro hovered near four-month highs as the dollar steadied following Wednesday’s sharp decline.
Key events this week:
Eurozone retail sales, ECB rate decision, Thursday
US trade, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks, Thursday
Fed’s Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic speak, Thursday
Eurozone GDP, Friday
US jobs report, Friday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives keynote speech at an event in New York hosted by University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Friday
Fed’s John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 1% as of 6:37 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0795
The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2880
The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.90 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $91,361.9
Ether rose 2.7% to $2,296.33
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.30%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.85%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.71%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $66.45 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,905.71 an ounce
Bitwise Files For Aptos ETF
Bitwise Asset Management has filed an S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list a spot Aptos (APT) exchange-traded fund (ETF). Aptos, a layer-1 blockchain developed by former Facebook employees, launched in October 2022 and is currently the 36th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. The proposed ETF aims to provide investors with direct exposure to APT without including staking features. Coinbase Custody is listed as the proposed custodian, but details such as the listing exchange, ticker symbol, and management fees have yet to be specified. This filing adds to Bitwise's recent efforts to expand its crypto ETF offerings, including filings for Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs.
BioNexus Adopts Ethereum Treasury Strategy
BioNexus Gene Lab Corp. (NASDAQ: BGLC) has announced an Ethereum-focused treasury strategy, claiming to be the first Nasdaq-listed company to do so. The company emphasizes Ethereum's staking capabilities and institutional credibility as key factors in this decision. Following the announcement, BioNexus shares surged significantly, reflecting investor confidence in the company's innovative approach.
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade Goes Live On Testnet
Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live on the Sepolia testnet but faces potential mainnet delays after issues arose during Holesky activation. The upgrade introduces key improvements in staking flexibility and scalability, with developers set to discuss next steps in an upcoming Ethereum core dev call.
World Liberty Financial Goes On Shopping Spree
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a decentralized finance venture associated with President Donald Trump and his family, has expanded its cryptocurrency holdings by acquiring $21.5 million worth of assets. The purchases include 4,468 Ether (ETH) at approximately $2,238 each, totaling $10 million; 110.6 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) at $90,415 each, also amounting to $10 million; and 3.42 million MOVE tokens at $0.438 apiece, equating to $1.5 million. These acquisitions come just days before the scheduled White House Crypto Summit on March 7, where President Trump is expected to meet with prominent figures in the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitcoin Chaos & Insane Swings – Where Is Crypto Headed Next?!
What's happening in crypto and global macro? Bitcoin's wild volatility is back, and the markets are going crazy. I'm joined by top macro and Bitcoin expert Noelle Acheson to break it all down for you!
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.