The Wolf Den #1049 - Token2049
What a week!
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In This Issue:
Token2049
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Do What Michael Saylor Does!
Ignore These Rumors
Explosive Growth For Bitcoin | Why Brian Rose AKA LondonReal Is So Bullish On Crypto
Token2049
There’s nothing quite like kicking off a newsletter just as I’m about to begin a 36-hour journey across the world. Only a few hours in, and I’m already anticipating the aches and exhaustion that will set in around hour 10, get worse by hour 20, and hit hardest as I finally reach the end - right before I hit the ground running for events that start only hours after landing.
The destination? Singapore—for Token2049, one of my absolute favorite cities and, without question, the best conference I attend all year. How could I complain when I’m headed to such an amazing opportunity?
I’ve had similar thoughts when reflecting on the current market cycle. Just a year ago, Bitcoin’s price was less than half of what it is today. I’m grateful for that—and even more grateful that you're here reading this newsletter. Soon, I’ll have the pleasure of meeting some of you in person.
My goal for this newsletter is to take you along for the journey in real-time, sharing updates from each stage of the trip, along with insights into the market as things unfold. I’ll keep you posted on everything I experience along the way.
There’s truly nothing like arriving in Singapore. To get to my ride, I had to walk through the Shiseido Forest Valley—yes, a literal forest inside the airport. Here’s a picture, and yes, it really does look like this. This airport is unlike any other in the world.
Day one has been all about finding my rhythm. As I sit in the hotel now, gearing up for two days of back-to-back interviews with some amazing people and soaking in the conference energy, I feel a mix of calm excitement and eagerness—very much aligned with how I’m feeling about the market right now.
Even during the flight, I got a taste of what’s to come at Token2049. I tried to keep a low profile and catch some rest, but it felt more like I was a judge on *Shark Tank* than a passenger on a plane. Token2049 is on a completely different level from Bitcoin 2024. The conversations buzzing around me were about everything from NFT fractionalization to the intersection of tokenomics and AI, to Solana’s meteoric rise—and this was before we even touched down.
There’s a palpable energy on the way to Token2049 that’s unique to the crypto space—a kind of excitement that just doesn’t exist at Bitcoin conferences.
At this moment, you’re reading my immediate thoughts after finally sitting down and catching my breath following two intense days of filming. I wanted to capture my reflections while they’re as fresh as possible for you. Here’s a close-up of our filming spot—it was absolutely breathtaking.
Aptos hooked my team and me up with an amazing spot on a private cove on the fifth floor. In the coming weeks, you’ll get to see it as we edit and release the interviews I recorded. Notable guests dropped by, including Anthony Scaramucci, American-British podcaster Brian Rose from *London Real*, Animoca Brands co-founder Yat Siu, Aptos CEO Mo Shaikh, and Circle’s founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire.
My goal for this conference was to strike a balance between sit-down interviews and candid conversations around the grounds, offering you a well-rounded view of everything this event had to offer. These discussions were truly special, but I’ll hold off on the details for now—I don’t want to spoil any surprises.
Side note: I was locked out of the newsletter while traveling, which explains why nothing went out last week, along with being swamped by activities. Now, let’s dive into the juicy takeaways from the conference—you’ve made it this far, so you deserve some alpha. This section was written a couple of days after the interviews, as I was heading back and gathering my thoughts.
Full disclosure: I barely spent any time on the second, third, or fourth floors of the conference. Token2049 was massive, and I ended up spending most of my time on the fifth floor where I was filming. I never made it to Breakpoint either—more thoughts on that later. Honestly, I think this conference should have been three days instead of two, which speaks volumes about the state of the market.
Right away, I noticed many more women at this conference than at any other I’ve attended. And not just the type of women that crypto bros can now afford due to better prices—I’m talking about women who are genuinely leading the way. Spoiler alert: one of my upcoming interviews features a conversation with Hong Fang, president of OKX, and Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX Singapore.
I don’t focus much on gender in crypto because what truly matters are the ideas, progress, and innovation. That said, this space won’t fully go mainstream until more women are involved—after all, they make up half the world’s population. I’m finally starting to see that shift happen, and it’s a promising sign.
Another thing that immediately stood out at Token was that everyone’s name tag displayed an affiliation. At first glance, this might not seem significant, but I quickly realized almost everyone was representing a company, project, or network. This wasn’t an event for casual attendees—it was packed with industry players.
Compare this to Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville, where most attendees were simply passionate individuals—many brought their kids, collected selfies, and enjoyed meeting their favorite personalities. That vibe was completely absent at Token. It was all business, and the dynamics were noticeably different because of it. This probably explains why my flight felt like a *Shark Tank* episode—it was the perfect foreshadowing of what went down.
