The Wolf Den #1089 - Should You Sell?
That is entirely up to you.
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In This Issue:
Should You Sell?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
I Disagree With This
Spot ETH ETFs Are Still Struggling
Trump Selects Scott Bessent As Treasury Secretary
The Blockchain Association Sent This Letter
Tether Aligns With The U.S Government
Bitcoin Skyrockets, Gensler Quits: The Start Of The Crypto Revolution | Caitlin Long
Should You Sell?
While prepping today’s topic, I stumbled upon a blog post by a CFA explaining his reasons for “selling some Bitcoin.” It caught my attention, and I couldn’t resist diving in. I’ll be sharing a few excerpts from his article and adding my own take on his decision-making process. The goal? To give you some valuable insights that might help you along your own journey. So, without further ado, let’s jump right in!
I’ve intentionally left out the author’s name to respect his privacy. Full credit goes to him for his work—if you’re curious, you can click the image above to check out his blog or easily find it online. Another reason I’ve chosen to obscure his name is to protect him from the inevitable wrath of the internet mob. Trust me, I know all too well what it feels like to be criticized for selling Bitcoin.
Here’s what we know so far: the original poster (OP) bought Bitcoin ages ago and works in traditional finance—a notoriously skeptical space when it comes to embracing what this industry offers. Honestly, kudos to him for taking that leap and putting skin in the game!
He recognized his FOMO early on and took a responsible approach by dollar-cost averaging—steadily buying at various tops, bottoms, and everything in between. Smart move, balancing the hype with a long-term strategy!
The OP started with a strong mindset: “buy-and-hold forever.” — points scored.
But then came statements like, “There’s no good way to value it” and “trillions of dollars out of thin air.” — points lost.
While it’s true there isn’t a perfect way to value Bitcoin, I’d argue there are plenty of solid frameworks if you’re willing to dig deeper. Traditional models from economists and the TradFi world? Let’s face it—they don’t quite cut it in this space.
Has the OP considered the following? 👇
Doing your homework always pays off.
Personally, I measure Bitcoin against gold as my north star—it’s a straightforward and reliable comparison that helps keep things in perspective. The OP, however, still seems to have lingering doubts about Bitcoin, as seen in his “thin air” comment. I get it—thinking like that can chip away at your conviction, and that kind of doubt often leads to selling sooner than you probably should.
Rebalancing? Absolutely nothing wrong with it—in fact, it’s both responsible and essential for good risk management. Whether the OP holds $1,500 or $15 million in BTC, rebalancing is always a smart move to keep your portfolio in check.
That said, I think the OP is making a big mistake by selling at this point in the cycle. Worse, if he never buys back, he could be missing out on even greater long-term opportunities. Ultimately, it’s his choice, and while rebalancing is a valid strategy, there’s a huge difference between selling everything and selling half. Ironically, I’d approve of selling everything more than selling just half—it’s a clearer, more decisive move!
This point ties closely to the one above. The OP chose to rebalance because the stakes had grown higher, and it became a necessity for him. Credit where it’s due—he recognized the potential emotional and financial pain he’d face if there were a massive crash. That kind of self-awareness deserves a nod.
The reasoning here is solid, no doubt about that—but it doesn’t change the fact that the timing feels off. On the bright side, the OP has done their homework and understands that Bitcoin moves in cycles. That’s a good start! Hopefully, with time, they’ll zoom out and grasp the bigger picture: BTC > Gold and the inevitability of Bitcoin eventually reaching $1 million. 🚀
This is hands down the OP’s strongest reason for selling—no sarcasm whatsoever. He’s demonstrated a commendable level of self-awareness and mastery over his emotions. By anticipating how various real-world outcomes could impact his mindset, he’s taken a proactive approach to minimize regret and optimize for peace of mind. Big points earned for that!
To summarize: The OP plans to buy more if there’s a market correction, acknowledges the possibility of being wrong, believes Bitcoin is indestructible, and—most importantly—is content with his decision. Honestly, I respect that. There’s no issue with the OP selling, and I commend him for engaging in this journey while managing the internal tug-of-war with his “traditional finance brain.”
For those of you who know me (and most of you share this sentiment), you know I’m a true believer. While I don’t think the OP is an idiot (his words, not mine), I do think he’s leaving money on the table. Especially when you consider how much this industry has evolved—and continues to evolve—in remarkable ways over just the past six months.
Here’s my take: the root cause of the OP’s decision—and really, why anyone might sell—is the tension between conviction and price volatility. Volatility, whether up or down, eats away at your conviction. Sure, under the right conditions, it can strengthen it, but at a certain point, it starts to erode your resolve. I know plenty of die-hard Bitcoiners who claim they’ll hold forever but would part with their stack at $500k, $750k, or $1M.
The moment your perception of Bitcoin’s value shakes your conviction, you start questioning whether it makes sense to hold—and inevitably, you find reasons to sell. On the flip side, someone with unshakable conviction, like Michael Saylor, doesn’t flinch. To Saylor, Bitcoin is the most valuable asset on Earth, and price isn’t even part of the equation when it comes to selling.
