The Wolf Den #1092 - There Is A Beast Inside Of You
FOMO
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In This Issue:
There Is A Beast Inside Of You
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Please Ignore These Videos
Russia Recognizes Crypto As Property
ETH ETFs Make History
Ethereum TVL Hits Yearly High
There Is A Beast Inside Of You
This newsletter idea sparked from a recent interview my Crypto Town Hall co-host, Mario Nawfal, had with the ever-insightful Raoul Pal. During their chat, Raoul touched on the concept of taming the beast within—better known as FOMO—and it struck me as the perfect topic to explore further here. Let’s dive in; I think you’ll find it fascinating!
I talk about FOMO constantly. Let’s be honest—it’s an overdone topic. Everyone treats it like the first commandment of crypto: Thou shalt not chase green candles. Don’t buy the meme coin your buddy won’t shut up about. Don’t freak out over pumps you missed. Don’t blindly trust influencers. And don’t throw out your carefully laid plans just because something shinier catches your eye.
We all have our own version of the FOMO rulebook rattling around in our heads. I’m not here to rehash those tired lessons—I know you already know what not to do. The real challenge isn’t memorizing the rules; it’s actually following them.
So, today, instead of lecturing you on dos and don’ts, let’s explore a fictional tale of what happens when you let FOMO’s beast run wild. Sure, I’ll exaggerate, but I’m willing to bet most of you have made at least one—or several—of these mistakes. And if you’re being honest, you might be on the verge of making them again—or worse, committing them right now without realizing it.
This one’s for you. Let’s meet Bill.
Bill first heard about crypto in 2017 but hesitated, missing both the highs and the lows of the following year. By 2021, he watched Bitcoin skyrocket into the $60,000 range and patted himself on the back for avoiding what he deemed mania, especially after the collapses of FTX, Celsius, and Voyager.
But as 2024 dawned and market sentiment improved, Bill felt the itch. He spent more time scrolling X (formerly Twitter), chasing the latest buzz. Podcasts? Newsletters? Research? Nope. Bill’s entire perspective came from a handful of influencers whose posts fit neatly into 280 characters.
The market’s rise in 2024 reignited a FOMO he couldn’t shake. When Bitcoin broke its all-time high in March, Bill didn’t buy BTC. Instead, he became obsessed with making up for lost time. He wanted revenge on the cycles he missed—and what better way than chasing altcoins?
Bill scooped up a grab bag of altcoins, targeting anything he thought had “hit bottom.” His logic? What’s down can’t go down further, right? Wrong. Bill overlooked the brutal reality that a coin down 90% can drop another 90% and still look “flat” on a chart.
Bitcoin chopped sideways for months, testing Bill’s patience. Instead of holding strong, he chased every shiny new altcoin. Fees piled up from constant swapping. Capital gains taxes loomed over his short-term wins. And then came the memes. Bill, seeing everyone else profit, convinced himself meme coins were his golden ticket. If they could make money, how hard could it be?
Bill’s journey became a rollercoaster of triumphs and disasters. He doubled his stack one day, wiped it out the next. At one point, he tripled his portfolio—but instead of taking profits, he held out for a mythical 10x. Fueled by arrogance, he believed his next trade would secure a life-changing win.
From here, Bill’s story could split in two, but both paths lead to the same bitter end.
In one version, he catches a lucky break: the right meme coin, the right community, the right timing. Bill’s portfolio explodes, and his confidence skyrockets—until his success breeds recklessness. Convinced he’s invincible, he doubles down on riskier plays. When the market turns, his gains evaporate, leaving him scrambling to salvage what’s left.
In the other version, Bill suffers a series of small losses that snowball into desperation. He chases comeback trades, each riskier than the last, until his capital is drained. Financial ruin creeps in, not with a bang but with a thousand tiny cuts. Emotionally exhausted and financially wrecked, Bill realizes too late how much he’s lost.
