The Wolf Den #1112 - Buy Everything You Can!
I didn't say it, Bernstein did.
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In This Issue:
Buy Everything You Can!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
MicroStrategy’s Year In Review
Good Economic Data Brings Down Risk Assets
Ripple Teams Up With Chainlink
Polymarket Updates
Bitcoin To Hit $200K, Analysts Forecast Massive Growth For All Cryptocurrencies
Buy Everything You Can!
Do you remember this absurd line from Bernstein that surfaced a couple of months ago?
“Don’t fight this—add crypto exposure ASAP. Call us if you need help.”
We can all agree this is a bit manic, right? I made the meme above because it perfectly captures my interpretation of Bernstein's choice of words.
Anyway, Bernstein has just released their 2025 predictions, and of course, I had to share them here.
Unfortunately, the full report hasn’t been made public, but a few media outlets have provided commentary, allowing us to piece together the highlights. For those unfamiliar with Bernstein’s style, the firm has a reputation for being one of the most aggressive crypto forecasters—as you might have guessed from the memo above.
Bernstein is one of the few firms that has boldly predicted Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2033. For this cycle, they’ve set their sights on Bitcoin reaching $200,000. Back in their October report, they wrote, “This new institutional era, in our view, could push Bitcoin to a high of $200,000 by the end of 2025.”
Now, let’s dive into their latest predictions.
The Infinity Age is “a long period marked by relentless evolution and widespread acceptance, leading to a point where crypto is no longer controversial — just part of the financial system built for the new intelligent age,” Gautam Chhugani and other analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
Do note that the predictions below are sourced from THIS article written by The Block and may not be direct quotes from the Bernstein report, as the report itself was not made public.
Prediction 1
“Kicking off their expectations, the analysts reiterated their $200,000 bitcoin price target by the end of 2025 amid a rising narrative around sovereign adoption following President-elect Donald Trump's strategic bitcoin stockpile campaign pledge.”
Here’s further context I found on this prediction:
“A national bitcoin reserve announcement by the U.S. would spark a global sovereign race to acquire bitcoin amongst nation-states. Our bitcoin price expectation of $200K does not factor government demand — only institutional and corporate demand.”
Prediction 2
“While the analysts are uncertain whether actual nation-state buying begins this year, they do expect continued growth in corporate treasury adoption, anticipating inflows of more than $50 billion in 2025 compared to $24 billion last year.”
Additional context:
“As corporate treasuries and Bitcoin ETFs become a larger part of bitcoin ownership, we expect bitcoin ownership to get more sticky. Thus, longer bitcoin hovers around the sub-$100K mark, bitcoin would change hands from traders/sellers to long duration holders such as MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETF holders.”
Prediction 3
“The analysts also predict the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will attract net inflows exceeding $70 billion — double the approximate $35 billion generated in 2024 — led by accelerated institutional adoption.”
Prediction 4
“Rounding out the Bitcoin side of things, the analysts suggested miners will ‘have to’ continue shifting capacity to AI for value creation this year.”
Additional context:
“There was a significant divergence in performance between AI diversifiers and ‘pure-play’ Bitcoin miners in 2024. AI changes the Bitcoin mining business model to make it more sustainable and less cyclical, bringing in a wider institutional investor base.”
Prediction 5
“They also expect AI and crypto convergence will foster innovation through decentralized AI-focused blockchains, AI-integrated wallets and tokenized AI agents.”
Additional context:
“Key developments include decentralized AI-focused blockchains for compute, storage and inference, as well as “proof of human” authentication services.”
Prediction 6
“Bernstein anticipates ‘unprecedented’ regulatory tailwinds for the industry this year with the incoming pro-crypto administration, including potential legislation on stablecoins.”
Prediction 7
“Such legislation could drive substantial growth in the global stablecoin market, with the analysts predicting it will cross $500 billion in 2025.”
Additional context:
“A stablecoin bill would be seen as priority. Stablecoins further strengthen the U.S. dollar by buying treasuries and distributing digital dollars online.”
Prediction 8
“They also anticipate banks and asset managers will begin launching new crypto offerings.”
Prediction 9
“Additionally, the analysts expect a more pro-crypto SEC to withdraw or settle existing cases with crypto companies, more crypto firm IPOs and equity market tokenization this year.”
Additional context:
“They also anticipate crypto exchanges and platforms like Robinhood to enable equity market tokenization, leading to liquid 24/7 equity market trading on blockchain technology, and banks and asset managers to launch more crypto-related products.”
