The Wolf Den #1142 - Did Memes Ruin Everything?
This is why we can't have nice things.
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In This Issue:
Did Memes Ruin Everything?
Aptos Weekly Review
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
The SEC Vs Coinbase Is OVER!
Tether Is On A Mission
FTX Repayments Have Begun
Bitwise Donates ETF Proceeds To Support Bitcoin Developers
The XRP ETF Is Inching Closer To The Finish Line
Bitcoin Gamification! Higher for Longer!
Did Memes Ruin Everything?
January 17, 2025, changed everything. President-elect Donald Trump posted the following on X and Truth Social, sending shockwaves through the entire crypto world.
In just a few days, Solana surged from $180 on January 13 to an all-time high of over $290 by January 19, 2025. That weekend alone saw more than $50 billion in trading volume as traders scrambled to gain SOL exposure—both to buy memes and to hold long-term, believing Trump’s memecoin was just the beginning of something bigger.
Trump Coin reached a peak of $78 on some platforms, giving it a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $78 billion. However, with only 20% of the total supply in circulation, the actual market cap stood at $3.18 billion. The coin now trades at $15.90—down approximately 79.5% from its highs.
Looking back, this was actually the beginning of the end.
From this point, degeneracy spiraled entirely out of control. A Detroit pastor, fresh off delivering a prayer at Trump’s inauguration, launched a memecoin. Then Melania Coin happened, obliterating whatever credibility Trump Coin had left. That opened the floodgates to even more disastrous memes—Jailstool Coin (a play on Barstool), MLG Coin (for the gamers), CAR (the Central African Republic government’s memecoin), and then LIBRA, the mother of all scams from Argentina.
I’m sure I’m forgetting your favorite meme from last week, but you get the point.
Memes have strayed far from what they used to be. A true memecoin, like DOGE, is fun, decentralized, and community-driven. There’s no leadership or insiders controlling the supply—just a collective effort for the sake of humor and participation. A meme should be a celebration of meme culture, not a corporate or political cash grab.
Now we’re seeing the opposite. These new “meme tokens” are purely extractive, fueled by greed and political agendas, preying on fans, followers, and unsuspecting traders. There’s no real community involvement—just insiders profiting off hype. The supply is tightly controlled, and the fun, decentralized spirit is completely gone.
Over the past month, I’ve grown increasingly bearish on the evolution of these so-called "memes"—tokens that pretend to be memecoins but are anything but. That said, I don’t necessarily feel the same about the OGs like DOGE, SHIBA, or PEPE. These tokens have survived bear markets and continue to serve as fun, speculative assets that bring newcomers into the space. There’s a difference between a meme and a marketing scheme—unfortunately, we’re seeing more of the latter.
That said, it’s become crystal clear that the evolution of memes isn’t great for Solana in the short term. The main reason Solana has “won” this cycle is because it captured a hot ball of retail money and fueled the memecoin frenzy. Insiders walked away with piles of cash, and Solana thrived as more people piled into the casino, paying a rake in fees to play the game. Platforms like Pump.fun, Raydium, and a wave of copycats have been the real killer use case for SOL.
Now that memecoins are no longer an exciting narrative but are increasingly viewed as predatory, the mood has completely shifted. Sentiment toward Solana is in shambles, arguably as bad—if not worse—than the sentiment around Ethereum when Solana was outperforming it in previous cycles. The hype machine has stalled, and now Solana is facing the backlash.
For the record, I’m not endorsing any of these statements or individuals. My opinions are what I share on X and here. I’m simply sharing these posts to highlight the current sentiment.
I took a trip over to Dune Analytics, and it’s not looking good for Pump.fun, which aligns with what we’re seeing on X. All of these charts are either on the verge of falling off a cliff or are already in free fall. This isn’t what you want to see if you’re a meme trader or a Solana holder banking on meme interest to keep prices moving higher.
You can see in the next two charts that activity has sharply declined over the past 48 hours.
This one includes Pump.fun and non-Pump.fun volume.
When Trump Coin launched, I tried to stay as neutral as possible, even though every instinct told me this was going to end badly. I suggested there might be an altruistic angle—like funding disaster relief, supporting charitable causes, or even buying Bitcoin. I’m not saying none of that will happen—we’re only a month in—but so far, it’s been nothing but radio silence with no meaningful developments to report.
It turns out, it only took 30 days for the whole thing to come crashing down.
Looking ahead, speculation isn’t going anywhere—it’s hardwired into human nature. To assume it won’t return is to misunderstand both markets and people. That said, the fallout from LIBRA will likely serve as a reset, forcing a more cautious approach to so-called “memes.” The next wave of speculation is inevitable, but the reckless free-for-all we just witnessed may not be so easily repeated in the same form.
This isn’t the end of the bull market. If anything, it levels the playing field between Solana and Ethereum and shifts attention back to utility—where it belongs for both chains. It’s also a harsh reminder that Bitcoin should remain the primary focus, and if capital starts flowing further down the risk curve, there better be a real, legitimate reason for it.
