The Wolf Den #107 - Technical Analysis Is A Risk Management Tool
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin remains exceptionally bullish, which has been definitively the case since the break of and close above $10,540. If you have been following or have been subscribed to this newsletter, you know that I firmly believed that the March lows were the bottom and that continued movement up from there was likely. I have outlined a number of massive bullish trades on large time frames. I have stressed dollar cost averaging as my core strategy for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. All you have ever had to do in this market is buy Bitcoin and be patient. That is the CORE OF MY STRATEGY. Dollar cost average and hold.
There are countless fundamental reasons at this point to be bullish on Bitcoin:
MicroStrategy buys $425m in Bitcoin
Square buys $50m in Bitcoin
Stone Ridge buys $110m in Bitcoin
PayPal integrates crypto purchases
JPMorgan writes about Bitcoin vs Gold competition
DBS soft launches crypto exchange
Infinite QE, money printing
OCC allows banks to custody crypto
It's all happening right before our eyes.
MONTHLY CHART
The highest monthly close in history for Bitcoin is $13,863.13. While many remember the parabolic move to 20K, it seems they often forget that it happened very quickly, and that price retraced the entire move from 10-20K just as fast. A close above that blue line would be the HIGHEST EVER for Bitcoin. A close above $11,655 would be the second highest close in history, which we just saw in August.
The March candle (huge wick down) was as clear of a macro bottom and reversal candle as you can find on a time frame this high. The fact that April engulfed that candle bullishly and closed above solidified this case. That was a bottom, and there's been no true reason to be macro bearish since. Dips have been and remain for buying.
There is NO resistance on the monthly chart above $13,863.13 until the previous all time high. Period.
WEEKLY CHART
Hard to feel bearish looking at last week's candle. Minimal wicks on bottom and top, huge green (grey for me) body and blasting through a key resistance at $12,486. As I have mentioned on Twitter, that's an area where I have meaningful orders in case we see a pull back. When a key resistance is broken, you look for it to be retested as support. You can see that on every key level shown below. If you have been following along, we were macro long from each of those lines on the retests as support, with $9,764 and $10,540 being the last two meaningful trades.
My only concern when looking at the weekly is that we have generally seen descending volume on the entire rise from the bottom. That said, last week's candle was an increase, so we would love to see that trend continue with meaningful volume this week.
DAILY CHART
There are only 43 days in HISTORY that Bitcoin has traded above the current price. This is the clearest case for dollar cost averaging. You could not be down on this strategy if you tried. Averaging into a volatile trending market is basically free money.
That said, the above chart shows a green 9 on TD Sequential, which is a sell signal. I only use this indicator for occasional confluence of an idea, but it's worth watching. Other green 9s are shown with red checks. None have been trend reversals, but all have at least preceded a small drop, leading to great opportunities to buy the dip. This lines up with the idea I shared above on the weekly chart about a potential retest to the $12,500 area.
This can go to 13 candles without being invalidated, so nothing has changed as of yet on the current candle.
I am NOT looking to short. I am looking to long dips, if and when they happen.
4-HOUR CHART
Price is bullish and blasting through divergences... but building more of them on low time frames, with RSI well into overbought territory. The newest divergence is not yet confirmed, but looks very likely. Confirmation would come after a clear elbow down on RSI and close, so not even at this close. Not a big concern for me, but adds to the possibility of a retrace that would be a likely buying opportunity.
BOTTOM LINE FOR BITCOIN
Large time frames look exceptionally bullish and I see no reason to change this bias for now. Lower time frames show that a retrace is possible, which would rationally be a good opportunity to buy before further movement up. I could understand scalping shorts, but I personally so no reason to play with fire. I am looking for it to cool off sooner than later, but the honey badger does what it wants!
Bitcoin Bullishness By IntoTheBlock
In this report, we bring to you the latest in on-chain cryptocurrency analysis. We look at the blockchain directly and analyze balances, transactions, and the overall activity of market participants. This gives us a unique insight into the future of the market.
