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In This Issue:
$100K—>$70K —> $250K
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
The Bitcoin Map Is Lighting Up
Coinbase Earnings Are In 10 Days!
Tether Releases Its Q4 Attestation Report
Tokenized Gold On Ethereum
Crypto Is About To Go Parabolic - Here’s Why | Avery Ching, Aptos Labs
$100K—>$70K —> $250K
Arthur Hayes needs no introduction.
If you're not familiar with him, cancel your plans after this and start researching. He’s one of the sharpest minds in the space, and when his takes go against the consensus, they’re always worth listening to.
Arthur’s depth and detail make it nearly impossible to quote everything he says. On our podcast a few days ago, he even joked about his recent “5,000-page essay” for those looking for more insight. I summarized it in the newsletter Not Everyone Is Bullish a few days ago, and while I hadn’t planned to revisit his ideas so soon, the market’s growing bearish sentiment makes them worth a second look.
I wasted no time in our interview—my first order of business was confirming Arthur’s top price prediction, which remains $250K, and clarifying his short-term downside target, which is somewhere in the $70Ks. He’s holding firm on both. To kick things off, I asked why he believes we’re likely headed down before the real cycle acceleration begins.
This is paraphrased from a long response:
Arthur’s argument suggests that post-Trump’s election, Bitcoin has traded ahead of global liquidity fundamentals. Trump’s platform—centered around printing money and boosting American industries—led to expectations that other countries would follow suit, further increasing global liquidity. However, tensions between Trump and Powell, who is focused on fighting inflation, complicate matters. The U.S. also faces a challenging treasury maturity profile, with $6 trillion of short-term debt needing to be rolled over at higher rates. Arthur argues that Trump may prefer a crisis to occur sooner rather than later, so he can blame it on Biden and Harris, which could lead to a correction in the stock market and, consequently, a dip in Bitcoin’s price.”
In essence, Arthur sees Bitcoin as a function of global liquidity, and a short-term stock market correction—triggered by central banks clashing with Powell and global leaders—could be the catalyst for a Bitcoin pullback.
Fair enough. We briefly pivoted to AI before circling back to crypto.
I had to get Arthur’s take on DeepSeek:
“There are two camps: There’s one camp, oh, this is just fake, China just doing China things, you know, it's fake, propaganda, blah blah blah… or Xi Jinping or those in the Chinese Communist Party would not pick a bunch of hedge fund guys as the conduit for how they're going to develop the AI that's going to defeat America. I think they actually did build this thing very, very cheaply, and they didn’t have a lot of government support because they’re not the type of people who would get government support… Deepseek completely destroys this narrative that the more you spend, the better your AI is, and therefore, because we have the most capital, we will have the best AI.”
Arthur and I see DeepSeek the same way—a wake-up call for investors who bought into an overpriced AI market, likely leading to capital rotation from big tech to smaller tech and an increasingly competitive AI landscape.
From here, we went full crypto—Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, altcoins, memecoins. Probably the part everyone was waiting for.
Arthur’s take on where we are in the cycle:
“My next paper is going to be all about why I think the Trump political meme coin is the start of a whole new asset class, with politicians around the world using meme coins. The best thing about meme coins is you don't need to know anything about finance to trade them. It's literally: do I know who this person is? Do I think more people will know who this person is in the future? If yes, I buy it. If no, then I don't buy it.”
I followed up: “Since you believe memes are here to stay, does that mean Solana remains the meme coin casino and will continue to do well?”
“It’s Solana's game to lose at this point. You're going to have other chains, like APTOS and other layer ones, trying to come up and say, ‘Oh wow, look at all these transactions, look at all these fees, I need to be in there too.’ Don't sleep on Ethereum, maybe they stop selling their coins as a foundation, get their shit together, and come up with some sort of answer as well. It's the same story as Nvidia. Ethereum back in 2020 was the Nvidia of today—super successful, trading at some ridiculous multiple, and then someone says, ‘Oh, I can do that better, cheaper, and faster.’ Maybe it's not decentralized or whatever, but you can make all these claims about what Solana is or isn't, or any of these other layer ones, in terms of security and all the things Ethereum prides itself on. But at the end of the day, the customer doesn't care. It was faster, cheaper, and I used it. You had something on there that wasn’t on Ethereum, so I used it. Hopefully, for those who are massively long, Solana doesn't fall victim to the same thing that happened with Nvidia and Ethereum—becoming a faster, cheaper, shinier version.”
I pushed further: “Do you think people will start caring about utility in this market cycle?”
“So, I think if you believe that we need to have another 2020 DeFi summer or a 2017 ICO situation again, things have changed. We have meme coins now, so go with where the market is. Does that mean useful things won’t get built? Of course not. You know, we're funding useful things, and hopefully we pick the next Ethena of the next cycle. But at the end of the day, it’s going to be harder to pick those things because retail capital is done with high FDV, low-flow VC coins. They want instant liquidity on meme coins and trade their favorite celebrity politician.”