For our OP, he had a threshold in his mind. And unless he found a way to strengthen his conviction, his Bitcoin position was destined to shrink. Credit to him for sticking to his plan, having the guts to execute it, and taking profit on what was likely a long-term oversized position. He won.
There’s no reason to judge anyone for taking profits. If anything, we can learn from their thought process and use it to understand the psychology of those who aren’t true believers or who have less conviction. We’re now at a stage where fair-weather investors see the price as “too high.” Personally, I believe this cycle still has room to grow, and I’m more than happy to hold steady.
At the end of the day, everyone buys at the price and sells at the price they deserve. The OP earned and deserved his profits—credit to him. That said, let me leave you with this: always prioritize your family, health, well-being, and clearing bad debt before Bitcoin. Those are more than valid reasons to sell, and you should never feel an ounce of guilt for choosing them. Bitcoin is anti-fragile, but life isn’t.
Here’s to a great week ahead! And remember: pullbacks are healthy—don’t panic if we see one. Cheers!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The chart is showing significant bearish divergence with overbought RSI on most time frames. This is usually a clear signal of a local top, at the very least. No signal is 100%, but this tends to be solid. Will be looking for hidden bullish divergence to cancel the bear div.
The $74,000 previous all time high remains untested as support. No reason this has to be touched, but always worth keeping an eye on a previous ATH.
Most likely place for a pullback is the low 90s or high 80s.
Bitcoin has a tendency to make charts look silly, but the chart right now says it is a reasonable time for a breather and a pullback.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Bitcoin dominance has finally shown some signs of weakness, though it’s impossible to say if this is temporary. After reaching nearly 62%, it has dropped below 60% and currently sits at 58.85%. This decline hints at renewed interest and capital flowing into altcoins, which is typically seen at this stage in the cycle. If you recall the chart I shared last week, “alt seasons” began in December of both 2016 and 2020. Fingers crossed for altcoin traders and investors.
Legacy Markets
Markets responded positively to Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, with stocks and bonds rising as traders anticipate a more market-focused approach to fiscal policy. US equity futures gained at least 0.5%, while 10-year Treasury yields fell five basis points to 4.35%. The dollar retreated after an eight-week rally, and Bitcoin rebounded following a weekend dip. Investors expect Bessent to balance Trump’s tariff and tax cut plans with a focus on economic and market stability, easing concerns over inflationary risks that had driven recent selloffs in government bonds.
The S&P 500, already up 25% this year, continues to benefit from lower bond yields and healthy economic growth. Analysts project further gains, with RBC Capital Markets forecasting the index to reach 6,600 by the end of 2025. However, high bond yields remain a potential threat to stock valuations, with some strategists warning that unsustainable multiples could emerge if Treasury yields exceed 5%.
In corporate news, UniCredit SpA launched a €10 billion takeover bid for Banco BPM, sending Banco BPM shares up 8.5%. Meanwhile, Commerzbank AG, also in UniCredit’s acquisition sights, fell 7.2%, and UniCredit shares dropped 2.5%. Elsewhere, oil prices declined as reports surfaced of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, while gold gave back gains from last week’s sharp rally.
Looking ahead, traders are focusing on key economic data, including the Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes, consumer confidence, and personal consumption expenditures, to gauge the outlook for potential rate cuts in 2025. As markets await these signals, Bessent’s nomination has provided a welcome sense of direction and optimism for investors.
Key events this week:
BOE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli and rate-setter Swati Dhingra speak, Monday
ECB chief economist Philip Lane and Governing Council Member Gabriel Makhlouf speak, Monday
Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks, Tuesday
US FOMC minutes, new home sales, US Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes speaks, Tuesday
China industrial profits, Wednesday
New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
US PCE, initial jobless claims, GDP, durable goods, Wednesday
Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock speaks, Thursday
South Korea rate decision, Thursday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Thursday
Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
Eurozone CPI, Friday
Bank of England issues financial stability review and policy committee minutes, Friday
Canada GDP, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 5:48 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0491
The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2579
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 154.41 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $98,436.21
Ether rose 4.9% to $3,511.14
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.35%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.25%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.38%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $70.98 a barrel
Spot gold fell 1.6% to $2,673.87 an ounce
I Disagree With This
I’ve left the name out of this, but if you’re curious enough, you could probably figure out who wrote the post—it really doesn’t matter. I respectfully disagree, and here’s why:
Right now, the title of “most hated rally” (if it happens) belongs to Ethereum. If XRP, Cardano, or Litecoin suddenly broke all-time highs and became the best-performing assets, I’d argue they’d steal the crown. But since that’s not the case, I’ll table that idea and stick to why I think it’s ETH.
Does half the crypto space really own ETH? Ethereum’s current market dominance sits at 12.2%, compared to Bitcoin’s 58.4%. Is it fair to claim that “nobody owns Bitcoin” anymore? That feels like a massive stretch. Similarly, the notion that half the crypto space owns ETH also seems questionable. Even if the number is higher than I’m instinctively thinking, when it comes to meaningful positions, I’d bet it’s far fewer than half holding ETH right now.