This section is written in conjunction with IntoTheBlock (ITB). ITB is an intelligence company that leverages machine learning and advanced statistics to extract intelligent signals tailored to crypto-assets. IntoTheBlock tackles one of the hardest problems in crypto: to provide investors with a view of a crypto asset that goes beyond price and volume data.
The Wolf Den research team uses IntoTheBlock to dig deeper and get the most important insights about the crypto market. You should do the same!
This Week: Bitcoin Bullishness
Poised by several pieces of good news over the past weeks, Bitcoin recently broke the $13,000 barrier for the first time in over 15 months
Leveraging blockchain’s public nature, IntoTheBlock’s machine learning algorithms extract key data that provide a deeper dive into the recent Bitcoin’s price surge.
New Money Flows confirms the increasing demand for Bitcoin
The In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicator reveals that there’s isn’t much resistance that would allow Bitcoin to continue rising towards $15,000.
Looking at the levels of support, almost 1 million addresses had previously purchased a total of 635 thousand BTC between $12,899 and $13,285. If Bitcoin breaks that level, a larger level of support is located at an average price of $11,450. This is expected to act as support as holders in this range will attempt to remain profitable on their positions and push prices above this level.
See the Bitcoin Ownership by Time Held
The number of addresses with a holding period of less than 30 days, reached in October a high of 3.38 million addresses that in aggregate hold 1.94 million BTC. This number represents the highest volume in over 12 months, confirming the increasing demand for Bitcoin.
As Bitcoin reaches $13,000 again, the number of addresses profiting also reached a new high
See the Bitcoin Historical In/Out of the Money Chart
Using ITB’s Historical In/Out of the Money indicator, we can observe a large shift in the number of addresses profiting when compared to the yearly low in March. The Historical In/Out of the Money provides the distribution of in-the-money (profiting) and out-of-the-money (losing money) positions over time, and allows us to determine the number of investors that would have made a profit if they had sold their position at the price at that moment in time.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits at around $13,276. The last time Bitcoin was above $13,000 was in late June 2019 and since then, it reached a low of $4,909 on March 16 of this year. At that moment, 7.48 million addresses (25.21%) were "in the money" while 17.43 million (58.76%) were losing money on their positions.
Along with the PayPal announcement, this recent BTC rally has also been fueled by the slowing down of the DeFi craze (leading crypto investors to move to less risky assets), and a number of corporate purchases of Bitcoin from the likes of MicroStrategy, Square and Fidelity Digital Assets.
With the 7% jump followed by the PayPal announcement, the number of addresses profiting from their BTC positions ("in the money"), reached a new record with 32.26 million addresses (96.41%).
Bitcoin is showing strong on-chain support
The In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicator reveals that there’s isn’t much resistance that would allow Bitcoin to continue rising towards $15,000.
Looking at the levels of support, almost 1 million addresses had previously purchased a total of 635 thousand BTC between $12,899 and $13,285. If Bitcoin breaks that level, a larger level of support is located at an average price of $11,450. This is expected to act as support as holders in this range will attempt to remain profitable on their positions and push prices above this level.
Ethereum Analysis
I am a long term investor in Ethereum, alongside Bitcoin. My core strategy is dollar cost averaging and I have no stops or targets for the bulk of my Ethereum holdings. Below are more specific trade ideas.
ETH/BTC
While Ethereum has shown a lot of promise on the USD pair, the BTC pair has remained in a sustained downtrend and trading against BTC here (which I normally do with all other coins) is akin to catching a falling knife. However, I trade ETH with leverage on Phemex, which means primarily watching the USD pair.
I am watching closely for a potential reversal of the BTC pair, with clear potential oversold bullish divergence with RSI on the 4 hour chart (black arrow). This divergence also potentially exists on the daily. The 4 hour would confirm at noon EST today (right after this comes out) and the daily at the close. The daily still looks iffy, so we would need to see a much clearer elbow up on RSI. This is not shown above.
The first step to a reversal here would be flipping the blue line at .0302 to support. Then the real party should start with a break of the descending black line. That is by far the safest entry and would not be a falling knife, as it would be confirmation of a likely reversal.
