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In This Issue:
The Whales Are Lying To You
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Florida Is On The Bitcoin Map
World Liberty Financial Is Creating A Strategic Reserve
Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev Has Been Released
AI Agents Will Disrupt Crypto & Finance, Here Is How | Rune Christensen
The Whales Are Lying To You
Conventional wisdom often portrays sell walls as ominous signs, casting a shadow of bearishness over the market, while buy walls signal bullish intent, suggesting eager accumulation. But this interpretation is like mistaking the stage lights for the performance itself. It’s a narrative spun by whales who manipulate these walls to use you as pawns in their game.
With every major Bitcoin market move, discussion surges around the significance of massive buy and sell walls on exchanges. For those unfamiliar with the concept, think of these walls as towering orders placed within the order book—one of the clearest visual representations of market sentiment.
Buy and sell walls may seem random, but they often cluster around key psychological levels like 90K, 100K, or 110K. At these milestones, traders flood the order book with bids and asks, shaping market behavior. This chaos fuels misconceptions that drive both FUD and narratives.
Surprisingly, a sell wall doesn’t always mean the price is about to plunge. More often than not, it serves as a strategic pause—a checkpoint that allows savvy investors to step in and take a favorable position. A whale looking to sell would never place a massive sell order—it goes against their own best interest.
Similarly, a buy wall isn’t always a sign of strength; it often acts as a buffer to stall a decline, giving smart sellers the opportunity to offload assets at their preferred price. And just like with sell walls, a whale looking to buy would never stack a giant order in one go.
Instead, whales execute large trades by placing hundreds or even thousands of small orders over time, ensuring the most cost-efficient execution. Don't let narratives—or the order book—fool you into thinking otherwise.
In traditional markets, placing orders with no intent to execute, purely to manipulate prices, is called "spoofing" and is strictly illegal. But in the relatively unregulated world of crypto, these tactics often fly under the radar. That doesn’t mean you should try it—eventually, it catches up to you.
The true skill in trading lies in execution. Michael Saylor has been criticized for some “poorly timed” trades, but what he does well is accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin without disrupting the market. If he can execute massive buys without triggering chaos, then it’s clear that whales can do the same. When the market sees major order book imbalances, it’s usually either deliberate manipulation or forced liquidations.
Take a look at what Michael Saylor said in late 2020 about how he executed his Bitcoin purchases.
“Last week I bought $1,000 worth of Bitcoin every second in the evenings and on the weekends...I bought $2,000 worth of Bitcoin during the day...I was not a green candle. The green candles were the other guys...I was just the guy lurking there buying $1k-2k per second.”
Now imagine if Saylor had unleashed his entire order all at once—the market would have gone absolutely wild. And given that his buying strategy was discussed nearly four years ago, it’s safe to assume that when he accumulates now, he’s likely moving more than $1,000 per second.
The lesson here is clear: real market movers—the ones shaping trends rather than reacting to them—operate with precision. They break their orders into smaller, controlled executions to avoid disrupting the market’s delicate balance. True players don’t build walls; they quietly break through them.
For smaller traders, staring at the order book is like trying to solve an impossibly complex puzzle. More often than not, it leads to confusion rather than clarity—especially without the expertise, insider insight, or high-level tools required to decipher it. That’s why I focus on what decision-makers are saying, dissecting their moves to extract alpha and stay ahead of the trends.
The real art of trading goes far beyond the order book. It’s a blend of technical analysis, market cycle awareness, fundamental understanding, and emotional discipline. So next time there’s a massive market move, don’t convince yourself the answer was sitting in plain sight in the order book. I promise you—nobody except the whale making the trade saw it coming.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The Bitcoin daily chart shows a modest recovery after a period of downward pressure. Price is currently still below the $99,860 resistance level and the 50-day moving average, which suggests that bearish momentum still dominates. The last 4 candles all opened and closed at almost the exact same price, showing equilibrium between bulls and bears and indecisiveness as to the next move.
A reclaim of the $99,860 level, accompanied by higher volume, would be a positive sign for bulls and could open the path toward $106,099. On the downside, the key support zone near $89,000-$90,000 still looms. The overall structure indicates a range-bound environment with no clear breakout direction at this time.
Legacy Markets
The dollar surged, and gold hit a record high as President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, adding to global trade tensions. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a one-week high, while the yen, Canadian dollar, and euro weakened. Demand for haven assets rose, boosting bullion prices.