For two days straight, I was a walking target for every crypto pitch imaginable. If you’re wondering what these pitches were, just let your imagination run wild—if you can think of it, I probably heard it. As for what this says about the market, I don’t see it as a bad thing. Excessive pitching signals three things: A) there’s a need for funding, B) there’s money available to attend and pitch, and C) there’s confidence that pitching will yield results.
The abundance of pitching also highlighted that there’s probably more competition now than ever before, creating a sense of urgency to stand out. At previous conferences, there may have been one or two major players in each niche, but now the pressure is on to outpace the protocols or networks literally situated on either side of your booth. However, the downside of all this pitching is the potential for oversaturation. Let’s briefly touch on that.
I don’t think the market is overhyped, but I do believe that 99% of projects will fail within the next 3 to 5 years. This applies to many of the pitches I heard at Token. It’s a harsh but necessary reality of the industry—a culling process that allows the best to rise to the top. When I start seeing this level of pitching at U.S. conferences, I’ll know we’ve hit a turning point in the cycle. It hasn’t happened yet, but I believe it’s coming.
This might sound obvious, but the market top will occur when everyone and their mother is pitching, leaving very few buyers. When that happens, it will seem incredibly bullish—everyone will have a vision, funding to market their ideas, and a desire for investment. But in reality, it will signal that the end is near. There needs to be a balance between investors and those seeking investment—when the scales tip, it’s a sign we’re approaching the top.
Interestingly, none of the conversations I had or overheard at the conference revolved around the SEC, Gary Gensler, the U.S. election, or even much about the Fed. Asia doesn’t seem concerned with these issues, and to be honest, I’m not sure if anyone in Asia even knows or cares who Gary Gensler is (exaggeration, but you get the idea).
On a separate note, I discovered that there was a satellite conference, Breakpoint, just a few blocks away from Token, taking place immediately after. I didn’t attend, but I heard good things about it. My frustration lies in the fact that it’s somewhat ridiculous to have a completely separate, competing conference so close by. This division fragments the industry and undermines our goals of interoperability, which we all prioritize.
As a result, many people I spoke with had to choose between the two.
Don’t get me wrong—I’m all for side events that foster intimate and focused conversations, and I assume that’s what Breakpoint aimed to achieve. From what I heard, they did it well. Hosting it around the same time and place as Token was clever from a profit perspective, but it contributes to the disconnection within the industry. Will we see another conference pop up the next time a new chain joins the ranks of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana?
While this setup may have been convenient for conference-goers, it would be far more efficient to consolidate everything into one event.
I could argue that more conferences indicate the space is maturing, and that’s partially true. However, too many ideologically split conferences could signal the beginning of the end for the way conferences are structured today.
Looking to Wall Street as a model, I believe that as the crypto space matures, we’ll likely see fewer, more focused conferences—much like traditional finance. The events that last will prioritize quality over quantity, emphasizing collaboration rather than fragmentation. The evolution of the conference landscape will depend on the industry’s development and participants’ needs.
The current model, with thousands of booths and endless giveaways, won’t last forever. With that said, let’s talk about what this conference actually looked like.
There was more staff at Token than any other conference I’ve attended. Fancy coffee machines were everywhere, juice bars offered fresh options, and a quarter-mile-long food court served genuinely good food for those willing to wait in line. DJs were set up every 50 feet, actually performing, not just pretending, and there were amenities around every corner. This conference was fueled by bull market money, which made it so much fun to attend.
As always, there were attendees who made it their mission to collect every piece of merch available—hats, backpacks, socks, shirts, water bottles, hoodies, you name it. By Day 2, it felt like a CrossFit Games competition, watching people lug bags stuffed with swag.
There’s nothing quite like watching conference-goers attempt to earn back the cost of the trip through free merch. More power to them—this is more of a comedic observation than alpha, but it does speak to the excitement and indulgence of the event.
That said, leaving Token left me with a much-needed sense of energy and determination for the next few months. I believe Token will be seen as a turning point—one of those conferences we’ll look back on as a pivotal moment when the market started to turn bullish. The next 6 to 12 months of conferences could bring a golden age for the industry. If you have the chance to attend one, do it! Opportunities like this don’t come around often.
I have more to share about the conference, but I’ll dive into that later this week. For now, I want to wrap things up. One highlight is an interview I did where I opened up about some of my more personal, guarded opinions. Mario Nawfal led the conversation, and I really leaned into it—you won’t want to miss it.
Stay tuned, because the market is heating up, and this week is packed with incredible content!