ETH/USD
I remain extremely bullish on ETH, and bought the dip at multiple points yesterday (I shared all of this in real time on twitter) with leverage on Phemex. Ethereum has continued to make higher lows and higher highs (red checks) since the bottom of this trading range was formed on that large drop in the beginning of September. Yesterday appears to be another likely higher low. Further, there's a local support at $395 and the EQ (equilibrium, center dashed line) of the blue trading range that have currently been tested as support, with the expected wick below to grab some liquidity. The EQ of the range has acted as resistance a number of times and now is squarely holding as support. That should indicate a likely trip to the top of the range around $490, at minimum. A break above the range highs and close above and we can start discussing higher targets.
I have my stops below $350, with enough room to see that red line swept with a wick. This would violate market structure and form a lower low if price drops below it. The most recent low is NOT CONFIRMED YET, because confirmation would come with another higher high. So for now, our most relevant higher low is $361.38.
Altcoin Charts
I have been exercising caution on altcoins for weeks, sharing very few setups and some weeks none at all. While this has caused me to take some criticism and lose some subscribers, I maintain that taking no trades is a position just like entering a long or short. Knowing when to trade and when to sit on your hands is half the battle.
Altcoins still look generally rough and trading them largely amounts to catching falling knives. It's best to buy confirmed reversals in general and not to try to find the ultimate bottom. For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Sentivate is up over 60% since I posted the setup 5 days ago. COTI is still in profit, DOT made a beautiful bullish move and hit the target to almost the sat. The XTZ trade failed and I stopped out for a small loss, but I will be watching for another potential entry. The eGLD trade that I posted on twitter hit its target to the sat before reversing back down. We have had some really great trades, even in a poor alt market. I hvae a lot of ideas, but am holding most for Thursday, if we see some nice signs of a reveresal. Here are a few fresh ideas:
CRV/BTC
There is tons of supply coming on the market, the chart looks bad and it's never done anything but go down. That's all true.
That said, volume precedes price and we have seen two HUGE days of buying volume, with today's still only half way done. This will be the biggest volume candle in the short history of this coin, which suggests there is real buying interest at these levels. Also, RSI is coming out of oversold on the daily for the first time in ages, which usually leads to a trip to overbought (this can take a long time).
The blue line would be the first indication that this is truly reversing, so the safest entry is a break of that line and ideally a retest as support. That's at 431. You could enter now and catch a potential 20% move up to that line, but it's far riskier than waiting for the confirmation. Below 254 and this is making lower lows, again.
This is a really risky setup, but the potential reward is exponential. Here is a tweet about it from my friend IncomeSharks:
DREP/BTC
I am interested in the DREP/BTC pair at the current level and down to around 20 sats. You can see a blue demand zone drawn on the daily chart. This is drawn off the last down candle before the move up to around 40 sats, indicating there are likely orders that were left behind in this area. Price finds liquidity, and you can see that it dropped into this zone and bounced nicely so far. Also, the bottom of the wick is at 24 sats, exactly the 71.8% retracement level of the entire move up from 15 sats to the highs at 57 sats. That's a really good sign that this could be bottoming out. You can use the lines drawn and fibs as targets if this continues up. Above 30 would be even stronger confirmation that this is reversing, but I could see taking a smaller position now in this demand zone.
PNT/BTC
I want to see a daily close above 3436 to trigger interest in this trade. A break of the top of this small descending wedge would be even further confirmation. Even a modest target at the top of that wedge at 4601 would be around a 30% move up, so there's a lot of potential here. My real interest was sparked by the bullish divergence with RSI coming out of oversold. That will confirm today if we close like this. If I see that div, plus a close above 3436 and a break of the descending black line, I will add more to my long term staked position in this coin.
Legacy Markets
Today's stock picks and words from Altcoin Psycho.
Buy the dip edition! Here's a few dips I'm buying:
DKNG (DRAFTKINGS INC.)
This one is a higher risk high reward play. Right now this stock is NOT A BUY. We just broke a major support, and I am not interested in this stock until it reclaims the level or it dips all the way down in to the green reversion band cloud. The reason I say it's higher risk is because this stock will struggle if COVID continues to worsen and we see another wave of sport cancellations. If, however, the stock can recover, it has good upside with a clear gap that needs to be filled above.