For the sake of the story, let’s assume Bill claws back some of his original stack. Determined to do better, he vows to slow down and focus on “quality” altcoins. But here’s the problem: Bill hasn’t truly learned. He’s still chasing hype, blindly following influencers, and buying coins based on tweets, not research.
Bill thinks he’s evolved, but he’s still playing the same game with a shinier strategy. He’s neglected the basics—reading white papers, understanding tokenomics, or seeking real insights. Instead, he’s handed his financial future to anonymous influencers and shady paid groups.
In a bull market, Bill might do okay. Everything rises with the tide, after all. But when everyone else’s portfolios soar 30%, and his are up just 10%, the beast inside stirs again. He feels like he’s falling behind—even while making money.
Eventually, Bill capitulates. He sells everything for Bitcoin, thinking it’s the “smart” move. But without the conviction to hold, he FOMO sells at the first dip. Once again, the beast inside him wins.
Every investor has a beast within—a force that can either drive them to ruin or, if mastered, guide them to lasting success. It’s the difference between being a slave to emotion and a disciplined investor.
But here’s the catch: Bill never understood his beast. He slowed down, sure, but he never tamed it. Instead, he let it lead him to a slower demise. Mastering crypto requires two things: rejecting instant gratification and understanding the fire you’re playing with. Neither can replace the other, and the market has little patience for slow learners.
So here’s my challenge to you: How much of yourself do you see in Bill? Be brutally honest. Do you understand the assets you own? Are you letting FOMO steer your decisions?
The beast inside you can only be defeated by your choices. Master it, or it will master you. The decision is yours.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is ranging below $100K, which has generally been good for altcoins until today. In past cycles, bloody Mondays in crypto were so common they practically became a meme. I still think we could use a bigger reset here, but nothing on the chart says there is a major issue, except the bearish divergence that has already been replaced with hidden bullish divergence.
Nothing would surprise me here - a candle to 100K or to the high 80s. I just want stability so that altcoins can keep moving.
Legacy Markets
US stock futures edged lower, signaling a 0.2% dip after the S&P 500’s record close on Friday, as the dollar strengthened amid escalating political turmoil in France. Stellantis shares plunged over 8% following CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation after a board dispute. The euro weakened 0.6%, with French government bonds and the CAC 40 stock index declining as France’s far-right party threatened to topple the government over budgetary issues. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries softened as traders awaited labor market data and weighed hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan. The dollar, bolstered by President-elect Trump’s remarks opposing a BRICS currency, continued its upward trend despite its historical December weakness due to year-end portfolio adjustments. Global markets reflected mixed sentiments: French banking stocks suffered, while Asian stocks rose on signs of China’s economic stabilization, with oil prices climbing and gold retreating amidst the dollar's strength. This week’s key focus includes Fed Chair Powell’s address and U.S. jobs data.
Key events this week:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Monday
UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Monday
FT Global Banking Summit in London through Dec. 4, Tuesday; BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will be a panelist
China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
ECB President Christine Lagarde appears before European Parliament committees, Wednesday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Wednesday
OECD publishes economic outlook, Wednesday
Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
Germany factory orders, Thursday
OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting, Thursday
India rate decision, Friday
Eurozone GDP, Friday
US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 5:56 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0522
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2707
The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 150.21 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 3% to $94,929.57
Ether fell 3.5% to $3,577.87
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.21%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.05%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.24%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $68.63 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,635.36 an ounce
Please Ignore These Videos
PSA: Avoid these types of videos at all costs. It doesn’t matter who’s producing them or what justification they give—they’re misleading and tarnish the reputation of the entire space. If your family members are sharing these, do them a favor and explain why they’re flawed.
There’s no need to get tangled in debates about the coin’s technology, fundamentals, or nuanced arguments. Just keep it simple:
Show them the max supply (for XRP, that’s 100 billion).
Multiply it by the predicted price (let’s say $10,000).
Explain that max supply × price = total market cap, which in this case equals one quadrillion.
To put that in perspective, one quadrillion is 1,000 times larger than one trillion. This basic math alone shows how absurd these claims are.
