The Wolf Den #1065 - Here, Take This Orange Pill
You'll love it.
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In This Issue:
Here, Take This Orange Pill
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
The Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.)
The Gold + Bitcoin ETF Launched
ETF Filings Are Pouring In
Bitcoin Skyrockets: Is It Time To Buy Crypto?
Here, Take This Orange Pill
You take the blue pill... the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the orange pill... you stay in Bitcoin-land, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.
That quote just works better this way.
Now, how often have you noticed the predictable path someone takes when they first encounter the orange pill? First, they dismiss it. Then they take it—and eventually, they become it. It’s a familiar journey: skepticism, curiosity, and finally, conviction. Bitcoin has a way of challenging initial assumptions and pulling people deeper into its world.
After years in this space, I’ve developed a knack for asking just a few non-technical questions about Bitcoin and, with surprising accuracy, determining how long someone has been studying it. Almost everyone, with only a few exceptions, follows the same trajectory. I followed it. You followed it. And soon, the world will too.
This is the journey of the orange pill.
(I’ve included what I believe to be the general time association with each stage, based on how much time someone spends actively thinking about Bitcoin—even if their early thoughts are completely wrong.)
Stage 1: The First Encounter – 'It’s Not Real' (Minutes to Hours)
For someone learning about Bitcoin for the first time—whether by overhearing a conversation, catching a pop culture reference, or reading a headline—it often feels abstract, almost unreal, like a video game item. It doesn’t seem relevant to everyday life, just another digital oddity floating around the internet.
At first, Bitcoin is often dismissed as 'magic internet money,' like digital Monopoly money—a novelty for finance bros or people who don’t take life too seriously. It seems disconnected from reality, more of a joke than something of real substance.
The orange pill is laughed off, pushed aside.
Stage 2: The Casual Investigation – 'It’s a Scam' (Hours to Days)
After spending a few days looking into Bitcoin, people tend to become curious but remain skeptical. They might come across negative press, high-profile hacks, or stories about Ponzi schemes and price volatility. This reinforces the belief that Bitcoin is too risky or, worse, a scam. Without a deep understanding of the technology or economics behind it, these surface-level concerns take hold, leading to the conclusion that it’s doomed to fail or collapse under regulatory pressure.
At this stage, newcomers often latch onto misinformation: 'Bitcoin mining destroys the environment,' 'Bitcoin has no intrinsic value,' 'Bitcoin is for criminals,' 'Bitcoin can be hacked or stolen,' or 'Bitcoin is just a bubble.' The orange pill still seems too good to be true.
Stage 3: Early Enthusiasm – 'I Can Trade This!' (Days to Weeks)
As curiosity grows, the investigation deepens. People often go down one of two paths—both risky in their own way. The first path leads to Ponzi schemes in the darker corners of Discord and Telegram, where the odds of being scammed are almost certain. The second, more common path involves seeing Bitcoin as an investment opportunity, but falling into the trap of trading or chasing altcoins for higher returns.
Many newcomers start trading, convinced they can outsmart the market or profit from quick gains. Early wins might inflate their confidence, but they soon realize that in a bull market, everyone looks like a genius. This false sense of security often leads to diminished profits during rallies and heavy losses during downturns.
To move beyond this phase, the orange pill must be taken, even if it's done out of faith rather than full understanding.
Stage 4: The Realization – 'This Is Bigger Than Trading' (Weeks to Months)
After a few months navigating the market, something shifts. While price volatility still intimidates, there’s a growing awareness that Bitcoin's true value extends far beyond short-term trading. People begin to appreciate its unique properties—decentralization, immutability, scarcity—and start to see the broader implications. Bitcoin’s potential becomes clearer, especially when traditional financial systems falter or when they learn how Bitcoin empowers people in countries with unstable currencies or oppressive governments.
At this stage, narratives about Bitcoin’s future start to make sense. Bitcoin’s impact is more than financial; it becomes personal. The orange pill starts to take hold.
