The Wolf Den #1128 - Bitcoin Is The Only Winner
So Far...
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share the news, my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and my random musings. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE. Subscribe!
Today’s Newsletter Is Made Possible By Phemex!
Join me on Phemex and unlock up to 30,000 USDT in exclusive rewards! Use my link HERE.
Phemex is the most efficient crypto trading and investment platform. Phemex offers over 400 trading pairs, minimal fees, peer to peer trading, derivatives, up to 100x leverage.
Make sure to check if Phemex is available in your jurisdiction.
In This Issue:
Bitcoin Is The Only Winner
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Is The Four-Year Cycle Now A Myth?
Trump Media Seeks Investments In Crypto
Vlad Tenev Makes A Solid Argument For Tokenization
Powell Confirms Banks Can Serve Crypto Customers
Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming! Institutions Are Buying BIG
Bitcoin Is The Only Winner
Every cycle is unique, but this one is breaking the mold in ways past cycles never have—let me explain.
That sentence was a bit of a tongue-twister, so here’s what I mean: while every bull and bear market has its own quirks, this time around, the deviations aren’t just within the usual range of expected variations. The entire framework seems off.
Right now, the timeline is split between those calling for a short-term cycle top and those arguing we’ve already hit the definitive peak. Meanwhile, the vast majority of altcoins haven’t even come close to their all-time highs—some haven’t even broken out yet.
Normally, this is where I’d compare Bitcoin’s performance to the majors and altcoins, but let’s be real—we all check our portfolios dozens of times a day. We already know they’re still below previous cycle highs. If yours isn’t, well, congrats!
What’s wild is that this is happening while Bitcoin is holding firmly above $100,000. If you had asked anyone a couple of years ago where Solana, ETH, NFTs, and altcoins would be if Bitcoin hit six figures, 99% of people would have said, “much higher.”
Yet, even Solana—the undisputed darling of this cycle—still hasn’t broken past its 2021 all-time high vs. Bitcoin. Not even close.
This cycle is different because, so far, it’s been all about Bitcoin. Everyone who followed the playbook from past cycles—buy quality alts to outperform Bitcoin—has been blindsided. Bitcoin has been the only true winner.
I can’t stress this enough: this market has never been and will never be easy. Be proud of the sats you’ve stacked, the alts you’ve held onto, and the dollars you’ve earned. None of it has been smooth sailing, and it never will be.
Part of the issue is the expectation that Bitcoin would cool off and altcoins would take off. But Bitcoin never really cooled off—it’s just oscillated between slow, steady grinding and sudden elevator moves. Meanwhile, narratives that should have sparked more interest—tokenization, RWAs, AI, and ETF inflows for ETH—haven’t delivered the expected results.
Right now, memes on Solana are the only game in town besides Bitcoin, and even then, Solana itself still hasn’t reclaimed its former highs.
I’m not complaining, but every day we’re bombarded with Bitcoin news. For Bitcoin holders, this is a dream come true. I hold Bitcoin—clearly not enough—and with each passing day, I’m more convinced that we’re inching closer to the global adoption we only dreamed about in previous cycles. But as an altcoin holder, it kind of sucks.
States are moving toward buying Bitcoin, obscure companies are stacking it, and shareholders of major corporations are pushing for its adoption. Countries are turning more Bitcoin-friendly, big banks are softening their stance, billionaires are singing its praises, and a Bitcoin SBR is officially on the table. Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin—everywhere you look.
A part of me wonders: if altcoins didn’t exist, would Bitcoin have already hit $200,000? Or maybe even $500,000 or a million? Is it possible that the maxis are right—that everything else is just leeching off the only asset that truly matters? I reject that idea, by the way, but the timeline does make you think.
Take a look at this map—it’s a work of art:
The states you see above are Massachusetts, Kansas, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Ohio, Utah, Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.
Click HERE to view the interactive map.
At the pace U.S. states are moving, I’m confident that by the end of 2025, half of this map will be orange, and a handful of states will have likely started buying. Two states have already passed Bitcoin bills out of committee, meaning they now face House and Senate votes.
But the Bitcoin momentum yesterday wasn’t just confined to the U.S. We learned that the Czech central bank is meeting today to vote on allocating up to 5% of its reserves to Bitcoin! Out of nowhere, a $360 billion economy seems to be warming up to Bitcoin in a big way. In just one day, we heard strong pro-Bitcoin statements from both Czech National Bank (CNB) Governor Aleš Michl and David Havrlant, Chief Economist for the Czech Republic.
