The Wolf Den #1048 - It's One Long Session
Remove your emotions...
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In This Issue:
It’s One Long Session
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Bitcoin Is Coming To Ethereum
eToro’s Bizarre Case
Gary Gensler Is Under Investigation
The World Liberty Financial Debut Is Days Away
Is It A Good Time To Buy Crypto?
It’s One Long Session
My long-time readers know I’m a big fan of poker.
When I first started this newsletter, poker was one of my favorite topics because of my love for the game and its overlaps with investing. While I talk about it less now since I’ve covered it extensively, today I’m revisiting poker with a fresh angle I haven’t explored before.
Let’s dive in.
When I’m seated at the table and get “coolered”—that inevitable situation where my strong hand is beaten by an even stronger one—I remind myself of one simple mantra: *This game is part of a lifelong session.*
Poker players likely understand what I’m getting at, but for those unfamiliar, here’s the idea: *This game is part of a lifelong session* is about handling losses. Sure, it applies to wins too, but it’s more helpful for staying level-headed when unlucky losses pile up.
The purpose of this mindset is to view poker (and life) as a continuous process, not a series of isolated events. Individual hands, sessions, or losses are just small moments in the larger “long game.” By thinking this way, I stay detached from specific outcomes and focus on long-term strategy and decision-making.
The goal of repeating this mantra is simple: remove emotions from the equation to make better decisions. For me, this approach is the most logical. But if imagining your grandma or pet dog helps you stay calm, go with that. The key is to keep emotions in check to enhance your performance.
Of course, this method isn’t foolproof. You’re still at risk of chasing losses if you’re not careful—this happens when you try to recover previous losses by taking bigger risks or making impulsive decisions. Although this philosophy helps manage emotional reactions, chasing losses can still occur if you lose sight of the bigger picture and attempt to win back money too quickly.
In investing, every decision, trade, and position should be viewed as part of your lifelong portfolio. Each move is just one step in a much longer journey. Focusing on the big picture helps you stay level-headed and make more informed choices.
I think this mindset is especially valuable given the volatility of crypto. Breaking your crypto journey into isolated segments can lead to discouragement and poor decision-making. This isn’t just a concern for day traders; it applies to swing traders and macro traders across all time frames.
That time you bought Bitcoin a few years back wasn’t just an isolated “good day,” and the time you went full degenerate on memes wasn’t just a “bad week.” Both are moments in your larger investing journey. Every win and every misstep are part of the long-term process, shaping how you approach future decisions. What matters most is the discipline to learn from each experience and keep your focus on the bigger picture.
When it feels like the losses are dragging on, remind yourself that setbacks are part of the journey. Just as winning streaks don’t last forever, neither do losses. The key is to stay grounded, focus on sound decisions, and trust the process. Over time, it’s the consistency and discipline that will pay off—not reacting impulsively to short-term fluctuations.
At a high level, whether at the poker table or trading crypto, this means taking breaks, playing within your limits, keeping records, and managing risk.
It’s also crucial to remember this mantra when we’re winning every day, heading toward $100,000, and beyond. We’ll need to remind ourselves that, just like the setbacks, this streak is part of the larger session and likely doesn’t reflect the daily average. Maintaining this perspective will help us avoid overconfidence and stay grounded, even when the market seems unstoppable.
Stay positive—the market is starting to show signs of life, but it could just as easily be a bull trap. We’re not out of the woods yet, but by the time everyone agrees we are, most of the gains will have already been made. This isn’t financial advice, but if buying fits your strategy, go for it. I have a feeling you won’t be disappointed in a few months.
Steady lads—onwards and upwards!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I am remaining cautious with Bitcoin, although nothing on higher time frames is worrying me. If you are trading this aggressively for some reason, then it is worth noting that we have clear bearish divergence with RSI on the 4-hour chart - but it is not overbought. This usually means a smaller move down, which would make sense.
A drop to the 56Ks here to test the range lows would be normal after this nice move up from $52,500.
Again, I would not be touching this, just showing you what the charts are saying in the short term.
Legacy Markets
Treasuries advanced and the dollar fell as investors speculated on the size of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut. The two-year Treasury yield dropped five basis points, and the dollar retreated 0.3%, marking its third consecutive decline. US futures indicated modest gains, following a strong week for tech stocks and the broader market.
The debate continues over whether the Fed will implement a 25 or 50 basis-point cut at its meeting next week. Recent US economic data, including a slight uptick in the producer price index and increased unemployment benefit applications, has kept investors uncertain. Former Fed governor William Dudley and Evercore Chairman Emeritus Ralph Schlosstein support a larger cut, citing shifting risks between inflation and unemployment.
In Europe, Danish stocks hit a record high, driven by gains in DSV A/S after its acquisition of a Deutsche Bahn unit, and the Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.5%.
