The Wolf Den #1121 - Trump’s First Day
No SBR... Today
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In This Issue:
Trump’s First Day
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Rumble Begins Buying Bitcoin
World Liberty Financial Is On A Buying Spree
Crypto Platforms Were Stress Tested This Past Weekend
Bitcoin Skyrockets, Trump Makes Billions Of $$$ Overnight Selling Memecoins | Macro Monday
Trump’s First Day
Absolution [ ab-suh-loo-shuhn ]
“act of absolving; a freeing from blame or guilt; release from consequences, obligations, or penalties.”
If there’s one thing the crypto community shares, it’s a remarkably short memory. While the scars of bear market trauma—like FTX’s collapse, Operation Chokepoint, SEC lawsuits, and more—still linger, their impact tends to cause only brief hesitation in investor decision-making. Time and time again, crypto investors have shown an uncanny ability to forgive and forget.
It’s both a blessing and a curse.
I’m certain that when Trump directs the U.S. to start buying Bitcoin, not only will his and his wife’s coins skyrocket to new all-time highs, but he’ll also be hailed as a true champion of crypto, no matter his past missteps. At the end of the day, investors follow their bags—and I can’t blame anyone for that. Ultimately, we all share a common goal: improving our financial well-being, supporting our families, and helping our home countries thrive.
You can feel the collective mood whip back and forth as this week’s events continue to unfold.
Not to be an asshole, but technically, the ‘Bitcoin purchase’ by WLF was wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), an ERC-20 token representing Bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain.
I wrote the first part of this newsletter late at night, waiting for Trump’s day-one executive orders to drop. In the meantime, I figured I’d tackle the FOMO many crypto investors might be feeling after missing out on $TRUMP or $MELANIA. If that’s you, I’ve got some remedies. Then we’ll address the glaring absence of crypto executive orders.
First, Know Thyself
If you’re not someone who’s always in the trenches hunting for the next multi-billion-dollar meme or altcoin, ask yourself: is now really the right time to jump in? Be honest. My best advice? Talk yourself out of this mindset—because for 90% of people, it likely won’t end well.
If you can’t resist, at least come prepared. Decide in advance how much you’re willing to lose entirely on speculative assets. Download a few popular wallets—Moonshot is essential, along with Phantom, MetaMask, and maybe Trust Wallet. Load them with ETH and SOL but keep some powder dry for the right opportunity.
Turn on notifications for Trump, Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and WLF. Next, do your research on who really knows how to spot genuine opportunities versus those pushing their own overcooked bags. The line is thin, but understanding it could make all the difference.
Smart Moves Without the Degeneracy
For those looking to capitalize without going full degen, congratulations—you’re already ahead. Trump launching a meme coin doesn’t fundamentally change most of the predictions for 2025. In fact, it highlights that maybe we haven’t been thinking creatively enough.
Go back and review reports from Bitwise, VanEck, Fidelity, Bernstein, Matrixport, or Galaxy Digital. While reading, focus on two things: where the cutting edge of innovation and technology is and how price predictions change if the U.S. buys Bitcoin.
Here’s the secret: the hype around memes hasn’t erased the significance of tokenization, real-world assets, AI agents, NFTs, companies buying Bitcoin, or new crypto partnerships with Wall Street. Memes will undoubtedly drive money flow, but they’re not the only opportunity. Pay attention to what big firms are predicting—these ideas are still in the ‘most likely will happen’ category and remain underpriced.
Revisit Bitcoin Predictions With Fresh Eyes
As you re-read these reports, scrutinize what underpins their Bitcoin predictions. Do they account for a potential U.S. government Bitcoin purchase? If not, consider the upside if it happens. Bitwise was blunt: “If the U.S. government follows through on proposals to establish a 1 million Bitcoin strategic reserve, $200,000 becomes $500,000 or more. If the U.S. announces it is buying 1 million Bitcoins for a strategic reserve, we could reach $1 million per Bitcoin much faster.”
Some firms, on the other hand, take a cautious approach, factoring the uncertainty of an SBR into their predictions. This understates Bitcoin’s potential for this year.
Bitcoin doesn’t need Trump or the U.S. The reverse is true. Holding Bitcoin now lets you front-run the government and grow your wealth over time. When the house of cards collapses, Bitcoin will recover the fastest and with the least damage.
