The Wolf Den #1111 - I’m A Little 'Stitious'
How about you?
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In This Issue:
I’m A Little ‘Stitious’
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Canada’s Political Landscape Faces A Seismic Shift
Vivek Ramaswamy Is Following Saylor’s Playbook
Pump.fun Is Behind Solana’s Epic Run
Gemini Resolves Its Lawsuit With The CFTC
Bitcoin Will Explode In The Next 2 Weeks: Here Is Why! | Macro Monday
I’m A Little ‘Stitious’
One of my all-time favorite quotes from the Office:
“Man, what a day, huh? Computer crashes with the porn, and then Meredith with the accident. Sprinkles, God. This office is cursed, and we need to do something about it. That’s why I’m taking responsibility, and it’s up to me to get rid of the curse that hit Meredith with my car. I’m not superstitious, but I am a little stitious.”
Michael’s antics are undeniably over the top. His claim that he’s not superstitious, just “stitious,” is laughable—but also relatable. Take blackjack as a simple example: players holding a 16 against the dealer’s 10 know they should hit. It’s common knowledge, backed by math. Yet many won’t, purely out of superstition. The 16 feels “close enough” to 21, and the thought of drawing a bad card feels riskier than taking the mathematically optimal move. Fear of immediate failure overrides logic.
This kind of irrational behavior isn’t limited to the blackjack table. It shows up in everyday life, where feelings and habits trump reason. Consider these examples:
Taking a longer, less efficient route to work just because it’s familiar.
Buying something you don’t need because there’s a sale sign.
Wearing your “lucky” Bitcoin socks every Monday, hoping they influence the market.
Delaying tough business decisions because the timing doesn’t “feel” right.
Avoiding activities or places due to past injuries, even when fully healed.
We’ve all fallen victim to such thinking—it’s part of being human. Most of the time, it’s harmless. If your bright orange Bitcoin socks bring good vibes, go ahead and wear them. The problem arises when irrational beliefs start driving important decisions. That’s when superstition leads to poor choices that can hold us back.
In the world of investing, this behavior is pervasive. Traders convince themselves that trends must reverse after moving in one direction for too long, make impulsive decisions based on personal preferences or “hot tips,” or avoid due diligence. Some even rely on astrology or numerology to guide investments.
Let’s take a hypothetical investor—Michael—as an example. Michael likes to think he’s practical, but his actions tell a different story. He invests more when Republicans are in office, believing their policies always benefit the economy. He avoids buying during market dips, fearing further losses, and waits until the New Year to start fresh with new investments. Calm market days make him nervous, so he stays on the sidelines, expecting a downturn.
In crypto, Michael clings to altcoins that have dropped 80–90%, assuming they can’t fall further. He buys Bitcoin near round numbers, believing they’re strong support levels, and skips altcoins priced under $1 entirely. He prefers AI coins on Base and meme coins on Solana, following the crowd’s lead. Michael also waits for the Fear and Greed Index to signal “greed” before adding Bitcoin and insists on owning whole, round numbers of coins. Fridays? Off-limits for buying due to perceived weekend risks.
Michael’s approach to security is equally shaky. He keeps his assets on exchanges, reasoning, “If everyone else does it, it must be fine.” He avoids connecting wallets to lesser-known platforms but blindly trusts bigger names. He skips double-checking wallet addresses, assuming saved ones are error-proof.
When it comes to rebalancing, Michael is adamant: he doesn’t do it. Selling winners to buy underperformers feels like “meddling with fate,” so he lets his portfolio ride unchecked, ignoring risk and allocation imbalances.
Does any of this sound familiar? While Michael might stumble into occasional success, much of his strategy is rooted in superstition, arbitrary rules, and following the herd. His short-term wins are often the result of market randomness, not sound decision-making.
And here’s the thing—when the next black swan event hits, Michael will be high on the list of likely victims. I’ve been there myself (hello, Voyager), so I know the pain. The same blind spots that sometimes lead to wins can also set him up for catastrophic losses.
