The Wolf Den #1060 - Does A Reference Point Matter?
How do you judge your performance?
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share the news, my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and my random musings. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE. Subscribe!
Today’s Newsletter Is Made Possible By Phemex!
Phemex is the most efficient crypto trading and investment platform. Phemex offers over 293 spot trading pairs, minimal fees, peer-to-peer trading, derivatives, up to 100x leverage, and $8,800 welcome rewards up for grabs! Also for a limited time, if you mint your soul pass you will pay no gas fees and enjoy VIP benefits. Use MY LINK to get the rewards!
Make sure to check if Phemex is available in your jurisdiction.
In This Issue:
Does A Reference Point Matter?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Peter Todd Named Satoshi By HBO
Bitfinex Hits The Jackpot
This Would Be Bad
VanEck To Join The VC Space
FBI Creates Token To Catch Fraudsters. Wow!
Was Satoshi Nakamoto's Identity Revealed? It Doesn't Matter - Bitcoin Is Here To Stay!
Does A Reference Point Matter?
Here's a simple task for everyone:
Open up a tab with your crypto portfolio and ask yourself—what point in the past are you using to judge your performance?
I'll use Bitcoin as an example and walk through this experiment with you.
Over the past month, Bitcoin's performance is up 11.5%.
But one month is far too short to be the basis for meaningful evaluation.
Maybe we should measure from three months ago? In that case, Bitcoin is only up around 5%.
And measuring from six months ago isn't much better—Bitcoin has been completely sideways during that time.
Does Year-to-Date (YTD) even make sense? It feels arbitrary, but at least there’s been some movement—Bitcoin is up 44% YTD.
Maybe we should be measuring from the most recent all-time high of $73,780 in March of this year? From that perspective, Bitcoin’s performance has been brutal—down for seven straight months, with price action dragging sideways and faking us out multiple times along the way. Bitcoin is currently down 17% from that ATH.
Or should we measure from the December 2022 low of $16,500? Sure, it looks impressive in terms of gains, but let's be honest—that feels like cherry-picking favorable data. None of us grabbed that dip in any meaningful size. Still, Bitcoin is up 270% since then.
You can read all the literature you want, but there’s no hard and fast rule for determining the best way to gauge any particular asset. And let’s not forget, no two assets were launched at the same time, making their life cycles even more complex when you try to look back at various reference points.
So, what should a responsible investor do? Should they wait for the asset to rise by a certain percentage from a specific point on the chart? Should they focus solely on hitting a particular return and ignore everything else? Perhaps, for a long-term Bitcoin investor, price charts and past reference points shouldn’t even be a concern. Instead, they might consider holding until transformative events unfold—like the U.S. buying Bitcoin or multiple countries adopting a Bitcoin standard.
In that case, the daily ups and downs would become irrelevant because the real opportunity lies in those massive, world-shifting moments.
There’s no clear answer to this question, and it only gets more complicated when you consider that most serious long-term Bitcoin investors likely have no clue what their true cost average is—and may never know for sure.
We buy Bitcoin at random times, trade it, lend it, spread it across multiple wallets, use it for transactions, and even leverage other coins to stack more BTC. It’s not a straightforward calculation, and trying to pinpoint it feels almost irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. I’d wager that more than 90% of you have no idea how much you’ve put into Bitcoin—and honestly, that’s okay. The OGs would probably agree, especially since much of their Bitcoin came from platforms that no longer exist, making it impossible to track down their exact cost average, even if they tried.
My advice? Forget about trying to find the perfect reference point—it’s irrelevant when it comes to Bitcoin. Unlike owning Apple stock, a 10-year treasury note, or a rental property, Bitcoin plays by different rules. It’s not about short-term price swings or timing your entry. The real point of Bitcoin is exchanging depreciating fiat and traditional assets for something far more pristine, future-proof, and revolutionary. What matters 10 times more than worrying about a reference point is focusing on accumulating more Bitcoin. And by that, I don’t mean obsessively trading to maximize your stack—I’m talking about buying what you’re comfortable with and gradually pushing the limits of that comfort zone over time.
If you’ve got 3% of your net worth in Bitcoin, push yourself to raise that—listen to more podcasts, read a few more books, and dive deeper into the space. The goal is to reach a point where it feels natural to sit at 5%, then keep pushing higher while still being responsible. When you zoom out far enough, you’ll see that, from any reference point, Bitcoin’s price consistently trends upward. This means your net worth allocation will increase on its own as long as you're invested in Bitcoin—the greatest asset on Earth.
Forget about reference points or cost averages—just buy Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is doing nothing at the moment. Price is trapped between the blue 50 MA and red 200 MA on the daily chart.
One day we will have more exciting updates to share… for now. Boring.
Legacy Markets
Key events this week:
US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Fed’s John Williams and Thomas Barkin speak, Thursday
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo kick off earnings season for the big Wall Street banks, Friday
US PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Fed’s Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 7:45 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0930
The British pound was little changed at $1.3070
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.08 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $61,188.01
Ether rose 2.1% to $2,402.92
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.09%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.28%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $74.11 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,612.67 an ounce
Peter Todd Named Satoshi By HBO
After all the back-and-forth between Adam Back, Len Sassaman, and Nick Szabo on Polymarket about the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, a new name surfaced in the HBO documentary—Peter Todd. The documentary suggests Todd could be the creator of Bitcoin, but the evidence is incredibly weak. The “proof” hinges on one of Satoshi’s last highly technical posts. Peter Todd replied to it on the original mailing list, and the reply seemed like a continuation of the same thought process, as if Satoshi logged out and Todd logged in to finish the conversation. That’s it—that’s the entirety of the evidence.
