The Wolf Den #1078 - Remember This Feeling
You will feel it again.
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In This Issue:
Remember This Feeling
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
The Polymarket Whale Is A Genius
CZ Is One Of Us
Hester Peirce's Appointment Seems Unlikely
Detroit Hops On The Crypto Standard
Up Only: What's Next For Crypto & Bitcoin After Trump's Big Win
Remember This Feeling
Introspection - From Merriam-Webster: a reflective looking inward; an examination of one's own thoughts and feelings.
Do this: take out your phone, open your crypto wallet-tracking app, check in with your online broker, tally up your current net worth, and review its growth over the past week or two. Then, take a moment and carefully examine how you feel.
Take this last part seriously. Is there a rush of excitement swelling in your chest? Are you grinning ear to ear, feeling vindicated as your crypto conviction pays off? Or are you stone-cold serious, unaffected, with no room for emotions?
There’s no wrong way to feel right now—you’ve earned the right to be excited about crypto’s success. And if you’re feeling unenthused, maybe you're in the wrong positions, or perhaps you’re more composed than 99% of crypto investors and built to handle anything.
Now that you're beginning to understand your emotions and reactions to success, it's important to recognize that there is a wrong way to approach things from here on out. The biggest mistake you can make is ignoring how you feel right now. Doing so will only make it harder to recognize and manage those emotions as the cycle intensifies.
Let’s be honest: only a few euphoric moments remain in this cycle. When they arrive, remember that while we can speculate about price rises, there will eventually be a ‘last’ time, and prices won’t go higher. A swift bloodbath will follow, with euphoric investors entirely unprepared, in denial the entire time.
Depending on your feelings now, consider how future predictions might sway you when the final waves of euphoria hit, especially as others confidently talk about Bitcoin reaching $500,000 or even $1 million. The ‘super cycle’ narrative will try to convince you that prices could effortlessly jump another 10%, 50%, even over 100%.
If you're already convinced Bitcoin will hit those numbers this cycle, then hold steady—maybe you’ll be right. But if you’re not convinced now, changing your stance impulsively later on could be disastrous unless unforeseen, fundamental shifts emerge. And let’s be real: everyone will try to convince you that’s happening, regardless.
I want to emphasize the importance of introspection and recognizing your emotions now, so when they resurface a second or third time as prices set new highs, your judgment stays grounded. The excitement you’re feeling now is likely mild compared to what’s coming; these moments will only intensify with each new high.
In the second half of today’s newsletter, I’ll briefly reflect on the emotional journey that’s brought us to this point. Many of you might feel the urge to share your portfolio wins with friends and family. While some may have the right relationships for that, I generally advise against it. As an aside, this tends to be the ultimate top signal.
In most cases, sharing the details of your gains or the bear market bet that’s finally paying off doesn’t yield real returns and is almost always a trap. Very few people outside of crypto have a clue who Gary Gensler is or what Operation Chokepoint 2.0 entails. Bitcoin remains a confusing topic for the majority, and 99% of people don’t care about your diamond hands.
Does this mean you need to bottle up your accomplishments and carry the weight alone? Absolutely not—we’re a community, and we understand the journey it took to get here. Find a friend who truly gets crypto and share your excitement with them. Just keep in mind that the outside world doesn’t always receive success well, and money can be a sensitive topic, so avoid pushing your achievements too far onto others.
At its core, investing is a solo journey. It demands that individuals navigate their own course through successes and failures. While other investors may relate, only you truly understand your struggles. There are no teammates, and coaches are rarely worth your time or energy. If you want to stay on the path to success, you must become your own number one supporter and teacher. That’s just how it works.
Never forget, though, that we do, at the very least, have each other. In many ways, this newsletter is a tribute to all of you—a congratulations to the hard work you've put in, an honest reflection on my own journey, and an acknowledgment of what may lie ahead for each of you. I may not know you, but I’m incredibly proud of you. The fact that you’re here says everything I need to know.
Nothing about investing is easy, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either not playing at a high level or hoping their returns come from your pockets. Sure, luck plays a role, but investors—like anyone else—learn through losses, and those losses have real-world consequences that hit close to home.
I’m excited to ride out the rest of this bull market with all of you, and I’ll be here for mental check-ins to keep us grounded and rational. It’s only going to get harder to stay level-headed, but if we put in the work now, this will be the cycle where we truly shine.
Take this weekend to reflect on what you want from this cycle. As always, prioritize your health, your family’s needs, and your overall well-being. Holding and stacking Bitcoin is cool, but taking care of bad debt, addressing lingering health issues, and ensuring your kids are well cared for is far more important than any crypto position you’ll ever build.
$80,000 soon.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has avoided bearish divergence, for now, and is sustaining momentum above the previous all time high. This is about as bullish as it gets, honestly. There’s nothing to worry about here for now.
All systems go.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
As you know, I’m a long-time ETH bull, and I see its recent underperformance as a major opportunity. BlackRock and other institutions have effectively endorsed Ethereum with the introduction of ETFs and are actively choosing the chain to tokenize real-world assets.
Historically, ETH underperforms in this phase of the cycle before making a significant move.
We might be seeing the start of that move now.