On $TRUMP:
“We'll see how that resolves itself in 2028.”
Since ETH panic is at an all-time high, I went back to this topic and asked if it could still perform well this cycle.
“For sure. I mean, the Electric Capital report still says that they have the most developers. That's all I need to see. You still have people building on Ethereum. We still fund lots of really intelligent people building new stuff on Ethereum. It's still, what, three or four times the market cap of Solana, so it's still the number two. It has name recognition and all that.”
“I wouldn't count them out. I don’t know the politics of the foundation; all I read is what’s on Twitter, and you know, they’re selling coins—that’s it. Do I care about their mission or whatever? No. Sounds like Vitalik cares about the price, so maybe he’ll do something about it. I don’t know, maybe the community will demand something, but at the end of the day, even without all that, there’s a lot of hate. And when there’s a lot of hate, there’s a lot of opportunity.”
“The Solana ETF is not going to be as successful as the Ethereum one, or a Ripple one, or a Cardano one, or whatever down the line, unless you get a mental shift, and that takes time.”
From here, Arthur wrapped up by reiterating his macro view—Bitcoin to $250K is just a checkpoint on the way to $1M.
“$250,000 is a stop in the way. It's this realignment of the chessboard, and everyone on the board is going to print money to help themselves out.”
Here’s what I think: trying to pinpoint a temporary bottom is a fool’s game. The market is still unwinding excess hopium around Day 1 SBR expectations while digesting macro factors—big tech, AI, Trump’s tariffs, Powell’s positioning. None of these narratives are long-term, but a fragile market doesn’t need much to tip over. Once enough people believe the bull market is over, prices will likely reverse aggressively. That’s the most probable outcome—unless something major happens, like a surprise SBR announcement or Trump eliminating crypto taxes.
The current pessimism, particularly toward alts, is telling. Retail is underexposed to Bitcoin, while institutions remain heavily allocated. There’s no guarantee alts will have their moment, but if history is a guide, the pendulum will swing once people have written them off completely.
Bitcoin is the winner this cycle. Alts are an uphill battle. Even the strongest contender, Solana, hasn’t meaningfully outperformed Bitcoin in a while.
See the SOL/BTC ratio below.
The point is, stack Bitcoin first and sprinkle in whatever else fits your appetite. I’d rather not see $70K before $250K, but if it means an extended cycle with a higher final target, I’ll take it.
If you haven’t seen the episode yet, you can do so HERE.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop, breaking below the key support level of 99,860 and closing decisively beneath it. The daily chart shows a strong bearish candle, with price currently trading around 94,896. This move has brought Bitcoin into the lower range of its broader consolidation zone, with the next major support sitting near the shaded region between 90,000 and 92,000.
The 50-day moving average, which had previously been acting as dynamic support, has been lost, signaling increased bearish momentum. Volume has spiked, confirming the strength of the breakdown and indicating that sellers are in control for now.
If Bitcoin finds support near the 90,000–92,000 zone, a bounce could occur, but any recovery would face resistance at 99,860, which may now act as a ceiling. Bulls will need to reclaim this level to shift momentum back in their favor. Failure to hold the current support zone could lead to further downside, potentially testing levels closer to 85,000.
Traders should remain cautious, as the breakdown invalidates the previous bullish structure, and the market is showing increased volatility. Watching for a strong reaction at the current support zone will be critical to determine the next direction.
I bought the dip last night.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Altcoins are riding the pain train to hell. As you can see, Bitcoin Dominance had one of its largest short term moves in history, spiking as high as ~64.50%. It is currently sitting at 61.71.%, as altcoins reel on the back of economic fears from Trump tariffs.
This is the highest level since 2020.
ETH dropped as much as 35% in a 24 hour period - proving I was very early to that trade. We will see if I was wrong in the coming months.
I bought more at $2,150. I also bought $BTC, $SOL and $SUI.
$2.2B was liquidated from crypto markets on leverage - the most in 24 hours ever. More than covid. More than FTX.
Crazy.
This cycle is playing on hard mode - be careful out there.
Legacy Markets
Global markets tumbled as President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with a warning that European levies are next. The Bloomberg Dollar Index surged 0.9% to a two-year high before paring gains, while the Canadian dollar sank to its lowest level since 2003 and the euro weakened, approaching parity with the dollar. The S&P 500 futures dropped 1.6%, reflecting investor concerns over the economic impact of the trade war.
The effects rippled across sectors, with oil prices climbing due to fears of supply disruptions, and European automakers Volkswagen and Stellantis falling over 5%. Cryptocurrencies also took a hit, with Ether plunging 11% as investors retreated from riskier assets. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that US equities could decline by as much as 5%, while RBC Capital Markets projected a potential 10% drop.