Michael’s decisions lack substance. They’re driven by feelings, anecdotes, and the illusion of safety. While his strategy isn’t reckless—he avoids leverage and sticks to Bitcoin—it’s not logical either. He’s like the blackjack player who consistently makes suboptimal plays, leaving chips on the table and paying a tax to the casino.
In crypto, where stakes are higher, these habits are amplified. The edge Michael gives away isn’t just 1–2%—it compounds, deepening losses in bear markets and capping gains in bull runs. Over time, his superstitions and irrational rules erode his potential returns.
When it comes to finances, superstition has no place. Wear your lucky socks for sports, entertainment, or daily routines—but when it’s time to plan your financial future, leave irrational beliefs at the door. Logic, knowledge, and sound strategies are the real keys to success.
Anyways, it’s good to be back. My holiday break seems to have ended at just the right time—Bitcoin is back above $100,000, and I’m hitting my stride. 2025 is already shaping up to be an exciting year.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a continued struggle to reclaim the key resistance at $106,099, with price rejecting from this level after a strong push upward. However, the structure remains bullish as Bitcoin has successfully flipped the $99,860 level into support, aligning with the 50-day moving average, which sits around $97,600. Holding above these levels keeps the medium-term uptrend intact. Volume during the recent rejection was moderate, suggesting that selling pressure hasn’t intensified significantly, while the RSI remains neutral, indicating no major overbought conditions. For bulls, reclaiming $106,099 remains the next critical milestone to unlock higher targets and potentially retest the cycle highs. On the downside, losing support at $99,860 and the 50-day SMA could trigger a retest of the $88,000-$90,000 demand zone. For now, Bitcoin’s consolidation above key support keeps the bullish bias alive.
Legacy Markets
The dollar extended its decline for a third consecutive day on Tuesday, losing 0.2% amid uncertainty over President-elect Donald Trump’s policy directions. This follows Monday's 0.6% drop after Trump denied scaling back his tariff plans. US Treasuries remained steady, while US stock futures saw little movement. Nvidia rose 1.9% premarket following CEO Jensen Huang's unveiling of new chips and a collaboration with Uber on autonomous driving technology. The greenback, which had gained 7% over three months, remains on a rising trend, supported by a resilient US economy, according to analysts.
In Europe, equities climbed as the Stoxx 600 gained 0.2% despite regional inflation ticking up to 2.4% in December, driven by energy costs. Markets maintained expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts, with swaps indicating over 100 basis points of easing by year-end. Analysts suggest European equities could benefit from a nascent recovery paired with mild inflation.
Elsewhere, Japan’s yen edged up after warnings about excessive currency movements, while Canada’s dollar strengthened following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal Party leader. In the UK, long-term borrowing costs surged to their highest since 1998, with 30-year gilt yields rising to 5.22% amid heavy bond issuance. Trading in currency options markets surged on Monday, reflecting heightened political uncertainty and volatility.
Key events this week:
US job openings, trade, ISM services, Tuesday
Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Tuesday
Eurozone PPI, consumer confidence, Wednesday
US ADP employment, Fed minutes, consumer credit, Wednesday
Fed’s Christopher Waller speaks, Wednesday
China CPI, PPI, Thursday
Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
US state funeral and national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter is a federal holiday, Thursday
Fed’s Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin, Jeff Schmid and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
Japan household spending, leading index, Friday
US jobs report, consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:48 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%
The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0411
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2544
The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.72 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $100,580.76
Ether fell 1% to $3,631.67
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.63%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.46%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.65%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $73.93 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,647.56 an ounce
Canada’s Political Landscape Faces A Seismic Shift
Rumors about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation have been confirmed after nine years in office, creating an opportunity for a new leader—potentially one with a pro-Bitcoin stance—to take the helm before the upcoming election. Among the frontrunners is Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative Party leadership candidate and a vocal advocate for Bitcoin.