The Current Reality: A Whole Lot of Nothing
Trump’s inaugural address and his two rounds of executive orders—nearly 100 in total—yielded nothing crypto-related. No mention of Bitcoin, no SBR executive order, no roadmap for making America a Bitcoin mining powerhouse, no end to Operation Chokepoint 2.0, no Bitcoin and crypto Presidential Advisory Council, no CBDC creation, and no commutation of Ross Ulbricht’s sentence. A mountain of hype delivered a pile of nothing.
BUT…
There’s still reason for hope. For starters, there’s this.
Plus, executive orders aren’t just a day-one activity. Trump signed them steadily throughout his first term, and there’s no reason to think this time will be any different. Just because he didn’t explicitly mention Bitcoin or crypto on day one doesn’t mean it’s not on the radar. His sons were busy yesterday, scooping up Bitcoin, ETH, and other assets like the future depended on it. Trump has already followed through on removing Gensler, has a strong roster of policy and regulatory advisors, and appointed a pro-crypto team. I’m not concerned—and clearly, the market isn’t either.
I look forward to the day when the U.S. isn’t the only focus of this newsletter. But for now, the biggest stories are unfolding right here, in my backyard. The U.S. needs Bitcoin, and we’ve never been closer to that reality. Don’t let the lack of a day-one executive order shake your confidence—trust me, we’re heading higher.
Much higher.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a significant development with yesterday’s intraday move briefly breaking into a new all-time high before facing a strong rejection. Price temporarily peaked above $108,388, marking a short-lived new high, before retreating below that level and forming a long upper wick. Despite the rejection, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, holding the critical $100,000 (or more specifically $99,860) support level for three consecutive days.
This consolidation above $100K is a constructive sign, as it establishes a base of strong demand at this psychological and technical level. The long lower wicks on the recent candles suggest buyers are actively stepping in to defend this area. Furthermore, price remains well above the 50-day moving average, reinforcing the overall bullish structure of the chart.
For the next moves, $106,100 represents immediate resistance ahead of the $108,388 high. A close above $108,388 would confirm a breakout to new sustained highs, while another failure could see Bitcoin retest $99,860 for support. Bulls will look for continued consolidation above $100K to build momentum for a fresh leg higher. Bears, however, will need to push price decisively below $99,860 to weaken the bullish trend. The chart reflects a healthy uptrend, with buyers in control as long as $99,860 holds.
The 4-hour Bitcoin line chart is displaying a textbook example of bearish divergence, one of the most reliable signals for potential trend reversals. This divergence is evident as price formed a higher high, while the RSI simultaneously printed a lower high. The RSI was previously overbought, another classic component that enhances the validity of this signal.
This is my favorite local top signal.
Using the line chart for spotting divergence provides a cleaner view, removing noise from intrabar fluctuations. This method highlights the contrast between the weakening momentum (as shown by the declining RSI) and the continued upward push in price. The divergence suggests that bullish momentum has waned and increases the likelihood of a short-term pullback or consolidation phase.
Traders should exercise caution here, as divergence doesn't guarantee immediate reversal but rather signals a potential shift in momentum. Watching for a break of recent local support or further weakening RSI will be key in confirming this bearish divergence as a precursor to further downside movement.
Legacy Markets
Global markets reacted cautiously to President Donald Trump’s inauguration, with initial relief over the absence of sweeping tariffs tempered by concerns over upcoming levies on Canadian and Mexican imports. US equity futures rose 0.5%, while European stocks gained, despite carmakers slipping on tariff fears. The dollar strengthened 0.6%, and Treasury yields eased, reflecting mixed sentiment as traders weighed potential benefits of fiscal stimulus and tax cuts against trade-related risks.
The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar were hit hardest, falling 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively, after Trump threatened tariffs of up to 25% on imports from these countries starting February 1. Meanwhile, Trump ordered a freeze on offshore wind-power developments, triggering steep declines in stocks like Vestas Wind Systems and Orsted. Analysts noted that Trump’s focus on North America has spared Europe for now, helping European equities maintain their recent outperformance.
Earnings season resumes with reports from 3M, Netflix, and United Airlines, while investors monitor developments at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Strategists highlighted the likelihood of increased market volatility driven by Trump’s policy announcements and unpredictable trade strategies. While deregulation and milder-than-expected tariffs could support risk assets, the market remains wary of abrupt shifts in US trade policy.