“Those [Trump] guys can now kind of create some bubble for Bitcoin, but I think the trend would be an increase without those guys as well, because it’s an alternative [investment] for more people.” — Czech National Bank (CNB) Governor Aleš Michl
“It’s possible to have a big range of outcomes, that Bitcoin will have a value of zero or an absolutely fantastic value…but in our history, we have also had some stocks like Enron or the payment company Wirecard, so we have some experience with bad investments. So, yes, I’m ready [for a possible Bitcoin collapse].” — Czech National Bank (CNB) Governor Aleš Michl
“I believe that Bitcoin is more and more perceived as a standard asset and expect other central banks to follow suit. The CNB has many times proven its role as a front-runner, be it inflation targeting or macroprudential framework.” — David Havrlant, Chief Economist for the Czech Republic
This was just one of the many headlines making waves yesterday:
Pro-Bitcoin politicians—Donald Trump included—are in for a rude awakening if countries start buying Bitcoin left and right without months of political tug-of-war. Right now, the biggest roadblock preventing the U.S. from making a move on Bitcoin isn’t a lack of support—it’s the sheer size and inefficiency of the system. The right people are in place, the momentum is there, but the machine simply can’t move as fast as a smaller, more agile country pulling the trigger overnight.
At some point, I do expect new and old crypto narratives to finally break through and leave a real mark on this market. But for now, all eyes remain on Bitcoin, and that focus doesn’t seem to be shifting anytime soon. Like many of you, I hold alts, and every passing day, I watch Bitcoin climb while my other positions remain stagnant—and yeah, it stings. But I believe we are earlier than we realize. And if that’s the case, patience will pay off in a big way.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a strong move higher, breaking above the descending trendline that had been in place since the recent all-time high. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum back to the bulls. Yesterday’s candle closed near the highs, indicating sustained buying pressure throughout the session.
The price is now challenging the key resistance level at 106,099, a critical area to watch. A daily close above this level could signal a continuation of the uptrend and open the door for a retest of the all-time high at 109,358. On the downside, support remains firm at 99,860, which aligns closely with the 50-day moving average and continues to act as a safety net for the bulls.
Volume has picked up slightly during this breakout, which adds confidence to the move. However, a confirmed breakout requires follow-through, so today’s close will be crucial to assess whether this momentum can be sustained. Traders will be watching for a clean close above resistance or a potential pullback to retest the trendline or support levels below.
Altcoin Charts
We reached peak depression on altcoins over the past few days - right as the charts were starting to show oversold RSI with bullish divergence, my favorite signal.
While Bitcoin continues to dominate, moments like these are ripe for bounces on stronger altcoins.
I love that my followers on X send ME charts with bullish divergence!
Legacy Markets
US and European stocks climbed on Wednesday as strong corporate earnings and expectations of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut boosted investor sentiment. The Stoxx 600 hit a record high, with Spanish banks BBVA and CaixaBank rallying after strong earnings, while Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures gained 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. IBM jumped in premarket trading on a strong sales outlook, and Apple is expected to post record results later today.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, signaling a “wait and see” approach as inflation remains above its 2% target. Meanwhile, European government bonds rose as weak GDP data from Germany and France reinforced expectations for a quarter-point ECB rate cut on Thursday. Analysts noted the growing divergence between US and European growth expectations, with a more dovish outlook for the ECB relative to the Fed.
In tech, Microsoft shares fell 3.9% after reporting weaker-than-expected cloud revenue growth, while Tesla gained 2.3% on forecasts of rising vehicle sales in 2025. Meta climbed more than 2% after strong earnings. The AI sector remains in focus as Chinese startup DeepSeek’s advancements raised questions about Silicon Valley’s spending and investment strategies.
In currency markets, the yen strengthened 0.6% against the dollar as traders placed fresh bets on the currency. With the ECB’s decision looming, investors remain focused on global monetary policy shifts and their impact on equity markets.
Key events this week:
Eurozone ECB rate decision, consumer confidence, unemployment, GDP, Thursday
US GDP, jobless claims, Thursday
Apple, Deutsche Bank earnings, Thursday
US personal income & spending, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% as of 10:43 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0410
The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 154.42 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2672 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.2443
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $105,225.34
Ether rose 2.3% to $3,211.79
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.50%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.52%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.3% to $76.36 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,778.85 an ounce
Is The Four-Year Cyle Now A Myth?
One of the biggest questions on crypto investors’ minds is whether the four-year cycle still holds up. The halving will continue like clockwork, but its impact should diminish over time as more investors understand Bitcoin’s supply mechanics and price in those effects. Additionally, the halving no longer perfectly aligns with cycle tops and bottoms, which could weaken the traditional four-year rhythm we’ve seen in the past. As Bitcoin matures, we should also expect its boom-and-bust swings to smooth out as adoption widens and the investor base expands.