Also, I didn’t think this needed to be said, but let’s be clear—Libra is nowhere near the same as FTX. Not even close.
The past month has been sickening, but every major downfall, scam, or scheme has ultimately made the space stronger. FTX’s collapse forced exchanges to prioritize transparency and reserves. China’s mining ban decentralized Bitcoin’s hash power worldwide. The ICO boom was chaotic, but it laid the groundwork for DeFi and real use cases. Every boom and bust, big or small, has helped crypto rebuild just a little stronger.
If you care about this space, stay optimistic. We can learn from the meme mania to avoid repeating the same mistakes—it’s the only way forward.
Aptos Weekly Review
For those that don’t know, Aptos—one of the most exciting layer 1 blockchain competing with Solana and Ethereum—is now an official sponsor of this newsletter! Over the past few months, I’ve had the chance to get to know the Aptos team, create content with them, and watch this project accomplish incredible things.
Each week, I’ll provide an Aptos review, showcasing all the exciting announcements and milestones the network is achieving. This week let’s start with this announcement that PACT Protocol has launched on the Aptos Network, introducing a fully on-chain lending and securitization framework for licensed lenders in emerging markets. This integration brings more than $1 billion in on-chain assets to Aptos after nine months of development and partnership with the Aptos Foundation.
PACT Protocol utilizes Aptos' low-cost infrastructure to connect billions of underserved borrowers with global capital markets, enabling real DeFi impact and institutional partnerships without barriers. This launch follows nine months of dedicated incubation and collaboration with Pact Labs, with the Aptos Foundation supporting real-world innovation across the ecosystem.
According to Joshua March, the President of Pact Labs, “PACT’s transition to Aptos unlocks greater efficiency, broader institutional adoption, and real-world financial impact. With Aptos, we’re driving new levels of scalability, security, and speed, fundamentally transforming how credit markets operate on-chain…Eventually we are going after the whole $1.7T private credit market.”
In other equally important news, earlier this week, Aptos Labs joined members of the Blockchain Association in signing a letter urging Congress to overturn the DeFi broker rule, which poses a threat to the future of DeFi in the U.S. They are committed to working with the Blockchain Association and lawmakers to help shape the future of Web3.
Aptos joined over 75 Blockchain Association member companies in signing this letter backing Senator Ted Cruz’s bill to permanently repeal this harmful rule. Aptos knows this is a commonsense step that deserves broad support, and we should urge our allies in Congress to take action.
Before wrapping up, I want to briefly share the Aptos vision.
“The Aptos vision is to deliver a blockchain that can bring mainstream adoption to web3 and empower an ecosystem of decentralized applications to solve real-world user problems. Our mission is to advance the state-of-the-art in blockchain reliability, safety, and performance by providing a flexible and modular blockchain architecture. This architecture should support frequent upgrades, fast adoption of the latest technology advancements, and first-class support for new and emerging use cases.”
That is all for this week, make sure to show Aptos some love—they’re a huge reason this newsletter remains free!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin's daily chart is showing signs of strength as price pushes toward the key resistance zone at 99,860, now testing both horizontal resistance and the 50-day moving average. A decisive close above this level would be a bullish signal, potentially opening the door for a move toward the next major resistance at 106,099. However, rejection at this level could lead to another period of consolidation or even a retest of recent lows. Volume has picked up slightly, indicating growing interest, but a breakout would require stronger confirmation. The market remains in a pivotal zone, where bulls need to reclaim key levels to shift momentum in their favor.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
I'm seeing a number of potential double bottoms forming across the board on altcoins, with some also showing bullish divergence alongside an oversold RSI. This setup suggests altcoins could perform well in the near term, especially with the Coinbase news breaking.
That said, remember—a double bottom is only confirmed once the high point (neckline) between the two lows is broken. Right now, most of these are just setups, not confirmed patterns. If that neckline breaks, we could see some explosive moves.
Here are a few examples.
SUI/USDT
NEAR/USDT
SEI/USDT
Already breaking out…
Legacy Markets
U.S. stock futures edged higher, with the Nasdaq 100 rising 0.3% after Alibaba’s strong earnings fueled optimism in the AI and tech sectors. However, gains were tempered as Block Inc., Akamai Technologies, and Rivian fell in premarket trading following weak guidance. S&P 500 futures remained flat.
While U.S. equities have underperformed global markets in 2025, Bank of America strategists prefer international stocks, particularly in Germany, China, Japan, and South Korea, due to improving business activity. JPMorgan noted that U.S. corporate profit outlooks for 2025 remain subdued.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 climbed 0.6%, heading for its ninth straight weekly gain as resilient profits and optimism over Ukraine peace talks lifted sentiment. European stocks saw $4 billion in inflows this week, the highest since early 2022.
Chinese tech stocks surged, with Alibaba jumping 14% after reporting strong cloud revenue growth, pushing the sector to its highest levels since 2022.
The euro weakened 0.3% after European PMI data showed sluggish business activity, reinforcing fears of stagnation. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened ahead of U.S. PMI data, expected to show a slight decline.