If you watch Peter’s reaction, it’s quite revealing. He nervously laughs throughout the theory's presentation, likely because it's so absurd. He dismisses it as “ludicrous,” commenting that it sounds like something a documentary journalist would dream up. He goes on, “Sure, I’m Satoshi, and I’m Craig Wright. This will be hilarious when you include it in the documentary for all the Bitcoiners to see. They’ll probably enjoy it, as it highlights how journalists often miss the point in a way that's both amusing and frustrating. The real goal is to make Bitcoin a global currency, but people like you keep getting sidetracked by absurdities.”
Good on Peter Todd for using his moment of fame to call out the journalists and refocus the discussion on what truly matters—Bitcoin. I’m actually surprised the filmmakers left that part in, but it did get people to watch, so maybe they’re satisfied with that outcome, even if their theory is complete nonsense.
One key takeaway from this story is that Polymarket is fundamentally a gambling platform. Peter Todd wasn’t even listed as one of the possible outcomes, so anyone who bet on “Other/Multiple” ended up winning. Out of the $44 million in total volume, only $3.8 million—less than 10%—went to that category, and a good portion of that was likely from insiders. Fifteen specific individuals were named, and none of them turned out to be the correct answer—go figure.
Bitfinex Hits The Jackpot
A recent U.S. government filing indicates that Bitfinex may be the sole entity eligible for restitution from the 2016 hack, which resulted in the theft of roughly 120,000 BTC. Following this news, Bitfinex’s LEO token surged 14%, reaching $6.85, as optimism grew around the potential recovery of $7.4 billion in assets. According to court documents, Bitfinex is considered the sole victim because it had already compensated users by reducing account balances and issuing BFX tokens after the hack.
Interestingly, I couldn’t find BFX tokens trading anywhere, and there’s no information on CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko. The article mentions that all BFX tokens were redeemed by 2017, with some users opting for shares in Bitfinex’s parent company, iFinex. It’s unclear how well users were compensated, but it seems that Bitfinex will receive the recovered funds, leaving users without direct input or benefit. My suspicion is that users likely weren’t fully reimbursed through the distribution of new tokens and company shares.
This Would Be Bad
The U.S. Supreme Court just shut down a case involving 69,370 Bitcoins (worth about $4.4 billion) seized from a Silk Road wallet, clearing a major legal hurdle. With no more obstacles, the U.S. Marshals Service could now move forward with auctioning off the Bitcoin. Battle Born Investments had attempted to claim the BTC, arguing they obtained it from Raymond Ngan—allegedly ‘Individual X,’ the hacker who originally took the coins—but the courts rejected their claim.
Now that this case is out of the way, there’s nothing stopping the government from offloading the Bitcoin. Unfortunately, this comes on the heels of Germany selling off $2 billion worth of seized BTC recently. If Trump wins and follows through on the idea of creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, as has been discussed, this could mean the government might be back in the market to buy down the line.
VanEck To Join The VC Space
VanEck, a household name in crypto with over $118 billion in assets under management and known for launching BTC and ETH ETFs, has unveiled VanEck Ventures—its first venture capital fund, targeting $30 million. The fund aims to invest in early-stage startups within fintech, digital assets, and artificial intelligence, with a special focus on tokenization and stablecoins. Led by former Circle Ventures executives Wyatt Lonergan and Juan Lopez, VanEck Ventures expands the firm’s strategy to include both liquid and illiquid crypto investments. Final fundraising is expected to close this quarter, and it's usually a promising sign to see venture activity picking up in the space.
FBI Creates Token To Catch Fraudsters. Wow!
The FBI and DOJ recently charged 18 individuals and entities with fraud and market manipulation as part of "Operation Token Mirrors." This sting operation, the first of its kind, involved the FBI creating a fake cryptocurrency called NexFundAI to infiltrate pump-and-dump schemes in the crypto market. Among those charged were employees of major crypto market makers such as Gotbit, ZM Quant, and CLS Global. These companies allegedly provided services that artificially inflated trading volumes, deceiving investors into believing there was organic demand.
The operation seized over $25 million in cryptocurrency, and some defendants have already pleaded guilty. This crackdown marks a significant effort by the U.S. government to combat fraud in the crypto space, following similar actions in the past against wash trading and market manipulation. Those charged face serious consequences, including up to 20 years in prison for wire fraud, conspiracy, and money laundering.
Was Satoshi Nakamoto's Identity Revealed? It Doesn't Matter - Bitcoin Is Here To Stay!
The new HBO documentary that was supposed to reveal the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto did not impress the crypto community. Does it really matter after all who Satoshi is? I am joined by David Duong, The Head Of Institutional Research at Coinbase to discuss this and more.
Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Phemex - Exclusive for new users, earn up to 8800 USDT. Also for a limited time, if you mint your soul pass you will pay no gas fees and enjoy VIP benefits. Use MY LINK to get the rewards!
Arch Public - It’s a hedge fund in your pocket. Built for retail traders, designed to outperform Wall Street. Try emotionless algorithmic trading at Arch Public today.
Trading Alpha - Trade With Confidence! My new go-to indicator site and trading community. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount.
X - I spend most of my time on X, contributing to CryptoTownHall every weekday morning, sharing random charts, and responding to as many of you as I can.
YouTube - Home of the Wolf Of All Streets Podcast and daily livestreams. Market updates, charts, and analysis! Sit down, strap in, and get ready—we’re going deep
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.