That said, I do agree that Solana is the most under-owned asset. But if you compare ‘Solana owned by crypto people’ versus ‘Solana owned by Wall Street,’ the ratio is probably something like 99-to-1. Solana is thriving because the crypto community keeps choosing it—both as an investment and, let’s be honest, for the memes.
Meanwhile, my timeline is flooded with large accounts posting about Ethereum’s so-called mid-life woes, existential troubles, and identity crisis. There’s an oddly loud (and possibly louder than it is large) group rooting for ETH to fail. I don’t see any comparable cohort attacking Solana, Bitcoin, or any other asset with the same intensity or volume.
By the numbers, Bitcoin likely still has the most spectators—both inside and outside the crypto bubble. Many people are shocked it’s pumping so hard and probably feel left out if they don’t own any. But that’s not hate—it’s FOMO or skepticism. The days of widespread hate for Bitcoin and the broader crypto space are mostly behind us. The only real hate now seems to come from within our own community.
To the outside world, Solana and Ethereum are practically indistinguishable—they wouldn’t know enough to form an opinion. While Solana used to be hated, it’s now celebrated. That will likely continue until it poses a threat to Bitcoin (by displacing Ethereum). For now, Solana stealing market share from Ethereum is seen as a win for Bitcoiners.
In the end, maybe you’ll disagree with both the OP and me—and that’s the beauty of a free market. Everyone gets to make their case and their choice.
Trump Selects Scott Bessent As Treasury Secretary
Here’s a look at some standout quotes from Scott Bessent, the newly selected Treasury Secretary of the United States by President-elect Donald Trump:
“They’re willing to take on the whole industry because of the bad behavior of one actor,”
— Bessent, referencing SBF’s donations to Democratic causes.
“I have been excited about [Trump’s] embrace of crypto, and I think it fits very well with the Republican Party, the ethos of it. Crypto is about freedom, and the crypto economy is here to stay.”
“Crypto is bringing in young people, people who have not participated in markets.”
This is a big shift. Not only is Bessent replacing Janet Yellen—a prominent figure in the anti-crypto camp—but he’s also staunchly pro-crypto. His selection marks a significant departure from traditional government or academic picks for the role. Instead, Bessent is bringing a much-needed perspective from the investment world.
His resume is nothing short of impressive. He’s the founder of Key Square Group and served as chief investment officer at Soros Fund Management. And here’s a fun fact: Bessent played a pivotal role in George Soros’s legendary bet against the British Pound in 1992—a move that famously netted a $1 billion profit. If there’s anyone equipped to navigate the intersection of crypto, markets, and policy, it’s him.
This selection signals a potential turning point for the U.S. approach to crypto, with someone at the helm who genuinely understands both its economic promise and its cultural importance.
Spot ETH ETFs Are Still Struggling
Pictured above are the spot ETF net inflow charts for Ethereum and Bitcoin, stacked for comparison. In the Ethereum chart, you’ll see consistent cumulative net outflows from November 13 through November 20. Finally, on November 21, inflows of $91.21 million broke the dry streak. Unfortunately, the relief didn’t last long, as a ‘Red Friday’ followed—though data for that day hasn’t been posted yet.
In contrast, Bitcoin experienced net outflows only on November 13 and 14, followed by three consecutive days of massive inflows exceeding $800 million each.
My takeaway? Ethereum is still struggling. It’s too early to call the outflow pattern broken. When that turning point does come, though, I anticipate it will act as a much-needed tailwind for an asset that’s clearly in need of a boost.
The Blockchain Association Sent This Letter
It’s exciting to see the crypto space and government working together so effectively, even before the new administration officially takes office. What’s even more impressive is that many of the initiatives on this list are either already completed or actively in progress. Personally, I’m most eager to see who Trump selects for the crypto advisory council. This group has the potential to shape something truly historic, providing guidance to Trump and regulators over the next four years—a remarkable milestone for the industry..
Tether Aligns With The U.S Government
Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and newly appointed Commerce Secretary under Donald Trump, is set to launch a $2 billion Bitcoin-backed lending program with Tether's support. Additionally, Cantor, which manages a significant portion of Tether’s $132 billion in assets, acquired a 5% stake in Tether valued at $600 million over the past year. While Tether considers Lutnick a key ally, he has denied claims of political influence. Lutnick plans to divest his interests in Cantor upon Senate confirmation.
Bitcoin Skyrockets, Gensler Quits: The Start Of The Crypto Revolution | Caitlin Long
Get ready for a jaw-dropping episode of The Wolf Of All Streets! While discussing the latest crypto news and industry shifts, Gary Gensler drops a bombshell announcement—he’s resigning as SEC Chair. We break down what this means for Bitcoin, banking, and the future of cryptocurrency. Don’t miss Caitlin Long sharing exclusive insights on federal reforms, stablecoin patents, and the fight for crypto-friendly banking!
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.