The Wolf Den #1139 - Godzilla Vs. King Kong, Pt. 2
Bitcoin Vs. Nvidia
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In This Issue:
Godzilla Vs. King Kong, Pt. 2
Important Announcement!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Tariff Tensions And Fed Uncertainty Weigh On Markets
Crypto Week Drama Is In Full Swing
The Polymarket Investigation Has Ended
GameStop Is Not The Next Strategy
Bitcoin Rally Cools Down, Will 'Crypto Week' Trigger the Next Big Surge?
Godzilla Vs. King Kong, Pt. 2
The first hit is magic.
The sequel? Usually a regret. By part three, you're watching a train wreck with a bigger budget.
Remember when The Matrix dropped in 1999? Instant classic. The red pill/blue pill metaphor seeped so deep into culture that Bitcoin maximalists now talk about taking the ‘orange pill.’
Then there’s Donnie Darko – one of the greatest cult films of all time, released just two years later. But here’s a fun – and mildly tragic – fact: it has a sequel. It’s so bad, most people don’t even know it exists. And those who do pretend they don’t.
Godzilla vs. Kong somehow broke the sequel curse. The 1962 original was iconic – and the 2021 reboot smashed pandemic-era box office records and inspired me to write an intro comparing Bitcoin and Nvidia titled “Godzilla vs. King Kong.”
Today, I’m writing the sequel to that sequel – and this time, I think it might actually be better.
Because if you haven’t been watching, both of these monster assets are back – louder, larger, and with more destruction in their wake than ever before.
Let’s size them up.
Size-wise, Nvidia is still the heavyweight – with a market cap of $4.1 trillion, it’s about 1.8 times larger than Bitcoin’s $2.3 trillion.
Back when I wrote the original “Godzilla vs. King Kong” piece in May 2024, Nvidia was trading at a high of $106.47. Today, it’s sitting at $171 – a 60.6% gain. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has jumped from $69,220 to around $117,000 – roughly a 69% increase. (And that’s the conservative take – it briefly touched $123,000.)
Think about that for a second: Nvidia rose 4.5% just yesterday and is up nearly 19% this month – and we’re talking about the world’s largest publicly traded company outside of gold. If Bitcoin’s market cap were $4.1 trillion, that would place its price at approximately $209,000. A 4% move at that level would mean an $8,360 daily candle. A 19% monthly gain? Nearly $39,710. That kind of action would have the entire financial world staring.
Nvidia’s relentless climb raises a fascinating question – what happens when Bitcoin gets to $200K, $300K, or higher? Just because Bitcoin becomes a multi-trillion dollar asset doesn’t mean it loses its ability to explode 5% or 10% in a single day.
So who’s the real king of the monsters? Sure, Bitcoin outpaced Nvidia in this recent stretch – but that’s just one frame in a much larger reel. Let’s zoom out and compare how these two titans have performed across different timeframes.
Past 6 months
Bitcoin - 20.67% ❌
Nvidia - 25.13% ✅
YTD
Bitcoin - 25.67% ✅
Nvidia - 23.26% ❌
1 Year
Bitcoin - 87.6% ✅
Nvidia - 32.73% ❌
3 Years
Bitcoin - 454.64% ❌
Nvidia - 980.3% ✅
5 Years
Bitcoin - 1,179.82% ❌
Nvidia - 1,571.37% ✅
10 Years
Bitcoin - 41,508% ✅
Nvidia - 34,067% ❌
Out of the six matchups, it’s a dead heat – Bitcoin wins three, Nvidia wins three. And that’s kind of insane when you think about it. For half the last decade, you would’ve been better off just buying a chipmaker than the world’s greatest-performing asset class.
Here’s the current chart:
When I look at this chart now, I see a clear winner in the making.
Funny how quickly things can change – just a year ago, this chart told a completely different story. Nvidia was crushing Bitcoin, pulling ahead month after month. (Below is a screenshot from the newsletter back then.)
I can imagine some of you are scratching your heads – how is Bitcoin dominating today’s chart when Nvidia was clearly in the lead last year? Let me explain.
Performance charts reflect relative gains, not fixed positions. When one asset makes a major move late in the game – like Bitcoin has – the chart reshapes itself. Nvidia had a commanding lead for most of the race. But Bitcoin’s recent surge recalibrates the visual, compressing Nvidia’s earlier gains and stretching Bitcoin’s line upward. It’s not a glitch – it’s just how relative performance charts work. A strong late-stage run can rewrite the entire narrative.
And that narrative might keep shifting. Nvidia has a 16-year head start on Bitcoin – 32 years vs. 16. That time gave it the runway to mature into the world’s largest public company. But if Bitcoin is truly on a path to $1 million, we may reach a point where Nvidia’s green line never climbs above Bitcoin’s orange line again – not for any meaningful stretch of time.
Here’s the prediction I made in that newsletter over a year ago – and slowly but surely, it’s playing out:
Over a year has passed and I proudly stand by this prediction 100%. Nvidia will likely keep performing well – but I expect Bitcoin to outpace it more and more as time goes on.
Interestingly, I wrapped up that original newsletter by announcing the official approval of the Ethereum ETF. Fast‑forward to today, and here we are:
Also, since we are on the topic of Bitcoin news, I figured I’d share this here:
Important Announcement!
Check this out:
I’m officially advising a company on their Bitcoin position. This isn’t financial engineering – it’s a company using real revenue to buy Bitcoin. There’s a big difference, and I’m going to talk more about it tomorrow. I can’t wait.