NIO
NIO is one of my most bullish picks for 2021. I think this stock will see $30 in the near future. I am going to start laddering in buys now, with the heavier bids coming from the gap fill zone in green along with the retest of the 50 day EMA, as price has respected this EMA beautifully well. Scott has shared very similar ideas on this stock.
Plan Your Losses
Have you ever bought a lottery ticket and sat around dreaming of all of the things you will do when you win? While this is a fun exercise, many investors and traders, particularly in crypto, view the market in the same manner. They buy a coin and think about the 100X that it is likely to pull. They start dreaming of quitting their job and buying a Lambo.
For traders, the attitude described above is dangerous and unhealthy. I approach every single trade I make based on the assumption that I am wrong. Rather than planning for a win, I always plan for a loss. This serves me in a few ways. First, when you are planning to lose, it forces you to look for the best entry possible, one that is close to invalidation and justifies a tight stop loss. Second, when you plan to be wrong you trade defensively, looking to lose as little as possible. This helps to eliminate greed from your thinking and allows you to view the trade realistically. Remember - the first rule of trading is to protect your capital. “The best offense is a good defense.”
Value At Risk 101
By Sahil Bloom.
In any financial meltdown, you tend to hear the term "value at risk" a lot in the aftermath of the destruction. "But our value at risk models said..." becomes a common refrain. So what is Value at Risk and how does it work? Here's Value at Risk 101!
First, a few definitions. Value at Risk, or "VAR" for short, is a statistic that aims to quantify the level of financial risk within a firm, portfolio, or position in a specific time interval. It is comprised of a time period, a confidence level, and a loss amount.
Its intended use is in managing risk. It provides a single metric to "bound" the potential losses of a portfolio or position. Commercial banks, investment banks, and institutional investors are frequent users of VAR. Let's look at how it is calculated and where it fails.
There are three primary ways VAR is calculated: (1) Historical - uses historical outcomes to predict future volatility. (2) Variance-Covariance - uses a normal distribution to predict future returns (3) Monte Carlo - uses a Monte Carlo simulation model to predict outcomes.
There are also real deficiencies with each: (1) Historical - assumes past performance is an indication of future performance. (2) Variance-Covariance - assumes future returns are normally distributed. (3) Monte Carlo - assumes accuracy derived from brute force modeling.
The ultimate output of each of these calculation methodologies is to make the following statement: "I am [X%] confident that our portfolio/position will not lose more than [Y%] during [set period of time]." As a risk manager, this talking point will keep your bosses happy.
While VAR may provide risk managers with a nifty, single metric for quantifying risk, it has serious drawbacks with meaningful consequences. First, methodologies using historical returns can be easily manipulated by cherry-picking historical periods. This is manageable.
The bigger issue, which Taleb is clear in pointing out in several of his famous books, is VAR misses the mark on accurately predicting the likelihood and impact of tail-risk events. We systematically underestimate them. Events are unprecedented, until they aren't.
In 2008, we saw this deficiency in action. The VAR calculations at major banks failed to capture the true risks of the portfolios of subprime mortgages held by many financial institutions. This led to the near-collapse of the global financial system.
Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund managed by geniuses (seriously, they had two Nobel Prize winners), collapsed in 1998 when events outside the bounds of their VAR modeling crashed their fund. It nearly took down the financial system with it.
So while the idea of a quantitative measure of risk is not a bad one, in practice, VAR has real flaws that may diminish its effectiveness. As VAR has been used in the past to justify risk-taking that had negative cascade effects through the system, it may require a rethink.
For more on the topic of VAR, its pitfalls, and the role of randomness in life, I highly recommend reading The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness by Taleb. Honestly, just read anything by him! Foundational classics.
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Polkastarters Review
I participated in the Polkastarter presale, and have had a number of questions about the project. These are the highlights as to why I invested and am interested.
Polkastarter is a Polkadot-based project that is building a DEX for cross-chain token pools and auctions, enabling projects to raise capital on a decentralized, permissionless and interoperable environment.
