The Wolf Den #1142 - How Much Bitcoin Does The USA Still Own?
Did they sell most of it?
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In This Issue:
How Much Bitcoin Does The USA Still Own?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Stock Futures Up, Yen Gaining
Tom Lee Predicts ETH Could Hit $10k to $15k
Mastercard Makes Quick Work Of GENIUS Act
The UK Plans To Sell Seized BTC
Charles Schwab Is Looking To Compete In Crypto
$100M Bitcoin Fund Is Hunting 1000x Returns With Just 12 Bets | Nico Lechuga
How Much Bitcoin Does The USA Still Own?
Well, this is confusing…
We got the first article saying, “Nope – all the Bitcoin is still there.”
Then the second article says, “Yup – all the Bitcoin is gone.”
So… which is it?
Arkham says the U.S. has its Bitcoin:
Bitcoin Treasuries confirms it too:
From Bitcoin Treasuries:
“The United States has been a significant player in the Bitcoin landscape, primarily through the accumulation of Bitcoin assets via law enforcement seizures. Over the years, the U.S. government has confiscated substantial amounts of Bitcoin from various criminal activities, including the infamous Silk Road marketplace and the Bitfinex hack. These assets have been managed by different federal agencies, with some being auctioned off and others retained.”
Up until now, wallet trackers were widely assumed to be accurate, but now we don’t know.
I wrote an entire newsletter titled, “America’s Strategic Bitcoin Advantag,e” and I shared the following image:
Is this now wrong (to an extent)…?
“It makes sense why the U.S. isn’t in a rush to buy - it already holds a commanding lead, and no major country is seriously threatening to overtake it. The only real incentive to move faster would be locking in lower prices. But let’s be honest – whether the U.S. pursues a budget-neutral strategy or allocates funds directly to Bitcoin, it probably doesn’t matter if BTC is $100,000 or $250,000. Either way, the government has the firepower.”
Our own elected leaders don’t even have a clue:
It’s crazy to think that Crypto Twitter has the most accurate news…
This is the post that shook everything up:
An independent journalist just blew up the entire narrative around how much Bitcoin the U.S. government actually owns.
Here’s what happened:
There’s a critical difference between seized and forfeited Bitcoin. Seized BTC is what law enforcement takes during investigations – but it’s not government property yet. It stays in limbo until a court decides its fate. Forfeited BTC, on the other hand, has cleared that legal hurdle and is officially government-owned – meaning it can be sold or used. While various agencies (like the FBI or DEA) hold seized coins, forfeited assets are generally managed by the U.S. Marshals Service.
Most people don’t know this – and that’s exactly where the confusion begins.
After a Freedom of Information Act request revealed that the U.S. Marshals Service currently holds just under 29,000 BTC, many assumed this meant the government had quietly sold off the rest of its supposed 200,000 BTC stockpile. Even major crypto outlets and Senator Cynthia Lummis made this leap.
But that number – 200,000 BTC – came from sources like Arkham and Bitcoin Treasuries, which don’t separate seized from forfeited coins. They treat all government-controlled BTC as if it’s ready to sell, when most of it legally can’t be touched yet.
That’s why headlines claimed the U.S. dumped 85% of its Bitcoin holdings. In reality, a huge chunk is probably still tied up in legal proceedings. The takeaway? The U.S. might still have far more Bitcoin than the world thinks – it’s just not officially theirs yet.
To be frank, no one truly knows how much Bitcoin the U.S. government controls – or how much of it will never be sold, returned, or even accounted for. President Trump’s executive order clearly states: “The United States will not sell bitcoin deposited into this Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which will be maintained as a store of reserve assets.” But here’s the kicker – the actual amount of Bitcoin in this so-called reserve remains a complete mystery.
And then there’s this bombshell I shared with my YouTube audience:
A few days ago on Spaces, I asked Perianne Boring (who’s deeply tied into the Washington crypto scene) about the executive order. Her answer was jaw-dropping. She said there are rumors that Trump’s order instructed federal agencies to transfer all their Bitcoin holdings to Treasury. But rather than comply, some agencies may have secretly sold their Bitcoin to keep the funds on their own balance sheets. According to her, that might explain why Bitcoin didn’t explode in price earlier this year despite Trump’s bullish stance – because federal agencies were dumping coins into the market in quiet protest of having to give them up.
No official audit has confirmed this – just breadcrumbs, hearsay, and a whole lot of conflicting signals. Even Fort Knox hasn’t been audited in over 70 years. Scott Bessent says it’s checked annually, but good luck finding public records to prove that. If we can’t get a straight answer about gold, what makes anyone think we’re getting one about Bitcoin?
