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In This Issue:
Do What Saylor Does
Arch Public Has Important News!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Citadel Is Ready To Enter Crypto
The SEC Is Meeting With Crypto Leaders
Franklin Templeton Files For A SOL Staking ETF
OKX Settles With The U.S.
Bitcoin Sell-Off: Why Crypto Markets Are Bleeding | Macro Monday
Do What Saylor Does
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is carrying the bull market on its back.
As of yesterday’s Bitcoin purchase, Strategy is now effectively halfway to holding one million BTC, sitting at exactly 499,096 Bitcoin. In just the first two months of 2025, the company has made six separate buys, adding 52,696 BTC at prices ranging from $94,004 to $105,596.
One key reason Strategy has been able to keep expanding its balance sheet for Bitcoin is the introduction of STRK—a new stock class, officially named “Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock.” The primary purpose of STRK is to raise funds for Bitcoin acquisitions and general business operations. STRK holders will receive quarterly dividends, though the payout percentage is yet to be determined. These dividends can be issued in cash, shares of MicroStrategy common stock, or a combination of both.
Following the launch of STRK, Strategy rebranded itself with a stronger Bitcoin focus and unveiled a new company homepage that prominently displays key Bitcoin stats for investors to track. I could talk about Strategy all day, but today’s focus isn’t the company—it’s the man behind it: Michael Saylor.
I recently picked up The Little Book of Bitcoin, written by my good friend Anthony Scaramucci—who, by the way, is a phenomenal storyteller. Right at the start, there’s a fascinating section about Saylor’s early investment career that many might not know. In the foreword, Saylor shares key moments that shaped his philosophy—lessons that ultimately led him to Bitcoin.
This is the story, as told by Scaramucci, of meeting Saylor and his pivotal early investments:
"I first met Saylor over Zoom during the pandemic, well after he had established himself as a voice of authority in the Bitcoin community… In advance of our meeting, I read his 2012 book, ‘The Mobile Wave’ and immediately proceeded to flog myself for not reading it earlier. I would’ve made a fortune. In it, Saylor laid out why Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Google were going to decimate the world… In his views, these tech giants weren’t even companies — they were networks. Networks for retail (Amazon), networks for social outlets (Facebook, now Meta), networks for information (Google, now Alphabet). They were vehicles that dematerialized products and services…
These companies were going to destroy or change every industry they touched. And they were going to make a fortune doing so. With Apple, Facebook, and Google trading at all-year highs in the early 2010s and every investor screaming ‘bubble,’ Saylor ignored the prices of these behemoths and instead focused on the factors that were driving them. He proceeded to buy $50 million worth of those stocks. He turned it into $500 million.
The move netted him a small fortune, but it did something else, it awakened a simple investment principle that would guide him, and it was this: if you want to make money, find a dominant digital network, and invest in it, and then invest in it some more. Eventually, all the doubters, all the haters, all the people who mocked it and didn’t understand the technology, who applied traditional metrics to a never-before seen asset, those same people would have to come around, because not owning those networks would be tantamount to shorting the market.
But Saylor’s success was not without regrets, albeit high-quality ones. He regretted not buying more, and he regretted ever selling. Most investors would be thrilled with making 10 times their money. And to be fair, Saylor was. But what bothered him most was that in his gut he knew these companies were more than just stocks. They were change agents. They represented physical shares in progress, in the future he always held dear. So, to Saylor, selling or not buying more, didn’t represent a prudent financial decision. In some ways, it was the opposite. He let price, not promise, determine his actions.
He had another regret as well.
While the investment was a personal success, his company didn’t participate, and that missed opportunity left a lasting impression on him. He made a promise to himself. If ever there were a transformative technology to come around again, he wouldn’t simply buy a position and write a book about it. No, he would never make that mistake again. Instead, he would buy it personally and corporately and then tweet about it religiously.
Bitcoin would be the second chance."
Michael Saylor has clearly learned from his past, and it shows in how he approaches Bitcoin today. The next time Strategy buys Bitcoin, it will surpass 500,000 BTC under management—more than the total net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch last year. While this stat won’t hold forever, it underscores how seriously Saylor is taking this opportunity and how deeply he’s applying the lessons from his past investments.
Be proud of whatever Bitcoin you own—whether it’s 0.001 BTC, a full coin, or more. But just as importantly, be confident in your approach. Opportunities like Bitcoin don’t come around often. You don’t want to look back years from now and regret not taking it seriously when you had the chance.
Arch Public Has Important News!
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Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has seen a significant breakdown, losing key support around 95,000 and accelerating downward toward the demand zone around 89,000. Price wicked below this level before recovering slightly, suggesting buyers are stepping in at this historically important range. However, the overall structure remains bearish, with the 50-day moving average now acting as resistance and the trend showing clear lower highs and lower lows. Volume has spiked, confirming strong selling pressure, but it remains to be seen whether this is a true reversal point or just a temporary pause before further downside. Bulls need a decisive reclaim of lost support levels, while failure to hold above 89,000 could open the door for deeper corrections toward the next key support levels.