Key events this week:
Eurozone industrial production, Friday
Japan industrial production, Friday
U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 6:18 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%
The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1090
The British pound was little changed at $1.3132
The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 140.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $58,126.8
Ether rose 0.1% to $2,355.14
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.65%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.14%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 3.77%
The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.58%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $69.88 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,566.93 an ounce
Bitcoin Is Coming To Ethereum
This is pretty big news, especially considering the summer doldrums we're currently in. Below is the ‘TL;DR’ from Coinbase's official blog.
“TL;DR: Starting today, Coinbase is rolling out cbBTC – Coinbase Wrapped BTC – an ERC20 token that is backed 1:1 by Bitcoin (BTC) held by Coinbase. At launch, cbBTC will be supported on Base and Ethereum, with plans to support more chains. With cbBTC, we continue to increase economic freedom by giving users more ways to use their Bitcoin.”
The promise of cbBTC is that Coinbase customers can now use their Bitcoin to interact with Ethereum’s ecosystem. This means Bitcoin can be used in everyday DeFi activities, like adding liquidity to protocols or as collateral for borrowing other crypto assets. On launch day, Coinbase listed various platforms where cbBTC is compatible.
“@AerodromeFi, @CurveFinance, @aave, @compoundfinance, @MorphoLabs, @MoonwellDeFi, @sparkdotfi, @veda_labs, @mellowprotocol, @DefinitiveFi, @deBridgeFinance, @ChronicleLabs, @BlockAnalitica, @SteakhouseFi, @gauntlet_xyz, and @maplefinance.”
If you want to get started with cbBTC, this is how it works: “When Coinbase users send their BTC from Coinbase to an address on Base or Ethereum, that BTC will automatically be converted 1:1 to cbBTC. When users receive cbBTC in their Coinbase accounts, it will be converted 1:1 from cbBTC to BTC. Notably, cbBTC will not have a separate order book or trading pair on Coinbase.”
Over the coming months, I’ll be keeping an eye on Ethereum's TVL to see how it grows if cbBTC gains significant traction. If cbBTC doesn’t take off, though, we might not see any positive effects on the Ethereum ecosystem. That said, I can’t imagine Coinbase missing the mark here. The product makes sense, and if it delivers, it could be a real game-changer.
eToro’s Bizarre Case
You might have heard some news about eToro yesterday—or maybe not—so let me explain. Yesterday, eToro paid $1.5 million to “settle charges that it operated an unregistered broker and unregistered clearing agency in connection with its trading platform that facilitated buying and selling certain crypto assets as securities.”
According to the order, “since at least 2020, eToro operated as a broker and clearing agency by providing U.S. customers the ability, through eToro’s online trading platform, to trade crypto assets being offered and sold as securities, but eToro did not comply with the registration provisions of the federal securities laws.”
That news comes straight from the SEC’s press release, and it’s pretty straightforward. What’s unique about the eToro case, which you may not know, is that eToro didn’t operate in the same way as platforms like Coinbase or Binance. I’m not a legal expert, but eToro wasn’t offering spot tokens; instead, they were offering securities based on the price of tokens.
This explains why you might have heard that eToro was forced to halt trading in nearly all crypto assets, except for three: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash. It’s funny how Bitcoin Cash always manages to stay on these platforms, but that's a side note.
To me, this signals two things: first, the SEC clearly has no problem with Ethereum, which is a good sign. Second, the SEC continues to unfairly target the crypto industry. eToro wasn’t offering bad products; their format just didn’t align with the SEC’s rigid regulations, and they were forced to shut down because of it.Gary Gensler Is Under Investigation
This news is music to my ears. Sure, I'd love to see Gary Gensler under investigation for his treatment of the crypto space too, but for now, I’ll take what I can get.
The probe into Gensler’s hiring practices is being led by three GOP representatives: Jim Jordan, Patrick McHenry, and James Comer. The evidence presented includes an email from a prospective employee who mentioned their political affiliation, stating, “I believe I’m in the right place on the political spectrum, and I’m happy to provide as many details as needed so you feel comfortable.” That individual was hired six months later. While I can’t say whether there’s enough evidence to support these claims, it’s good to see Gary being scrutinized as intensely as he scrutinizes our industry.
The World Liberty Financial Debut Is Days Away
Is Trump running for president or gearing up to launch a DeFi project? It seems like he is doing both. He clearly remains committed to crypto, alongside both of his sons.
“Join me live on Twitter Spaces at 8 PM this September 16 for the launch of World Liberty Financial. We’re embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow, outdated big banks behind.”
I’ll be sure to report back on this.
Is It A Good Time To Buy Crypto?
Join Alex Miller, CEO of Hiro, as we break down the latest in crypto and try to find the answer if it's a good time to buy crypto.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.