Also, there were some big news stories from last week that need coverage, and I’ll get to those. Normally, I don’t revisit past events, but these are stories we need to keep an eye on. Look for those updates tomorrow!
Last point—don’t be surprised if September turns out to be a strong month. Consensus was extremely pessimistic, which is all the more reason to remember: Bitcoin does what Bitcoin wants to do. The buying opportunity came earlier this month when we hit the average drop mid-month. There are no guarantees we’ll return to those levels.
Let’s have a great week. Wolf out.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bullish divergence with RSI once again found the lows of the month. Since then, it has been up mostly through the most “bearish” month of the year, now green and likely to look good.
In cycles where September has been green, October and November have been monster months - the best of the year. Will history repeat? I have no idea, but the setup is spectacular.
At the moment price is finding strong resistance at the daily 200 MA - we are on day 6 getting rejected at that line.
I remain bullish.
Altcoin Charts
I will simply say this - altcoins look very good and this is the time of the cycle that, if history chooses to repeat, we should be very interested. I will start looking for more specific ideas, but the risk reward at this point has flipped very positive.
Legacy Markets
Stocks rallied as China unveiled a broad range of stimulus measures, boosting risk appetite among investors. European stocks rose, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.8%, led by sectors heavily exposed to China, including mining, luxury goods, and automakers. US equity futures also pointed to gains, while Treasury yields declined.
China’s People’s Bank announced a series of support measures, including cutting reserve requirements for banks and injecting 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) in liquidity for stocks. These moves helped lift China’s stock market to its best day since July 2020 and pushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up over 1%. Despite these positive signals, strategists warned that it might take time for the stimulus to impact European growth, which remains at risk due to slowing economic conditions.
The boost from China’s policy also saw a rise in oil prices, iron ore, and precious metals, with gold reaching a record $2,636 per ounce. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials hinted at the possibility of more significant rate cuts in the US, with attention shifting towards the labor market and inflation data expected later this week. Traders are betting on further Fed policy easing, with another major rate cut anticipated by year-end.
Key events this week:
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Tuesday
Mexico CPI, Tuesday
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks, Tuesday
Australia CPI, Wednesday
China medium-term lending facility rate, Wednesday
Sweden rate decision, Wednesday
Switzerland rate decision, Thursday
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
US jobless claims, durable goods, revised GDP, Thursday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives pre-recorded remarks to the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference, Thursday
Mexico rate decision, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
China industrial profits, Friday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
US PCE, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.8% as of 9:34 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.5%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1139
The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 144.54 per dollar
The offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.0385 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3369
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $63,673.18
Ether fell 0.3% to $2,653.92
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.79%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.20%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 3.97%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 1.3% to $74.84 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
Do What Michael Saylor Does!
Do you think Michael Saylor is spending his time worrying about how rough September has been or whether Bitcoin might dip another 5% before October? I highly doubt it. His focus is likely on acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible, as fast as possible.
MicroStrategy's latest purchase announcement on September 13—18,300 Bitcoin for roughly $1.11 billion—marks the company’s largest acquisition in the past three years. With this addition, MicroStrategy now holds 244,800 Bitcoin, valued at around $14 billion, representing over 1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.
But that’s not the whole story.
Just one week later, on September 20, MicroStrategy announced yet another purchase: 7,420 Bitcoin for approximately $489 million, bringing their total holdings to over 252,000 BTC, acquired for about $9.9 billion. While most of us were joking about buying the dip in September, Saylor was actually doing it.
Wild prediction: September will be the month we all wish we had bought more.
Ignore These Rumors
My gut tells me these rumors are utter nonsense. Coinbase and BlackRock are two of the most heavily regulated crypto companies in the U.S., and neither is operating out of Antigua and Barbuda or leaving their risk management to reckless, unqualified individuals. Coinbase isn’t issuing IOUs to BlackRock, and neither of them is manipulating the price. I firmly believe the ETFs hold the Bitcoin they claim to, and if there’s ever a systemic collapse in this space, it won’t be because of the ETF issuers. Plus, if anything like this were happening, it would require the involvement of major law firms, auditing firms, and a slew of high-level executives.
Explosive Growth For Bitcoin | Why Brian Rose AKA LondonReal Is So Bullish On Crypto
In this episode filmed at Token 2049, LondonReal's Brian Rose, a former Wall Street trader, and twice mayoral candidate, shares his insights into the evolving world of crypto. We dive into the future of the industry, the rise of blockchain in Asia, and the global impact of crypto on freedom, making the case for why digital ownership is key to personal liberty. Whether you’re interested in finance, tech, or global politics, Brian's deep expertise and candid views make this conversation a must-watch.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.