1. It's Polkadot and DeFi
Polkadot and DeFi are two of the strongest narratives in the current iteration of the cryptocurrency market, with retail investors flocking to get a piece of hot upcoming projects. Polkastarter quickly justified the hype, becoming one of the most anticipated recent token sales and ending up listing at +30x the private-sale price. Thanks to this Polkadot / DeFi narrative it eventually reached number #4 on Uniswap volume ranking and #1 on Coingecko top searches.
Polkarstarter is first going to deploy a minimum viable product on Ethereum and later launch the working product on the Polkadot environment, enabling Polkadot projects to raise funds in DOT or any other Polkadot-based tokens that the project chooses to raise in. So the hype is going to continue through 2021.
2. Strong token utility
The Polkastarter token is going to be used for staking, governance, and liquidity mining. Holders will be able to stake to get access to closed token pools, to get a share of the project’s revenue, and to be able to participate in the governance mechanisms.
$POLS staking gets particularly interesting when it comes to getting a piece of Polkastarter earnings and the way it works is pretty straight forward. Token pools on Polkastarter will incur a fixed fee, paid by the pool creator. If a pool creator receives, let’s say 1000 ETH worth of a token, and the fee is fixed at 1%, 10 ETH will be deducted from his purchase and added to the staking reward pool.
Staking rewards will also be distributed in 24-hour cycles. If a user holds 2% of the total staked POLS during that 24-hour cycle, that user will get the equivalent of 2% of all the staking rewards for that same period. If during that period Polkastarter generated 10,000 ETH, that user will get 200 ETH.
3. Liquidity Mining
To incentivize network effects, Polkastarter is distributing a fixed amount of tokens daily.
With this liquidity mining program, liquidity providers can claim rewards in POLS for contributing to the platform volume.
Everyday POLS tokens will be distributed for all liquidity providers on a pro-rata basis. If there is a 1000 ETH swap volume for 24 hours, a user that contributed with 100 ETH in volume will receive a % of the total daily liquidity rewards.
Liquidity providers can claim their reward after 24 hours and will have 7 days to claim their reward tokens on the Polkastarter dashboard. Unclaimed tokens will be sent back to the rewards pool for later distribution.
4. DEX volume is in an exponential growth phase
The monthly volumes for decentralized trading platforms registered an 1100% growth in comparison to 2019. Aggregate trading volume on decentralized exchanges reached $23.5 billion in September, up from $11.6 billion in August as the intense enthusiasm for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications continued to spread.
Another amazing statistic is that, for the first time, Uniswap's monthly trade volume exceeded that of crypto exchange Coinbase. During September, Uniswap saw approximately $15.4 billion in volume, while Coinbase reported $13.6 billion in monthly trade volume.
5. The product solves the biggest problem for Uniswap-based token listings
Uniswap is one of the most amazing innovations that the cryptocurrency market ever saw. It provides a decentralized, permissionless, secure, and liquid platform for cryptocurrency trading based on Ethereum. But while it works really well for established cryptocurrencies, it lacks features for newly created projects.
When a freshly minted token is listed on Uniswap, bots automatically fetch it making it virtually impossible to buy hyped projects at their listing price. Polkastarter technology solves this by providing fixed token pools, pretty much working as a decentralized Coinlist.
6. The team
One of the biggest criticisms that Polkastarter has been facing is the fact it got so big in terms of awareness and hype without actually launching any product first. While this is perfectly normal in an innovation environment, especially in the startup world, crypto retail investors tend to be a little more anxious about technology, as there are many scams listing on Uniswap on a daily basis. This is where the experience of the team members comes in.
Firstly Daniel Stockhaus, the CEO. He is a serial tech entrepreneur that scaled his last company to over 1M users and $20M turnover. His last venture was acquired, which shows he can take a project from a blank sheet to a multi-million dollar business.
Secondly, Tiago Martins, the CTO. Tiago has been developing tech products for more than 10 years and his biggest success was founding a coding education company called Codeplace, a project that eventually scaled to +100,000 students and was eventually acquired by a competitor.