US stock futures rebounded following last week’s selloff, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining at least 0.4%. The tariff news lifted American metal stocks, with US Steel soaring 15% in premarket trading and Alcoa rising 5%. McDonald’s also advanced after reporting strong fourth-quarter sales. In Europe, BP shares surged after reports that activist investor Elliott Investment Management had taken a stake in the oil giant.
The tariff announcement comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and key US inflation data this week. Investors are closely watching Powell’s stance on monetary policy, as recent jobs data showed a cooling but still solid labor market. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain cautious, with pricing suggesting only one cut in 2025.
Trump also claimed that Elon Musk’s government efficiency team had uncovered irregularities in Treasury Department data, though no details were provided. Meanwhile, in commodities, European natural gas prices hit a two-year high due to colder weather depleting storage reserves. Aluminum and copper futures remained steady as traders awaited further clarity on how the tariffs would be implemented. With trade risks escalating, markets are bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.
Some Key Events This Week:
China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods are scheduled to take effect, Monday
ECB President Christine Lagarde testifies to European Parliament, Monday
Norway GDP, Tuesday
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Tuesday
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gives semiannual monetary policy testimony to Senate Banking Committee, Tuesday
Brazil CPI, Tuesday
India CPI, industrial production, Wednesday
US CPI, Wednesday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Services panel, Wednesday
UK industrial production, GDP, Thursday
Germany CPI, Thursday
Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache gives annual address, Thursday
Eurozone GDP, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as of 7:33 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro was little changed at $1.0318
The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2388
The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 152.16 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $97,453.48
Ether rose 3.7% to $2,647.6
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.49%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.37%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.47%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $71.92 a barrel
Spot gold rose 1.5% to $2,905.11 an ounce
Florida Is On The Bitcoin Map
At this pace, we’re likely about a week away from half the map turning orange. Of course, introducing a bill is far from getting it passed. Two states have already stumbled early in the process—North Dakota’s HB1184 failed a House vote, and Wyoming’s HB201 died in committee. That doesn’t mean these bills can’t be reworked and reintroduced to overcome their sticking points. Meanwhile, Utah is making progress, becoming the first state to pass a House vote and advance to the Senate. With my home state now joining the map, I’ve outlined the details of its bill below as an example of what these proposals entail.
The overview:
“Investments of Public Funds in Bitcoin; Authorizing the Chief Financial Officer to make investments in Bitcoin and other digital assets for a certain purpose; requiring the Chief Financial Officer to maintain flexibility in certain investment decisions; authorizing the Chief Financial Officer to invest money in Bitcoin from certain public funds; authorizing the Trustees of the State Board of Administration to invest and reinvest available funds of the System Trust Fund in Bitcoin; providing that investments of public funds in Bitcoin are exempt from certain security requirements, etc.”
“The Chief Financial Officer: May include Bitcoin and other digital assets to serve as stores of value and provide a hedge against inflation, thereby protecting the purchasing power of state funds.”
“The amount of public funds that the Chief Financial Officer may invest in Bitcoin may not exceed 10 percent of the total funds in any account.”
World Liberty Financial Is Creating A Strategic Reserve
Amid all the chatter around a “SBR” or “Digital Asset Stockpile,” Trump’s World Liberty Financial has stated it plans to create its own strategic reserve with the tokens it buys. As for the details of the reserve—like its intended size or use case—those remain undisclosed, but at least we know something now. The portfolio currently holds $342 million, with ETH making up 60% and WBTC at 18%. Interestingly, WLF doesn’t hold Solana, which may be because the team holds a lot from its memecoin launch on another wallet or platform.
Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev Has Been Released
A couple of weeks ago, a U.S. court overturned the OFAC sanctions on the Tornado Cash cryptocurrency mixing protocol, which had originally accused the platform of facilitating over $455 million in money laundering tied to the North Korean Lazarus Group. This ruling follows a significant legal development involving Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev, who was convicted in the Netherlands for laundering $1.2 billion through the platform and sentenced to over five years in prison. On February 6, a Dutch court suspended Pertsev’s pretrial detention, which had been in place since August 2022. It’s refreshing to finally see good actors not treated equally to bad actors.
AI Agents Will Disrupt Crypto & Finance, Here Is How | Rune Christensen
Join me on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast for an insightful discussion with Rune Christensen, co-founder of MakerDAO and CEO of Sky Protocol. In this episode, we dive into the evolution of stablecoins, the transformative power of AI in DeFi, and how these innovations could shape the future of finance. Learn how decentralized governance, AI advancements, and scalable solutions are pushing DeFi closer to mainstream adoption.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.