The Wolf Den #112 - Trade Ideas
CRV/BTC
I like this anywhere above 256. This is one of the few coins that I have seen that appears to be flipping a level of resistance to support, although it is not confirmed yet on the daily chart. I am very wary of relief bounces back into resistance, which is something I am noticing across the board. 256 was a fresh resistance, so any close above that, especially on the daily, should indicate further movement up. I entered at 260, personally, with my stops very safely below 200 (199 shown here). I may actually tighten up that stop depending on price action, but my premise is that the 200 area would be a clear lower low, and I want to watch out for a wick to that area.
This is risky, this coin has don nothing but go down. But the potential here is huge if it is reversing, so it's worth it to me for the potential loss. The risk/reward on a move JUST BACK TO THE 23.6% Fibonacci would be 18.64 risk reward with my stop loss at 199. The smaller move is a 4.7.
The bullish divergence on this pair is not confirmed yet, but it will if price stays in the current area. If we see that, I expect to see RSI travel from oversold to overbought at some point, with price rising. This coin has basically always been oversold!
If we see really convincing alt movement, this could obvious head much higher than the targets. But let's not get fomo. Here is a zoomed out chart showing the fibs. Each red and black line is a potential target.
COMP/BTC
I have not entered this yet, because I want to see price above the resistance at 6370. That means candles closing above that level. There is clear potential bullish divergence with RSI on the daily, and RSI is still oversold. I like that. There are also potential tweezer bottoms on the daily candles, which is a sign of a bullish reversal. Still, for now this looks like a relief bounce and not a convincing reversal until it breaks 6370 and ideally the descending black line.
The entries shown target the first major resistance and the top of the descending line. The safest entry is a BREAK OF THE DESCENDING BLACK LINE, so I am telling you this setup far in advance. Expect resistance there, even if you enter lower.
Stop loss is where we would see a lower low, which we want to avoid. But that stop will change depending on your entry and YOUR OWN SETUP.
EASY/ETH
As mentioned on the livestream and in the newsletter, I like the setup for EASY. The pennant broke down and, as discussed, basically became a bull flag. The target is from wherever it breaks out , so this is just an idea. It is measure by the flagpole.
.0127 is a key resistance to support flip, so watch for that on the next 4 hour candle. If we see price break above that, I will consider an entry with a simply target of the top of the bull flag. If it breaks out, then we start discussing higher targets. This could easily head into price discovery at some point.
The REAL TRADE HERE is a break of the blue bull flag. So you have plenty of time to consider that entry.
EGLD/BTC
I have a soft spot for Elrond, and have been looking for another trade entry for ages. I still hold some as an investment. If you have been here a while, you know that this coin was ERD and that we traded it aggressively from 15 to 300 sats, a 20x. It was arguably the most profitable coin ever discussed in this newsletter. It's dropped since the rebrand, but it looks like it may finally be bottoming.
The setup shown above looks much like CRV. It looks good above 500, which is a local resistance to support flip in the making. Best to wait for a daily close above, but I have already entered because my position is small and I intend to add.
You can see a nice break of the descending line, which should be a signal this is ready to continue back up. I placed my stop at 457, below the current candle, which also has tweezer bottoms with the previous candle (although they are not exact). I do not want to see this closing for lower lows, hence the stop loss in that area. I will likely trail this up as it continues to rise and get my stop closer to 500 to start.
The immediate target is 793, 6.81 risk reward. I extrapolated that target by the top of the descending black line and a clear area where the last bounce was rejected. We can discuss higher targets if this actually hits 793.
Last but not least, massive and continued bullish divergences with oversold RSI. I drew it as a single line, but there are multiple divs in there over shorter time frames.
ETH/USD
This is more of an update than a setup at this point. I know many of you traded this with me on Phemex, as I am long from $386. Just wanted to show you how well this played out, retesting the channel breakout as support and flying.
More importantly, price made a higher high, confirmed the higher low that I have been discussing relentlessly. Bullish structure is confirmed and intact. Top of the range should hit sooner, and if it breaks above sky is the limit. I love ETH still.
REN/BTC
REN seems to be bouncing convincingly after faking out below the ascending white line. That's also a key area of support from the previous low, which I did not draw out. This really looks bottomed, making a slightly higher low than the previous two where the ascending line is drawn from. I love that. It is also moving through 1890, which is the first local resistance. Anything above that and above the descending white line is promising. I entered already, and will be watching for a flip of the 78.6% fib at 2075 to potentially add to the position higher. If you are not in this coin, that is where you could consider a higher entry with some confirmation it may continue up.
XRP/USD
I can't believe I am saying this but... I took a low leverage XRP/USD long on Phemex. This clearly already broke out and retested the descending resistance, which I missed because I was not paying attention to the pair.
The first setup shown above is mine. I took a small position with a wide stop, the target being the top of that descending black line. I entered because of the clear flip of the 50 MA. A retest of that blue MA could be another entry and you could place a stop where I did or even tighter if you wanted. I like the ascending blue line as the key support, because it represents a clear higher low. It is also tracking the 200MA (red line) perfectly, which will likely continued.
So now a higher high would confirm that higher low and we should be off to the races. That has not really happened yet. So now, the best entry (safest) would be a clear flip of .2598 to support. We are AT RESISTANCE NOW, so I would NOT BUY RIGHT HERE. Higher or lower, depending.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.