The market reaction underscores fears that the tariffs will drive inflation higher as companies pass on costs to consumers, slowing economic growth. Bloomberg Economics estimated the tariffs could shave 1.2% off US GDP and add 0.7% to core inflation. Emerging markets were also hit, with the Mexican peso weakening over 2% and the South African rand down 1.5% after Trump announced a halt to US funding to the country over a controversial land seizure law.
Energy markets braced for further disruption, with tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports threatening North America’s oil supply chain. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 2.4%, while gasoline futures soared over 6% as refiners anticipated higher costs. Meanwhile, in Europe, financial stocks slumped—Julius Baer dropped more than 10% after announcing job cuts, and Raiffeisen Bank fell on reports of clients tied to the Russian military. Investors remain on edge as the global economy navigates Trump’s most aggressive protectionist measures in nearly a century.
Key Events This Week:
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook, Monday
Alphabet, UBS, BNP Paribas earnings, Tuesday
New Zealand unemployment, Wednesday
Toyota earnings, Wednesday
China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
UK rate decision, Thursday
Amazon earnings, Thursday
Mexico rate decision, Thursday
India rate decision, Friday
Canada unemployment, Friday
US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 1.7% as of 7:40 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.9%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.4%
The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0273
The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2342
The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 154.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $95,183.79
Ether fell 10% to $2,612.17
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.50%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.38%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.47%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $74.46 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,807.64 an ounce
The Bitcoin Map Is Lighting Up
Every time I check this map, more states are glowing orange. Right now, 13 states have either introduced Bitcoin bills, have bills in committee, or have passed committee. After clearing committee, a bill must go through a chamber vote and be approved. Once enacted, depending on its stipulations, the state may be able to purchase Bitcoin immediately. Initially, I expected only a handful of bills to pass by the end of 2025, but at this pace, we could see far more—and state Bitcoin purchases happening much sooner than EOY.
On the website, scroll down to see detailed updates:
Coinbase Earnings Are In 10 Days
The market is in a weird spot right now, digesting the Trump tariff news, but one stock I’m watching closely is Coinbase and how it reacts to its Q4 earnings report on Feb 13. Without diving deep into the numbers, just take a look at the chart below.
What stands out is the massive uptick in volume, which coincided with Bitcoin’s run from $60k to $100k. Coinbase has countless ways to generate revenue—futures, international markets, Base, subscription plans, borrowing and lending, stablecoin revenue, and more—but nothing comes close to trading volumes. Volume has historically been the sleeping giant that ignites COIN, and if Bitcoin keeps climbing, volumes are likely to explode.
Speaking of long-term trends, Bitwise’s CIO shared an interesting stat about Bitcoin ETFs—unrelated to Coinbase but worth mentioning: “So far, so good. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $4.94 billion in January alone, which annualizes to around $59 billion. For context, they brought in $35.2 billion in all of 2024.”
Tether Releases Its Q4 Attestation Report
Below are some key highlights from Tether’s Q4 report. This company continues to steamroll through both bull and bear markets, solidifying its dominance in the stablecoin space. Tether posted impressive profits, strengthened its reserves, and expanded its market presence, proving its resilience and importance to the broader crypto ecosystem.
“A highlight of the quarter is Tether’s increased exposure to U.S. Treasuries, which reached $113 billion in direct and indirect holdings—another all-time high.”
“Additionally, Tether’s excess reserve buffer exceeded $7 billion for the first time, marking a 36% yearly increase and solidifying Tether’s unparalleled financial resilience.”
“Q4 also saw the issuance of over $23 billion in USD₮, contributing to a total issuance of $45 billion for 2024 which represents almost the entire market cap of the second largest stablecoin,”
“Tether achieved these milestones while recognizing the performance of its gold and Bitcoin holdings, which generated unrealized profits of approximately $5 billion during the year.”
Tokenized Gold On Ethereum
This is really cool. UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, is testing a tokenized gold product, UBS Key4 Gold, on Ethereum layer-2 network ZKsync. The product enables fractional gold investments with real-time pricing, deep liquidity, and secure storage. The test deployment of smart contracts was successful, reflecting UBS’s broader digital asset strategy. ZKsync co-founder Alex Gluchowski sees this as a step toward blockchain-based finance, with ZK technology driving future growth. My guess is that others will copy this idea, and we should see an asset traded soon that reflects the real-time price of gold and is commonly used by crypto investors.
Crypto Is About To Go Parabolic - Here’s Why | Avery Ching, Aptos Labs
In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, we delve into the transformative journey of Avery Ching, co-founder and CTO of Aptos Labs. We explore how his innovative work is shaping the future of blockchain technology and its real-world applications. Join us as we uncover insights that could redefine our understanding of decentralized systems.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.