Gold continued its upward trend, heading for its eighth consecutive weekly gain as investors sought safe-haven assets amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 7:42 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0466
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2643
The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 150.42 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $98,825.78
Ether rose 2.7% to $2,801.34
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.49%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.49%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.60%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $71.81 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,934.65 an ounce
The SEC Vs Coinbase Is OVER!
In a significant policy shift, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has agreed to drop its lawsuit against Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange. This decision, pending a commission vote next week, marks a departure from the SEC's previous approach under former Chair Gary Gensler, who had intensified scrutiny of the crypto industry. The lawsuit, initiated in 2023, accused Coinbase of operating as an unregistered securities exchange. The move to dismiss the case reflects the evolving regulatory landscape under President Trump's administration, which has shown increased support for the crypto sector. Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, expressed optimism about the resolution and the potential for a more collaborative relationship with regulators moving forward.
This is HUGE!
Trump Is Still Committed To Crypto
“Bitcoin has set multiple all-time record highs because everyone knows that I am committed to making America the crypto capital. We want to stay at the forefront of everything, and one of them is crypto. Miami seems to be the center of the action, come to think of it, and maybe it will stay there.”
Tether Is On A Mission
While the world is watching nations adopt Bitcoin, Tether is charting its own course—driving economic growth and positioning countries at the forefront of the digital revolution through blockchain. In that spirit, Tether has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the government of Guinea to explore blockchain and peer-to-peer technologies.
This strategic partnership centers on education, innovation, and sustainability, with a focus on developing blockchain expertise in collaboration with Guinea’s City of Science and Innovation. Tether will also back the country’s “Innovation City” project, reinforcing its ambitions to lead Africa’s digital transformation. The initiative builds on Tether’s track record of advancing blockchain adoption worldwide, following similar efforts in Switzerland, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and Ras Al Khaimah.
In other Tether news, one of Tether’s original co-founders, Reeve Collins—along with Brock Pierce and Craig Sellars—is backing a new stablecoin project, USP, aimed at competing with Tether. The project will launch on Pi Protocol, a blockchain set to debut on Ethereum and Solana later this year. The key innovation behind USP is its model, which allows industry participants marketing the stablecoin to claim the lion’s share of the profits. This raises questions about how the reserves will be structured and maintained.
FTX Repayments Have Begun
Approximately 162,000 accounts with claims under $50,000 have either been reimbursed or are in the process of receiving repayment from FTX, totaling an estimated $1.2 billion in the first wave of distributions. For creditors with claims exceeding $50,000, the next wave of repayments is set to begin on April 11.
In total, FTX plans to return $16 billion to creditors—a significant sum, but nowhere near enough to compensate for the lost gains. As much as I’d like to believe these repayments could spark a market turnaround, I’m not convinced. Sentiment in altcoins is dismal, and Bitcoin’s larger narratives will likely overshadow anything FTX does.
Bitwise Donates ETF Proceeds To Support Bitcoin Developers
Bitwise is following through on its pledge to allocate a portion of its ETF proceeds to support Bitcoin open-source developers. Based on this announcement, its total gross profits for 2024 can be estimated at $1.5 million. So far, Bitwise has accumulated $2.28 billion in net inflows for its BITB spot Bitcoin ETF.
“When the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF ($BITB) launched, we committed to donating 10% of its gross profits each year. We’re delighted to make good on that promise with this first annual donation.
Three fantastic non-profit organizations with established track records—@BitcoinBrink, @OpenSats, and @HRF—will allocate the funds. We’re grateful for the work they do.
As BITB grows, so too will our contribution. Bitcoin is changing the world, and Bitwise will always strive to do our part to be a good steward of this incredible ecosystem alongside you.”
In other Bitwise news, the asset manager will also donate 10% of the profits from its Bitwise Ethereum ETF to two organizations: Protocol Guild, which supports core contributors to Ethereum’s protocol research and development, and the PBS Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to advancing open-source Ethereum infrastructure.
The XRP ETF Is Inching Closer To The Finish Line
The SEC has acknowledged Cboe BZX Exchange’s request to list the 21Shares XRP ETF, marking another step in the approval process for a spot XRP ETF in the U.S. While this is not an approval, it signals progress for exchanges looking to offer XRP-based investment products.
With this acknowledgment, the filing will be published in the Federal Register, opening a 21-day comment period before the SEC decides whether to approve, reject, or extend its review. This follows similar filings for XRP ETFs from Grayscale and Bitwise, while applications from Canary Capital and WisdomTree remain unacknowledged.
If you remember, the Bloomberg Bros put the odds of an XRP ETF approval this year at 65% last week. I believe XRP—along with SOL, LTC, HBAR, DOGE, and a few others—will all get ETFs this year. I’m pretty confident in that.
In other ETF news, there is this:
Allowing staking on ETH ETFs is closer than the market anticipates.
Bitcoin Gamification! Higher for Longer!
Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, joins Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway from Arch Public to discuss the latest in crypto.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.