Matt Hougan from Bitwise argues the following:
“The thing I’m wrestling with is that the downstream positive effects of the EO, plus the other changes in Washington, will be felt over the course of years, not months. In the absolute best-case scenario, it will take a year to align on and implement a new regulatory framework for crypto. It will take longer than that for the behemoths on Wall Street to fully orient themselves to crypto’s possibilities.
If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new “crypto winter” in 2026? Will investors go into hibernation even though they know we’ve entered a new crypto-enabled world? If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?
My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis.
But my guess is that any pullback will be shorter and shallower than in years past. Why? The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026.
As for now, it's full steam ahead. The crypto train is leaving the station.”
Trump Media Seeks Investments In Crypto
Trump Media is expanding into crypto with the launch of Truth.Fi, a new financial technology brand. Following the announcement, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) surged 15% in pre-market trading. The company plans to allocate up to $250 million into investment accounts, Bitcoin, and other crypto-related securities, with Charles Schwab managing the funds. CEO Devin Nunes framed Truth.Fi as an extension of the Truth Social movement, hinting at multiple investment products rolling out this year.
Below is the official statement from the SEC 8-K filing:
“To diversify the Company’s cash and cash-equivalent reserves of over $700 million as of December 31, 2024, the board has approved the investment of up to $250 million to be custodied by Charles Schwab. In addition to traditional investment vehicles, these funds may be allocated to:
Customized separately managed accounts (“SMAs”);
Customized exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”);
Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies or crypto-related securities.”
“We look forward to launching Truth.Fi, introducing TMTG’s investment vehicles, and unlocking synergies…now we’re moving into investment products and decentralized finance. Developing American First investment vehicles is another step toward our goal of creating a robust ecosystem through which American patriots can protect themselves from the ever-present threat of cancellation, censorship, debanking, and privacy violations committed by Big Tech and woke corporations.”
Vlad Tenev Makes A Solid Argument For Tokenization
When I write about the benefits of tokenization, I usually highlight instant global settlement, asset democratization, and increased flexibility and control over ownership. But a few days ago, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev wrote an op-ed for The Washington Post that introduced a completely different perspective—one I hadn’t considered before and rarely see discussed. This marks the second high-profile figure in a week (following Larry Fink) calling on the SEC to address tokenization so major institutions can begin innovating.
Tokenization is nowhere close to being priced in.
“The investment gap is worsening as increasingly avoid going public; the United States has roughly half as many public companies as it did in 1996. Meanwhile, “accredited investor” rules, which generally restrict private market investments to those with a net worth over $ 1 million or income over $200,000 shut roughly 80% of U.S. households out of the private market.”
“Tokenizing private-company stock would enable retail investors to invest in leading companies early in their life cycles before they potentially go public at valuations of more than $100 billion. This would also benefit the companies themselves, enabling them to draw additional capital by tapping into a global retail crypto market that is growing increasingly more sophisticated and investment-savvy, without sacrificing the private company protections they are used to -- such as employee vesting and stock holding requirements.”
“Because private-company stock is already regulated as a security by the SEC, the commission is best positioned to swiftly modernize our securities laws and make tokenization of real-world assets possible.”
“A new era of ultra-inclusive and customizable investing fit for this century. The world is tokenizing, and the United States should not get left behind.”
Powell Confirms Banks Can Serve Crypto Customers
“Our role with Bitcoin and crypto is to look at the banks, and we believe banks are perfectly able to serve crypto customers as long as they understand and can manage the risks in a safe and sound manner. A good number of the banks we regulate and supervise do that. The threshold has been a little higher for banks engaging in crypto activities... We're not against innovation... Banks shouldn't have to terminate customers.” You can see and feel the tone shifting in D.C. Powell’s remarks don’t introduce anything new to the conversation, but they send a strong signal that Bitcoin and crypto are here to stay in the U.S.
Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming! Institutions Are Buying BIG
I’m joined by Markus Thielen from 10x Research and James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, to dive into the latest crypto news and market insights.
Chris Inks joins us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Aptos - The blockchain network with everything you need to build your big idea. Unrivaled Speed, Unprecedented Trust, and an Unstoppable Community on Aptos.
Phemex - Join me on Phemex and unlock up to 30,000 USDT in exclusive rewards! Phemex is the most efficient crypto trading and investment platform.
Arch Public - It’s a hedge fund in your pocket. Built for retail traders, designed to outperform Wall Street. Try emotionless algorithmic trading at Arch Public today.
Trading Alpha - Trade With Confidence! My new go-to indicator site and trading community. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount.
X - I spend most of my time on X, contributing to CryptoTownHall every weekday morning, sharing random charts, and responding to as many of you as I can.
YouTube - Home of the Wolf Of All Streets Podcast and daily livestreams. Market updates, charts, and analysis! Sit down, strap in, and get ready—we’re going deep
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.