Prediction 10
“Finally, Ethereum is poised to become the next ‘institutional darling’ in 2025, despite underperformance last year, Chhugani said, driven by traditional investors seeking intrinsic value.”
Additional context:
“With 28% of ether staked, 3% absorbed by the ETFs and 7.5% locked in smart contracts, Ethereum’s limited supply and utility as a fee payment and collateral asset across Layer 1 and Layer 2 chains drives its appeal to traditional investors seeking intrinsic value, according to the analysts.”
I hosted Matt Hougan from Bitwise on my show yesterday morning to get his perspective on Bernstein’s predictions. Here’s what he had to say:
“If you dig into their predictions, there are two that underpin them. One is that they expect ETF inflows to go to $70 billion from $35 billion, and two is that they expect corporations to buy $50 billion in Bitcoin, not $25 billion, which they did last year. They expect both of those trends to double. I agree with both of those sub-predictions, and if those things happen, it’s hard to see the price not getting to $200,000. In fact, $200,000 may be on the pessimistic side. I think it could go higher if we see both of those things.”
Following this insightful sidebar, the consensus among the panel was clear: Bernstein’s 2025 predictions are essentially an extension of their Black Book, titled “From Coin to Compute: The Bitcoin Investing Guide.”
Call me optimistic, overly bullish, or even delusional, but Bernstein’s approach stands out as the most accurate of all the predictions I’ve analyzed. While others err on the side of caution with conservative targets, Bernstein calls it as they see it—and I can respect that.
Here’s something else to consider: crypto price predictions often feel like they’re a cycle ahead of reality. Back in 2017, people expected Bitcoin to go parabolic and smash through $20,000, but it wasn’t until 2021 that those predictions materialized. Similarly, in 2021, the chatter was all about Bitcoin reaching $200,000, yet it topped out at $69,000. Fast-forward to now, and the $200,000 target feels not only reasonable but perhaps overdue.
Sure, Bitcoin could go even higher if everything aligns perfectly. But for now, $200,000 feels like a grounded and achievable target for this cycle, given the trends we’re observing.
And about that recent market dip—classic, right? Just as I mentioned my expectation for strength heading into the inauguration, the exact opposite happens. But here’s the thing: it only takes one good day to pull Bitcoin back to its prior levels. If that doesn’t happen, tempered expectations soften the blow. And if the good news does come, this pullback sets the stage for a slingshot higher.
Short-term price action? A distraction. Bernstein’s advice sums it up perfectly:
“Buy everything you can… Don’t fight this—add crypto exposure ASAP.”
This dip? It doesn’t bother me. If anything, it’s an opportunity—a chance to snag Bitcoin at a discount and an even better deal on alts. Enjoy the markdowns while they last—2025 is still our year.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin's daily chart is showing continued bearish momentum after rejecting from the $106,099 resistance level and losing the critical $99,860 support. The price has now dropped below the 50-day moving average, which sits around $97,700, flipping this level into potential resistance. This breakdown suggests that the short-term trend has shifted bearish.
The increasing sell volume accompanying the breakdown underscores growing bearish pressure, while the RSI continues to slide downward, indicating weakening bullish strength. Despite this, the RSI has not yet reached oversold levels, leaving room for further downside.
Key support now lies in the $88,800-$90,600 zone, which has acted as a demand area in the past. If Bitcoin fails to hold this range, further downside toward lower support levels could materialize. To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim both the $97,700 50-day moving average and the $99,860 resistance. Until then, the market remains tilted toward caution, with downside risks still in play.
Legacy Markets
Markets steadied on Wednesday as traders reassessed inflation risks and their impact on equities and bonds. US equity futures pointed to recovery after the Nasdaq 100 experienced its worst day of the year on Tuesday, driven by a tech selloff. Nvidia gained 1.8% in premarket trading after a sharp drop the previous day. Treasuries remained steady across the curve, though inflation concerns and uncertainty surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s policies kept investors cautious.
Higher Treasury yields, nearing 5%, pose challenges for risk assets, with analysts emphasizing that markets can tolerate elevated yields if driven by growth rather than inflation. Citigroup and Amundi both noted that a return to 5% yields would offer attractive opportunities for bond investors. Meanwhile, UK 30-year inflation-linked bond yields rose to 2% for the first time since 2022, reflecting mounting borrowing costs as gilt yields reach multi-year highs.
Despite the turbulence, global corporate bond issuance has reached $111 billion this year, with spreads remaining tight post-financial crisis. Traders expect ongoing volatility as inflation, tariffs, Trump’s policies, and monetary adjustments create uncertainty in the weeks ahead.