For those unfamiliar, Trudeau’s tenure included several actions that were hostile to Bitcoin. During the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests, his government invoked the Emergencies Act to freeze bank accounts and target Bitcoin wallets, sparking widespread criticism for its assault on financial freedom. Trudeau also imposed strict regulations on cryptocurrency exchanges, including mandatory registration, trading caps, and enforcement actions against platforms like Binance, which reinforced the perception of a crackdown. Additionally, he frequently spread FUD about Bitcoin, citing environmental concerns and its potential misuse.
This shakeup could signal a shift toward a more pro-crypto Canada, potentially aligning with recent developments in the U.S. There was a time when Canada led the way on crypto adoption, as seen with the approval of the Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC), the world’s first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Below, I’ve included examples of Poilievre’s pro-crypto and Bitcoin statements.
Vivek Ramaswamy Is Following Saylor’s Playbook
Strive Asset Management, co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy—one of the first pro-Bitcoin presidential candidates in the U.S.—has filed with the SEC for a Bitcoin Bond ETF. This move comes as anticipation builds around Trump’s return to the White House and new SEC leadership.
The proposed ETF would enable traditional finance institutions to gain exposure to Bitcoin through company-issued bonds, derivatives, swaps, and options tied to Bitcoin-focused firms. If approved, it will trade on the NYSE, with over 80% of its exposure allocated to Bitcoin-related assets and income distributed weekly.
Strive positions Bitcoin as a critical tool for managing risks such as inflation, geopolitical instability, and the fiat debt crisis. By bridging digital assets with traditional investment frameworks, the ETF aims to drive institutional adoption and strengthen Bitcoin’s role in the broader financial ecosystem.
From the SEC Prospectus:
“The Fund is an actively managed ETF that invests its assets directly and indirectly through derivative instruments, including swaps and options, to get exposure to convertible securities issued by MicroStrategy Incorporated (“MicroStrategy”) or other companies that Strive Asset Management, LLC, the Fund’s investment sub-adviser (the “Sub-Adviser”), expects will invest all or a significant portion of the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin (collectively, “Bitcoin Bonds”). The Sub-Adviser will determine the allocation of the Fund’s assets across direct holdings in Bitcoin Bonds and derivative instruments based on the Sub-Adviser’s assessment of the ability of such investments to produce similar returns and the costs associated with such instruments, among other factors. Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the notional exposure of the Fund (through securities and financial instruments) will be to Bitcoin Bonds (the “80% Policy”).”
Pump.fun Is Behind Solana’s Epic Run
Here’s a crazy stat: Token launchpad Pump.fun has driven roughly 70% of all transactions on the Solana network over the past two days, hitting its highest activity since disabling its controversial streaming feature in November.
As the hub for Solana’s meme coin activity, Pump.fun has been responsible for over 69% of tokens created on the network, with more than 45,000 tokens launched in just 24 hours—leaving competitors like Moonshot and PinkMoon far behind. Despite only 1.21% of its tokens being listed on decentralized exchanges, Pump.fun has dominated Solana DEX activity, accounting for 56.2% of all transactions this month.
Here’s the key takeaway: Of the 5 million coins created on Pump.fun, fewer than 500 have reached a $1 million market cap—giving each token less than a 0.01% chance of making it big.
Gemini Resolves Its Lawsuit With The CFTC
The CFTC and Gemini Trust Company have proposed a settlement to resolve a civil case stemming from allegations that Gemini provided false or misleading statements during its 2017 effort to offer Bitcoin futures contracts.
Under the proposed terms, Gemini would pay a $5 million penalty, admit it should have recognized the misleading nature of its statements, and commit to avoiding similar conduct in the future. The case focused on undisclosed fee arrangements that favored certain market participants, designed to boost trading activity but not disclosed to the public.
Bitcoin Will Explode In The Next 2 Weeks: Here Is Why! | Macro Monday
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.