Stage 5: Long-Term Conviction – 'HODL' (Months to Years)
After years of learning and living through market cycles, a new mindset emerges: Bitcoin isn’t just an asset—it’s a store of value for the digital age. You become a 'HODLer,' seeing Bitcoin as protection against inflation, economic instability, and political uncertainty. It's no longer about short-term gains but about securing long-term freedom and wealth.
At this point, Bitcoin becomes a fundamental part of your portfolio, not for quick profits but as a long-term safeguard. Every financial decision is now weighed against the value of Bitcoin, and its influence subtly seeps into all corners of your life.
You’ve become a true HODLer. And now, you only wish you had taken the orange pill sooner.
Everyone is somewhere along this path—some are just starting to get introduced to the orange pill, while others are ready to take it. It’s important to recognize where people stand and act as a guide on their journey. As Bitcoin’s price rises, it will push millions more toward Stage 5—sometimes faster than they’re ready for. Be mindful of this, and guide them at a steady pace.
The orange pill is for everyone. Now, go show the world its power.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I see nothing scary here. Right now, Bitcoin looks like it is heading back down for a retest of the $66,550 area. Even if that fails, we will look for another high low in this new sequence.
Legacy Markets
The Nasdaq 100 is set for gains, rising 0.9%, fueled by a recovery in chip stocks after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a 54% rise in quarterly earnings, easing concerns in the sector following ASML’s recent downgraded forecast. European markets also saw a boost, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.7%.
Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy decision, expected to deliver a second consecutive rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.25%. U.S. retail sales and jobless data are also anticipated, providing further insight into the U.S. economy's resilience.
Netflix is set to report its third-quarter earnings, with some concerns about the sustainability of its rally. Meanwhile, gold hit a record high, driven by election uncertainty, and oil steadied after recent declines. Nvidia, AMD, and Expedia shares advanced, with Expedia surging over 7% following reports of Uber's potential bid.
Key events this week:
ECB rate decision, Thursday
US retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Thursday
China GDP, Friday
US housing starts, Friday
Fed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as of 6:55 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.9%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7%
The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0861
The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3005
The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $67,153.45
Ether fell 0.2% to $2,611.9
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.03%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.20%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.07%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,688.55 an ounce
The Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.)
While much of the crypto world is focused on the election's potential impact, Elon Musk is making waves with a different play—doubling down on the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.). He’s donated $75 million to a political action committee backing Trump and continues to tweet about the department. As of my last check, Dogecoin is up 16% this week, with holders getting excited as Musk seems to be willing the concept into existence. Realistically, the agency will likely focus on government spending rather than Dogecoin, but for long-time holders, it still feels like a dream come true.
The Gold + Bitcoin ETF Launched
Fund issuer Stacked (STKD) has officially launched the STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF (BTGD), offering leveraged exposure to both Bitcoin and gold. This ETF is aimed at investors interested in the ‘debasement trade’ as the U.S. presidential elections approach. As per the Oct. 16 announcement, for every dollar invested, the ETF provides $1 of exposure to Bitcoin and $1 to a gold portfolio. It seeks to hedge against future inflation and currency debasement by holding a combination of ETFs and futures tied to the prices of Bitcoin and gold.
ETF Filings Are Pouring In
I’m not sure if these issuers are filing in anticipation of a regime change at the SEC or just saying “F it,” but we’ve got yet another major ETF filing to report—this time, Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund. The fund, which currently trades over the counter, includes BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and AVAX.
With so many ETF filings already rolling in, if Trump wins the election, we could see a flood of new ones hit the market. Wall Street may only be a few months away from having a full crypto buffet of options to choose from.
Bitcoin Skyrockets: Is It Time To Buy Crypto?
I’m joined by Bill Barhydt, founder of Abra, to discuss the latest bullish sentiment in crypto and, of course, yesterday’s debate between John Deaton and Elizabeth Warren!
Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.