Trump: “We're going to open up the doors. We're going to inspect Fort Knox... I don't want to open it and the cupboards are bare.”
‘Bare cupboards’ is both funny and scary.
Musk:
It’s no wonder nobody takes the U.S. seriously anymore.
Maybe the gold at Fort Knox is audited every year – or maybe it hasn’t been inspected in 50, even 70 years. Who really knows? I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but between the Bitcoin fog and the mystery around the nation’s gold reserves, something doesn’t sit right. It’s entirely possible the government isn’t even hiding anything – they might just be disorganized. Different agencies, no unified reporting, and zero coordination. That dysfunction alone could explain why transparency is nonexistent and confusion reigns.
Here’s what we do know: the Trump administration has publicly committed to acquiring Bitcoin through budget-neutral means. And now that the GENIUS Act has been signed into law, the logical next step would be either a public disclosure of government Bitcoin holdings or new legislation – like a de minimis exemption for small BTC transactions, which would go a long way toward making compliance easier for everyday users.
Fortunately, we may see movement this week. Trump’s executive order, “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology,” includes a key deadline that’s fast approaching.
And if Polymarket is any indication, there’s growing confidence that the U.S. will indeed establish formal reserves this year.
“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No’. Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.”
All in all, the market isn’t exactly panicked by the possibility that the U.S. holds far less Bitcoin than previously believed. But for citizens who care about fiscal responsibility and long-term national strategy, it’s a frustrating and frankly absurd position to be in. If the reserves really are near zero, the government may need to start accumulating at much higher prices – assuming it still intends to build a meaningful position at all.
Then again, the U.S. is so financially powerful that whether it holds zero BTC or 200,000, buying another 800,000 to 1 million coins wouldn’t even register as a line item on the federal balance sheet (assuming it’s not being funded off-book). The real story here isn’t about affordability – it’s about impact. Any sustained Bitcoin accumulation by the U.S. government would put serious upward pressure on price. And if we’re starting from a baseline of zero, that upward pressure could be massive.
That’s all I’ve got on this for now. Before I sign off, I want to leave you with this:
We are one singular tick into alt season, according to the Altcoin Season Index.
(It may be a few more now.)
Largely thanks to Ethereum and a little bit of XRP.
I'm starting to notice some euphoric sentiment building around ETH. That’s not a warning to sell – just an observation. I still think ETH has a long, healthy runway ahead. But don’t be surprised if it needs a breather – maybe a week, maybe a month or more – before the next strong move. With ETH treasury companies only now entering the arena, this thing finally has real legs.
One last thing: if you know someone who could benefit from this newsletter – your uncle, your friends, or that cousin who YOLOs into meme coins – do them a favor and send it their way. Forward the email, tell them to subscribe at the top. Easy.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below resistance after a strong multi-week rally, currently trading around $118,813. Last week’s candle was notably toppy, with a long wick to the upside that hinted at some exhaustion near the highs. Despite that, this week’s price action has remained relatively firm, suggesting the bulls are still in control for now. The key overhead resistance remains at $123,231 – a level that marked the recent high – and BTC has yet to close above it. Support at $112,000, previously a ceiling during the consolidation in May and June, has now flipped to critical support and must hold to maintain the bullish structure.
Volume has declined modestly since the breakout in early July, a typical sign of consolidation rather than distribution. The 50-week moving average continues to rise and now sits well below price around the $89,000 zone, confirming strong momentum. Still, traders should remain cautious here – failure to break above resistance or a close below $112,000 could lead to a deeper pullback toward the mid-$90K range. Until then, this remains a textbook consolidation just beneath resistance in a larger uptrend, with the potential for a breakout continuation if strength returns.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
This is the first time that Ethereum has closed a weekly candle above the 50 MA since 2023. Price also made a higher high in market structure for the first time since 2021, meaning that it has broken bearish market structure.
Ethereum is the focus for now.
Stock Futures Up, Yen Gaining
U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday ahead of key earnings reports from Tesla and Alphabet, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both up 0.3%. The yen jumped 0.7% after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to remain in power despite an election setback, calming fears of political instability and signaling continuity in fiscal and trade policies.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was flat as investors digested mixed corporate news: Ryanair soared 6.4% on strong profits, while Stellantis dropped 1.5% after reporting a €2.3 billion loss, weighed down by restructuring costs, weak sales, and U.S. tariffs.
Treasury yields declined for a fourth straight session, with the 10-year falling to 4.38%. The dollar weakened slightly, and Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $119,125, while Ether gained 1.4%.
Markets remain cautiously optimistic, but concerns linger over U.S.–EU trade negotiations ahead of an August 1 deadline. Barclays noted that despite recent political noise, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to be removed, and rate cuts remain data-dependent.