The weekly chart shows oversold RSI levels for only the fourth or fifth time ever, along with bullish divergence for just the second time. This week's candle is a bullish engulfing, and ETH is currently outperforming.
This really looks like a bottom forming.
Legacy Markets
U.S. stock futures declined as the post-election rally driven by Donald Trump’s win took a pause, while Treasuries gained following a Federal Reserve rate cut, with potential for more easing next month. The S&P 500 saw a slight pullback after a strong week, bolstered by prospects of tax cuts and deregulation under Trump. Meanwhile, U.S. equity funds saw significant inflows after Trump’s victory.
In China, stocks and the yuan dropped as a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt refinancing plan failed to meet investors’ expectations for more substantial economic support. The news impacted European markets, especially sectors tied to Chinese demand like mining and luxury goods. Market sentiment shows mixed reactions as some investors pull back on “Trump Trades,” wary of the potential impacts of tariffs and fiscal spending policies.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 6:07 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8%
The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0781
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2963
The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 152.23 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $76,288.71
Ether rose 1.2% to $2,927.15
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.30%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.39%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.46%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $71.13 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,688.96 an ounce
The Polymarket Whale Is A Genius
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis reports that a pseudonymous Polymarket user, known as “Théo” or “Fredi9999,” has earned $78.7 million in net profit from U.S. election bets, including wagers on Donald Trump and swing states. Théo previously drew attention due to allegations of manipulating odds in Trump’s favor by managing multiple accounts on the decentralized platform. However, an October investigation by Polymarket found no evidence of manipulation, instead suggesting that prediction markets reflect available information.
The second half of this story is where this takes an intriguing turn. A Wall Street Journal report revealed that Théo based his betting strategy on what’s being termed the “Neighbor Effect.” Rather than directly asking people who they planned to vote for, Théo hired a major pollster to ask people who they thought their neighbors would support, suspecting some voters might be reluctant to admit they were backing Trump. The results showed Trump overperforming across the board. According to Théo, traditional polls failed to take into account the, “shy Trump voter effect.”
Unfortunately, the French national gambling authority are investigating Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling laws, prompted by increased demand during the U.S. election and scrutiny over Théo’s betting activity. It is being rumored now that authorities may ban access to Polymarket in France, as online gambling is strictly regulated, requiring prior authorization for new markets.
CZ Is One Of Us
CZ has been out of prison for just over a month, and it’s still disheartening to see him without any role or influence in Binance. On the bright side, he now has a chance to witness the company he built potentially benefit from a Trump presidency. We owe a lot to CZ. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he shared insights on his current relationship with Binance. Here is what he shared:
“I don’t think I want to go back. I’ve been leading the company for seven years. I enjoyed it. It’s a lot of work. But I think that chapter is that chapter. I’m not saying that I’m going to hold onto the equity forever or not. I’m happy to review every offer, but so far I haven’t done anything. But, you know, I’m just a regular shareholder at this point.”
This part was kind of funny, “Many of them (the prison guards) asked, like, which coins should they buy?”
Hester Peirce's Appointment Seems Unlikely
Hester Peirce would be the ideal choice for Trump to replace Gary Gensler. She has experience in the role, aligns with Republican values, and is a strong supporter of crypto. However, according to sources close to her, Peirce is planning to retire at the end of her term in June 2025. A spokesperson from her office commented, “the only thing Commissioner Peirce has thought about doing after she leaves the Commission is becoming a beekeeper, and even there she’s having cold feet.” Peirce has reportedly been expressing her desire to leave the SEC for a year. While we can hope that encouragement from the industry and a call from President Trump might persuade her to stay, the chances seem slim. Imagine the fatigue of working under Gensler, dissenting on major issues, and never being able to regulate on her own terms. The crypto community owes a lot to Hester Peirce—let’s continue to support her, whether she decides to stay or move on.
Detroit Hops On The Crypto Standard
Detroit will soon allow residents to pay city taxes and fees using cryptocurrency through a secure platform managed by PayPal, making it the largest U.S. city to offer this option. This initiative, part of a broader strategy to embrace innovative technology, aims to improve public services, support economic growth, and attract blockchain entrepreneurs. Starting mid-2025, the cryptocurrency payment option will go live along with other improvements to payment systems to enhance accessibility for all residents, including the unbanked. So far, only three states US states (Colorado, Utah, Louisiana) accept cryptocurrency for state payments.
“The Treasurer’s Office is committed to modernizing our payments channels and processes to enhance the customer experience and improve internal operational efficiency. This new payment platform will increase accessibility for Detroiters who would like to use cryptocurrency; more importantly, the platform upgrade will also make it easier for Detroiters to make electronic payments – including those who may be unbanked.” From the mayor Mike Duggan, “Detroit is building a technology-friendly environment that empowers residents and entrepreneurs. We are excited to be one of the first major U.S. cities to explore blockchains civic applications and allow residents to use their cryptocurrency as a payment option.”
Up Only: What's Next For Crypto & Bitcoin After Trump's Big Win
Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, a crypto venture fund, joins me today to discuss the prospects of Bitcoin and crypto following Donald Trump's big win in the U.S. elections.
In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.