7. Partnerships
In the last couple of weeks Polkastarter has announced 2 very strong partnerships with Dia Labs and Orion Protocol. One of the main goals of the partnership is to have DIA as the main provider of decentralized oracles for ERC-20 prices, which will be used for Polkastarter’s high slippage alert features. Polkastarter is integrating with Orion Protocol to use Orion’s Liquidity Boost Plugin, enriching Polkastarter’s DEX with bottomless cross-exchange liquidity to provide automated liquidity to token swaps and pools. With this integration, Polkastarter guarantees constant activity and liquidity on several ERC-20 token pools.
Conclusion
As per the roadmap, Polkastarter is going to deliver its MVP in Q4 2020 and Polkadot migration will happen in early 2021. Exciting times are coming even with the ups and downs from the un-vesting of the private sale token purchases, which will be fully distributed over the next three months.
But the polka-hype is real and it’s not going to end anytime soon, making Polkastarter a strong contender to become one of the top projects of 2020 and beyond.
Additional reading:
https://bitcoinist.com/not-ethereum-polkastarter-the-dex-protocol-will-launch-on-polkadot/
https://coingape.com/polkastarter-review/
US Crypto Tax Payers Get A Bit More Clarity
No big surprises here, but worth noting if you are American. Any airdropped or forked crypto must be reported on your taxes. This makes sense, because it's "income" and free money is never really free. So if, for example, you received $1200 worth of UNI for free, you have to report that as income, whether you have sold the coin yet or not. Keep this in mind when filing your taxes.
Kanye West Talks Cryptocurrency
On the Joe Rogan Podcast, Kanye said, “the Bitcoin guys have a perspective on what the true liberation of America and humanity will be.” Regardless of your thoughts on him. Kanye has always been a trendsetter and at the forefront of what is “next.” He did it in fashion and music, and maybe now he is catching onto crypto.
Chamath Palihapitiya Talks Cyptocurrency
If Kanye didn't convince you, maybe one of today’s greatest investors can do so. In response to PayPal’s announcement to add a crypto service, Chamath fired off the tweet above. The domino effect has already begun hitting major companies like Square and Paypal. I believe this trend will continue as bigger and bigger companies/financial institutions continue to fall in line and gain exposure to Bitcoin.
Jack Ma Talks Cryptocurrency
The 18th richest person alive and founder of Alibaba just said in a speech that digital currencies may play an important role in building the type of financial system that will be needed in the next 30 years. He further said, “digital currency could create value and we should think about how to establish a new type of financial system through digital currency.” First, it will be people, then it will be companies, then financial institutions. One by one, cryptocurrency is taking everyone alone for the ride.
The Bitcoin Rich List
Just over 60% of the total supply of Bitcoin is held in addresses holding over 100 coins. It has also been recently reported that the population of Bitcoin whales is increasing. The reported source defined a whale as anyone owning over 1,000 Bitcoins in one address. It expect continued wealth concentration going into the next bull run. Don't be discouraged by this. Only 2.5% of Bitcoin addresses have between 1 and 1,000,000 Bitcoin with the vast majority of that 2.5% holding close to 1 Bitcoin. Everyone should consider buying some amount of Bitcoin and with that realize that owning an entire coin is both a luxury and privilege most will never have.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Todd Shapiro
Todd Shapiro, once a shy youth, found his comfort zone on camera and behind the microphone, becoming a Canadian radio sensation with a prime time show airing nightly. After pivoting from radio, Todd became an advocate for microdosing mushrooms, with the intention of breaking stigmas around psilocybin. His company, Red Light Holland, is smashing through regulatory barriers and destroying misconceptions. On the forefront of emerging markets, Todd also has an interest in Bitcoin and the blockchain.
Todd and I further discuss becoming a radio sensation, going on the show Blind Date, what is a “Magic Mushroom”, Magic Truffles vs. Magic Mushrooms, falling in love with capital markets, pink elephants and bending phones, stigmas and conspiracy theories, big pharma, appreciating the things that mean the most, a VR microdose headset, the Red Light District, psychedelics, psilocybin and more.
The podcast is sponsored by:
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.