Key events this week:
US ADP employment, Fed minutes, consumer credit, Wednesday
Fed’s Christopher Waller speaks, Wednesday
China CPI, PPI, Thursday
Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
US state funeral and national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter is a federal holiday, Thursday
Fed’s Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin, Jeff Schmid and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
Japan household spending, leading index, Friday
US jobs report, consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 5:59 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0319
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2447
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 158.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $95,951.45
Ether was little changed at $3,362.17
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.68%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.53%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.71%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $74.61 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,653.42 an ounce
MicroStrategy’s Year In Review
What a year for MicroStrategy—especially impressive given that Bitcoin spent much of 2024 ranging sideways or trending downward. The company made nineteen separate Bitcoin purchases throughout the year, with the largest buying sprees occurring after significant Bitcoin gains.
To clear up any confusion from earlier, MicroStrategy purchased 258,320 BTC in 2024—an average of about 707.7 BTC per day. However, its total Bitcoin holdings increased by 140,630 BTC through yield, reflecting growth not only from purchases but also from price appreciation and leveraging equity capital to acquire more Bitcoin. This yield—representing a 74.3% BTC growth rate for the year—demonstrates Bitcoin's compounding power and its role as a key driver of shareholder value creation for MicroStrategy.
If Saylor keeps up this pace of acquiring 707.7 BTC per day, MicroStrategy could accumulate approximately 702,801 BTC by the end of 2025. That said, this estimate doesn’t account for potential buying acceleration during a bull market. Factoring that in, my base case is that the company reaches around 700,000 BTC, with a bull case pushing well past 800,000 BTC by the end of the year.
Unless something truly unexpected derails this trajectory, I find it hard to see how Saylor doesn’t hit the 1 million BTC mark within five years.
Good Economic Data Brings Down Risk Assets
Risk assets kicked off the week with a strong start on Monday, only to see those gains evaporate on Tuesday as upbeat economic data sparked uncertainty about the pace of monetary easing and drove bond yields higher. It’s a classic paradox: weaker economic data often signals more rate cuts, which can pump risk assets. But good economic news? That sends risk assets tumbling. Go figure. Whoever said investing was straightforward clearly hasn’t spent enough time in these markets.
That said, the selloff isn’t entirely due to economic data. Crypto markets took an outsized hit, likely tied to leverage being flushed out. It’s a reminder that we rarely know the full story behind market moves. There could also be some profit-taking by latecomers returning from vacation as the new year gets underway.
Here’s the silver lining: nothing has fundamentally changed. These kinds of dips, often driven by sentiment and positioning rather than macro shifts, are typically the easiest to recover from. Minimal panic required.
Ripple Teams Up With Chainlink
There’s one thing crypto investors love more than the tribalism of their investments: official partnerships. As of January 7th, Ripple has teamed up with Chainlink to boost the adoption and utility of its Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin in DeFi applications. This collaboration will deliver tamper-proof price feeds for RLUSD on Ethereum and the XRP Ledger, enabling cost-effective transactions while minimizing the risks of manipulation and downtime.
This isn’t just a win for Ripple and Chainlink—Ethereum plays a role as it supports RLUSD, and Coinbase gets a nod too, given Chainlink’s integration with Project Diamond, a digital asset platform founded by the exchange.
Colin Cunningham of Chainlink Labs summed it up well, saying projects like Ripple have “stood the test of time and weathered an unbelievable amount of change over the ups and downs of the crypto markets over the years.” He added, “The launch of RLUSD is continued affirmation of the stablecoin and tokenized asset sectors continuing to lead the blockchain industry forward.”
Looking ahead, one of my predictions for 2025 is the continuation of partnerships and collaborations among the biggest companies and blockchains. The days of siloed operations are fading—interoperability is the future.
Polymarket Updates
There are several markets on Polymarket that I’m watching closely so far this year, and I’ve highlighted them below.
Pierre Poilievre would be the best outcome for Canada in terms of crypto policy, regulation, and overall outlook—a significant improvement compared to where Trudeau left the country.
Other similar categories:
Ripple ETF is at 71% approval odds
Litecoin ETF is at 55% approval odds
Cardano ETF is at 33% approval odds
Similar to Circle, the Kraken IPO is at 59% approval.
Bitcoin To Hit $200K, Analysts Forecast Massive Growth For All Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin and crypto are predicted to experience massive growth this year. I am joined by Matt Hougan, the CIO of Bitwise, Andrew Parish, and Tillman Holloway, of Arch Public to discuss this and more.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.