Key Events This Week:
Tuesday - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday - June Existing Home Sales data
Thursday - July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data, June New Home Sales data
Friday - June Durable Goods Orders data, ~15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 was unchanged as of 9:45 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1649
The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.79 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1770 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3459
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $119,125.17
Ether rose 1.4% to $3,793.86
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.38%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.65%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.4% to $69.02 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,365.20 an ounce
Tom Lee Predicts ETH Could Hit $10k to $15k
For the Tom Lee lovers out there, particularly those holding ETH, I have a collection of some of his most recent quotes. Click the first link above to watch this video, where he breaks down how exactly he gets to $10,000 - $15,0000 EOY prediction.
“Ethereum, you know, is attractive, in my opinion, [because] it is the Layer-1 blockchain where real world assets are becoming tokenized. We’re essentially getting in front of what other businesses will do.”
“There's a bit of an advantage of an Ethereum treasury company if you directly compare it to a Bitcoin treasury. One is that there is a yield you can earn on Ethereum by staking. … The second is that Ethereum's delivered volatility… is actually twice that of Bitcoin. So… it actually makes it cheaper to fund purchases.”
“Ethereum probably could go to $10,000 or something. Circle trades at around 100-times EBITDA … and a lot of Circle operates off Ethereum. So… if these tokenized assets like tokenized dollars traded 100-times EBITDA, what should the blockchain be valued at?”
“If Sean Ferrell’s math is correct, I think something like 10 to 15 thousand makes sense too… it could be end of year, it could be sooner - and again, that wouldn't be the cap.”
Mastercard Makes Quick Work Of GENIUS Act
Mastercard didn’t even wait for Trump’s signature on the GENIUS Act before dropping a surprisingly bullish piece on what’s next for the payments giant. The opening line says it all: “Stablecoins are at a turning point. The passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Congress signals a new era of regulatory clarity and confidence in digital assets.”
The article lays out Mastercard’s vision in the context of global progress – from Europe’s MiCA to regulatory frameworks in Singapore and the UAE – highlighting how these efforts are converging into a more cohesive, trusted environment for digital assets. Mastercard points out that stablecoins are already demonstrating utility in faster, cheaper B2B payments, remittances, and creator payouts, but won’t hit the mainstream without integration into secure, regulated infrastructure.
That’s where Mastercard sees itself leading. It’s spent years quietly building foundational tools like the Multi-Token Network and Crypto Credential, designed to bring stablecoins into compliance-ready, scalable ecosystems. The company is now making its move as the bridge between legacy finance and the digital asset economy – and frankly, Mastercard might be more excited about this shift than anyone in crypto.
“We’ve made meaningful progress. We’re excited to take stablecoins to the next level.”
The UK Plans To Sell Seized BTC
The UK Home Office is reportedly working with law enforcement to explore the sale of a massive crypto stockpile – including at least 61,000 Bitcoin (valued over $7 billion) seized in connection with a Chinese Ponzi scheme. Victims have asked for the Bitcoin to be returned, but the Crown Prosecution Service is pushing for legal authority to keep the assets and redirect proceeds to the UK Treasury.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has taken personal interest in the case, viewing a potential sale as one way to help fill a widening budget gap, while also reinforcing her support for stronger crypto regulation. The government has even offered a £41 million ($53.7M) contract to manage seized crypto, but so far, no qualified bids have emerged.
Legal complexities – including competing claims, cross-border jurisdiction issues, and lengthy forfeiture proceedings – could delay any sale for years. In most cases, crypto asset sales take one to four years to finalize. This saga underscores just how messy these situations can get: tangled legal processes, political motives, inter-agency tension, and the rights of victims all colliding in slow motion.
Honestly, just HODLing might be the cleanest solution.
Charles Schwab Is Looking To Compete In Crypto
Charles Schwab is preparing to offer spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum, responding to growing client demand to manage digital assets alongside traditional investments. I can imagine this is a long-awaited decision by its customers who are too scared to touch something like Coinbase or Binance. CEO Rick Wurster highlights that clients prefer the security and trust of Schwab over digital-native platforms like Coinbase. More than likely, Schwab will find a lot of success with this offering.
$100M Bitcoin Fund Is Hunting 1000x Returns With Just 12 Bets | Nico Lechuga
I sat down with Nico Lechuga from Ego Death Capital on The Wolf Of All Streets to learn how his dream‑team fund is betting big on companies that actually earn and spend Bitcoin. Nico walks me through the wins, misses, and tough questions around Bitcoin payments, stablecoins, and those hyped “treasury” stocks – all in plain English. By the end, you’ll see why he thinks the next wave of Bitcoin businesses could outgrow simply stacking sats.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.