In other news, XRP has flipped Solana—an outcome probably nobody saw coming, aside from the infamous $589 conspiracy theorists. With this shift, brace yourself for a tidal wave of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) aimed not just at Solana, but likely Ethereum as well. The narratives will target anything they can: fees, token unlocks, user experience, or even the so-called “meme exodus.”
But here’s the twist: if the FUD piles on, it could actually become a catalyst for a major price recovery. Ironically, the negativity itself often creates the conditions for a dramatic bounce. I’ll be watching closely for Solana to rebound in the face of it all.
One final note: This market plays by its own rules. Just as Ethereum has done nothing wrong, I believe the same is true for Solana. The market’s dynamics don’t care about our expectations—and that’s exactly why it’s so fascinating.
Russia Recognizes Crypto As Property
Just last week, I dedicated an entire intro to the China story, where a Shanghai court declared that owning cryptocurrencies is not illegal in China and acknowledged digital assets as having “property attributes” under Chinese law. While some dismissed it as murky and lacking full clarity, I saw it as a major leap forward for anyone who’s been following China’s cautious dance with crypto over the past few years.
Now, the plot thickens as Russia joins the stage, taking bold steps to integrate digital currencies into its economy. President Vladimir Putin has signed a groundbreaking law recognizing digital currencies as property in foreign trade settlements under an experimental legal regime (ELR). The law goes further by exempting crypto transactions and mining from value-added tax (VAT), categorizing mining income as “income in kind” and taxing it at market value. Crypto trading income falls under a two-tier tax system, with rates of 13% and 15%, while corporate profits from mining will face a 25% tax starting in 2025.
Of course, this isn’t a tax-free paradise. The law denies crypto activities access to favorable tax regimes, mandates mining operators to report client usage to tax authorities, and imposes penalties for non-compliance. Effective immediately, this law builds on Putin’s earlier move to regulate large-scale crypto mining through registered entities.
There are two ways to interpret this news: the wrong way and the right way. The wrong take is seeing it as bad news simply because Russia is rolling out a new tax system. The right take? Russia is treating the asset class seriously—establishing regulation, laying the groundwork for clarity, and positioning itself as a player in the crypto economy.
The game theory of nation-state adoption is just beginning, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Buckle up.
ETH ETFs Make History
For the first time ever, Ethereum ETF inflows outpaced Bitcoin ETF inflows in a single day—ETH ETFs raked in a combined $332 million, edging out BTC ETFs at $320 million. Exciting? Absolutely. But is it groundbreaking? Not really—and that’s actually a good thing. Let me explain.
As the crypto market matures, days like this will become more common. Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in inflows won’t be shocking; it’ll just be part of the evolving narrative. Sure, Bitcoin is over 4x larger and typically dominates in bull runs, so ETH outperforming BTC won’t happen often. But these two giants don’t need to move in lockstep. In fact, they shouldn’t.
There will be days when Ethereum triples Bitcoin’s inflows and days when Bitcoin sees outflows while Ethereum thrives. That’s what maturity in an asset class looks like—distinct movements fueled by unique market dynamics.
For ETH investors, this is a nice milestone, but it’s only the beginning. As these markets evolve, moments like this will become routine. The best part? The most exciting days are still ahead. Get ready for the ride.
Ethereum TVL Hits Yearly High
Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) has surged past its May highs and is now setting its sights on the all-time high from late 2021, just north of $100 billion. Even if ETH’s price stays steady, TVL should keep climbing as more newcomers dive into DeFi. Of course, the real rocket fuel for TVL is ETH’s price itself. With ETH currently around $3,700, it only needs a 32% boost to hit its all-time high of $4,878.
Meanwhile, in Bitcoin news, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs now hold 5% of the total Bitcoin supply—a pretty remarkable milestone. But let’s keep it in perspective: this is just the beginning. Over the next five to ten years, I’m convinced we’re still in the early chapters of Bitcoin’s story. Stay tuned—it’s going to be a long, exciting ride.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.