One last thing – according to the U.S. Director of Federal Housing, Powell is still expected to resign. He must know something we don’t. While he could end up being wrong, it’s a bold claim – and quite the story.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The Bitcoin daily chart paints a nuanced picture following Tuesday’s pullback – which came on the highest volume day since the $74K bottom in mid‑April, specifically on Coinbase. But notably, that surge in volume was primarily driven by selling, not buying – a key detail that shifts the tone of the candle.
Despite the aggressive downward move, price found support around $116,000 and recovered into the close, finishing the day above $117,000. However, the heavy sell volume behind that move suggests it wasn’t just a casual dip – it was real distribution.
That said, bulls showed resilience on Wednesday, pushing price back toward $119,000 and defending the key $116,000–$118,000 zone. If Bitcoin can maintain this level and digest the selloff without rolling over, it may absorb the supply and build a base for continuation.
But traders should stay cautious – high‑volume sell days near local highs can sometimes mark short‑term tops or signal a shift in momentum. The $112,000 breakout zone remains the critical downside level to watch if the current range fails.
Altcoin Charts
All eyes on Ethereum… this will likely dictate what altcoins do writ large.
ETH/USD
ETH/BTC
Tariff Tensions And Fed Uncertainty Weigh On Markets
Markets wavered as a wave of tariff threats and waning optimism for rate cuts unsettled investors. The S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1% while Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped 0.2%, pressured by a sharp decline in tech stocks. ASML trimmed its 2025 growth forecast, and Renault tanked 16% after slashing its profit outlook and replacing its CEO. On the U.S. side, Donald Trump hinted at new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by August 1, and Kevin Hassett emerged as the front-runner to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors now expect fewer rate cuts this year, with bets for two cuts dropping to their lowest in a month.
Traders are also bracing for signs of tariff-induced inflation in upcoming producer price data, as analysts warn of escalating price pressures as pre-tariff inventory is depleted. In the UK, inflation unexpectedly hit a 2024 high, driven by food prices, casting doubt on future Bank of England easing. Meanwhile, all eyes are on another round of bank earnings, with results from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley on deck.
Notable corporate news included Brighthouse Financial rising on reports of a potential buyout, Barclays getting fined over financial crime risk failures, and Nvidia expecting new export licenses for AI chips to China. Huawei also reclaimed the top spot in China’s smartphone market, marking its return to dominance after more than four years.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:21 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.1611
The British pound was little changed at $1.3397
The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 148.70 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $119,272.95
Ether rose 3.8% to $3,156.63
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.47%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $66.14 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,337.35 an ounce
Crypto Week Drama Is In Full Swing
It’s “Crypto Week” in Congress, and things were looking good at first as all three crypto-related bills cleared a key preliminary vote - meaning they were headed for full consideration by the House. Unfortunately, this was derailed yesterday afternoon because of this:
A lot is riding on these three bills – and if the votes don’t go our way, I can see this reversing the market in haste. But so far, crypto is holding its own. At least this was effectively a delay, rather than a blanket ‘no.’
I can’t imagine Trump is happy right now. This is what he said before all the drama.
A large part of the issue is precisely because of CBDCs:
All in all, nothing here is bad, per se – it’s just not ideal. Any chance of a CBDC coming back into question should be blocked. I think Congress is going to find a way to get this done – it’s just going to be a shit show. To nobody’s surprise, our elected officials failed us yesterday.
(Also, I saw comments that GENIUS doesn’t allow for a CBDC, so I don’t know what exactly to believe.)
Today is a new day though, and Trump has already stated that he had a meeting with the 12 naysayers and has convinced 11 of them to vote for the bills.
The Polymarket Investigation Has Ended
U.S. authorities have reportedly closed their investigations into Polymarket, after looking into whether it allowed U.S. users to place bets - especially around the 2024 elections. The probe intensified after the election season, and in late 2024, the FBI even raided the home of CEO Shayne Coplan. This, of course, created outrage in the crypto community. Polymarket had previously settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million in 2022. Neither the company nor Coplan has publicly commented on the latest developments.
One development I’d love to see this administration pull off is opening the door for U.S. access to Polymarket - followed, maybe, by the company going public. I know that’s a big ask, but Polymarket has consistently played by the rules and represents a legitimate, valuable use case for the technology this space is built on. For crypto alone, there are over 100 available markets on a wide range of events outside of just price. Also, imagine how much success Polymarket could have seen during election season if the platform had been available in the U.S.
GameStop Is Not The Next Strategy
GameStop’s CEO, Ryan Cohen, did a CNBC interview where he was asked about the company’s future plans, essentially confirming the plan isn’t just to be the next Strategy. I do think more Bitcoin purchases are definitely in the cards based on the interview, but raising debt to acquire Bitcoin at all costs isn’t where this company seems to be headed.
“We made an investment of just over $500 million in Bitcoin, and I look at it as a hedge against inflation and global money printing. We’ll see what happens… We will deploy that capital responsibly as I would my own capital, and only look for opportunities where the downside is limited and there’s a lot of upside. We’ll be opportunistic… There’s an opportunity to buy trading cards, and do so using cryptocurrency. We’ll see how much there is on the actual demand side for that kind of product…We’re going to look at all cryptocurrencies.”
Bitcoin Rally Cools Down, Will 'Crypto Week' Trigger the Next Big Surge?
Join us live as Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway from Arch Public, alongside Bill Barhydt from Abra, unpack Bitcoin's pullback from record highs amid cooling U.S. inflation data. With "Crypto Week" underway, we'll explore how landmark digital asset legislation could reshape the industry. Don’t miss insights into why major firms like Coinbase and Strategy are betting big on crypto’s mainstream moment.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.