Key events this week:
UK jobless claims, unemployment, Tuesday
Canada CPI, Tuesday
ECB President Christine Lagarde and other officials speak at Davos, Wednesday
South Korea GDP, Thursday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
Trump will join the World Economic Forum for an online “dialogue”
Japan CPI, rate decision, Friday
India, euro area, UK PMIs, Friday
ECB President Christine Lagarde and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speak at Davos, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as of 5:52 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0352
The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.2249
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 155.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $103,200.48
Ether rose 0.6% to $3,300.75
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.57%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.52%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.66%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $76.12 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,720.02 an ounce
Rumble Begins Buying Bitcoin
Rumble, the video streaming platform backed by Tether, has taken a significant step in its Bitcoin strategy. After announcing plans last November to purchase up to $20 million worth of Bitcoin, the platform made its first acquisition last Friday, with more purchases on the horizon. Rumble's potential to mirror MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin playbook is noteworthy. With Tether’s robust financial backing, a roster of influential pro-Bitcoin supporters like Peter Thiel, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Vice President-elect JD Vance, and a cloud services agreement with the Government of El Salvador, Rumble is positioning itself to emerge as a major Bitcoin-friendly company.
World Liberty Financial Is On A Buying Spree
World Liberty Financial (WLF), Donald Trump’s DeFi platform, has been making waves with a series of aggressive moves in the crypto space over the past few days. The platform recently started securing Ethereum Name Service (ENS) domains tied to Trump family members, such as “barrontrump.eth,” “erictrump.eth,” “trumpcoin.eth,” and “worldliberty.eth.” Alongside these high-profile names, WLF also acquired some more obscure domains, including “9290.eth,” “yatogame.eth,” and “daolationship.eth.”
The motivations behind these acquisitions could range from laying the groundwork for future memecoin launches (because we clearly need more of those), to establishing a trusted digital identity or creating official wallet addresses for transactions. ENS names play a crucial role in brand identity, serving as both a marketing tool and a way to enhance user experience. It seems Trump’s team is serious about building a recognizable crypto community.
But that’s not all. WLF initiated a massive buying spree yesterday, snapping up assets at a rapid pace—and it doesn’t look like they’re slowing down anytime soon. The list of purchases already includes LINK, AAVE, TRX, ENA, WBTC, and ETH. Adding to the frenzy, WLF also staked its ETH, signaling deeper involvement in the ecosystem.
The real question is: Did Trump personally approve these moves? And does he even know what ETH staking is? While the answer might not matter to most in the crypto community, what does matter is whether their favorite coins are on WLF’s radar. For now, all eyes are on WLF as it continues to dominate the headlines.
Crypto Platforms Were Stress Tested This Past Weekend
It was a chaotic weekend, but overall, everything stayed mostly functional with minimal downtime. Exchanges rushed to list $TRUMP (whether that’s a good or bad thing is up for debate), and Phantom wallet faced unprecedented congestion but managed to hold steady.
As for Solana, there’s ongoing debate about whether the network itself went down. According to status.solana.com, no downtime was officially recorded, but there were undeniable periods of failed transactions on the blockchain, sparking some questions. Critics chimed in with the usual “just raise the slippage,” but let’s be real—that’s hardly a practical solution for everyday users trying to get transactions through.
While Solana’s performance wasn’t flawless, it weathered the storm of heightened activity better than some might have expected, though not without leaving room for improvement.
In other fitting news for this segment, Google Search trends for “how to buy crypto” and “Solana,” are skyrocketing.
The Ethereum Foundation May Stake Its ETH
There’s been some lively debate on X about criticisms directed at the Ethereum Foundation, particularly concerning its decision not to stake its ETH holdings. Critics argue that this sends a discouraging signal to the ecosystem and undermines the efforts of developers who worked tirelessly to transition Ethereum to proof-of-stake.
Vitalik’s response was measured, explaining that the initial decision was rooted in regulatory concerns and the potential complications of the Foundation being forced to take a side during a contentious hard fork. While these are valid points, I believe they don’t outweigh the negatives of the Foundation abstaining from staking its ETH.
Fortunately, Vitalik’s acknowledgment that these issues are being “explored” has sparked constructive discussions and encouraged optimism about a potential shift in policy.
This should be well recieved.
Bitcoin Skyrockets, Trump Makes Billions Of $$$ Overnight Selling Memecoins | Macro Monday
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.