$74,000 is the previous all time high that was never tested as support - you have heard me talk about it MANY times.
Altcoin Charts
Do I need to remind you that altcoins are struggling and continue to look like garbage? Not really… they have been avoidable for quite a long time, so nothing to see here for the moment unless you are catching knives on your favorite tokens.
Legacy Markets
U.S. stock futures slipped as chipmakers came under pressure following President Trump’s latest push to curb China’s semiconductor industry. Nvidia, ASML, and STMicroelectronics declined in early trading as Trump outlined further restrictions and urged allies to do the same. The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs on Mexico and Canada has led investors to seek safety in Treasuries and gold, while the VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” climbed to its highest level this year.
Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday is expected to be a major market-moving event, with Deutsche Bank noting that its impact rivals U.S. jobs reports. The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.34%, while Bitcoin tumbled below $90,000 as investors stepped away from one of the most crowded “Trump trades.”
European bonds also reacted, with German debt attractiveness reaching a record low amid expectations for increased borrowing to support defense spending. In Asia, the Hang Seng Tech Index initially plunged as much as 4.4% before erasing most of its losses as over $1 billion flowed into Hong Kong stocks from China.
The latest moves against China come after U.S. officials met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts to discuss limiting Tokyo Electron and ASML engineers from servicing semiconductor equipment in China. This follows a broader directive to use the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) more aggressively to block Chinese acquisitions of U.S. companies and assets.
With geopolitical tensions rising and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, markets are on edge as investors weigh the risks of further volatility.
Key events this week:
US consumer confidence, Tuesday
Fed’s Lorie Logan, Tom Barkin, Michael Barr speak, Tuesday
Apple shareholder meeting, Tuesday
US new home sales, Wednesday
Nvidia earnings, Wednesday
Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Wednesday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
US GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Fed’s Jeff Schmid, Beth Hammack, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
US PCE inflation, income and spending, Friday
Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% as of 6:03 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0472
The British pound was little changed at $1.2626
The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.75 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 6.5% to $87,850.1
Ether fell 9.5% to $2,386.97
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.34%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.48%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,939.29 an ounce
Citadel Is Ready To Enter Crypto
Legendary firm Citadel Securities ($65 billion AUM), led by Ken Griffin, is pivoting to become a liquidity provider for digital assets, betting that President Trump’s pro-crypto stance will spark a market boom. This marks a significant shift from Citadel’s previously cautious approach, as the firm has largely steered clear of crypto exchanges due to U.S. regulatory uncertainty.
Now, Citadel is planning to join market-making teams on major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Crypto.com, initially operating outside the U.S. In 2023, it also launched EDX Markets, a crypto exchange for institutional investors, in partnership with Charles Schwab and Fidelity—another sign of its evolving stance on digital assets.
It’s wild to watch Wall Street turning mega bullish while retail is capitulating. A tale of two very different stories.
The SEC Is Meeting With Crypto Leaders
Under Gary Gensler, this news would have never happened. Now that there is a crypto task force, led by pro-crypto commissioner Hester Pierce, members of the Crypto Council for Innovation, including representatives from Coinbase, OpenSea, Robinhood, and Strategy founder Michael Saylor, are meeting with the SEC’s new task force to urge changes in crypto regulation. About 20 members attended the meeting, with Saylor separately discussing his regulatory priorities. Robinhood also met with the task force earlier in February. Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal officer, emphasized the SEC’s authority to establish a provisional regulatory framework for digital assets, focusing on areas like registration, antifraud protections, and custody.
In other news related to Robinhood, the exchange has officially been cleared of charges following the closure of the investigation conducted by the SEC. The SEC’s Enforcement Division has notified the company that it would not pursue any legal action. Another incredibly bullish development the market is not pricing in right now.
Franklin Templeton Files For A SOL Staking ETF
Franklin Templeton, a $1.5 trillion asset manager, has filed for a spot Solana ETF, aiming to track SOL’s price along with offering staking rewards—providing investors with additional income. The ETF, structured as the Franklin Solana Trust and set to list on the Cboe BZX Exchange, highlights growing institutional interest in Solana beyond just price exposure. Franklin Templeton has already engaged with Solana’s ecosystem, emphasizing its AI sector and launching a tokenized money market fund (FOBXX) on the network. The firm joins players like VanEck, Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Funds in the race to bring Solana ETFs to market.
OKX Settles With The U.S.
OKX has settled with U.S. authorities over operating without a money transmitter license, with its affiliate, Aux Cayes FinTech Co. Ltd., paying over $500 million in penalties. They effectively paid a penalty because a few Americans were able to utilize the exchange using VPNs in the early days - long before this was a major issue. Additionally, OKcoin, OKX’s U.S. division, received a CFTC subpoena related to allegations of fraud and last year’s flash crash of its native token. OKX can now put all of this behind them.
Bitcoin Sell-Off: Why Crypto Markets Are Bleeding | Macro Monday
Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and Larry Lepard as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.