The Wolf Den #1012 - Make Bitcoin Great Again
MBGA.
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In This Issue:
Make Bitcoin Great Again
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
July Has Been A Successful Month For Bitcoin ETFs
The ETH ETF Trades Tomorrow!
More Rumors
Bitcoin’s Biggest Battle: Caitlin Long's Shocking Insights On The Regulatory War!
Make Bitcoin Great Again
I know I’m not the only person who experiences the following problem:
Have you ever tried explaining Bitcoin to someone, only to immediately realize you sound like you are speaking a foreign language?
I have been in this industry for almost a decade (8 years), and I still find myself getting lost in the complex jargon and industry speak, sometimes making it nearly impossible to explain my passion to someone with zero knowledge of the space.
As soon as I start talking and realize the listener lacks a basic understanding of the topic, I begin to second-guess everything I say. This isn't a knock on anyone; it's precisely our job to climb this wall, not theirs.
“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don’t know.”
Thank you, Einstein.
I’m cautious to call myself an expert, but I still know that it is essential to understand the questions and doubts of non-believers, skeptics, and newcomers. There are many levels to this problem.
More than I want to admit, I have listened to guests on my podcast share their wealth of knowledge, and despite my best efforts, there are long lapses where nothing makes sense. Over the years, I've come to understand more and frame questions in a way that opens up the possibility to follow along. Still, when these moments happen, it's not particularly enjoyable.
This has to be a degree worse for someone who has no baseline understanding of Bitcoin, blockchain, cryptography, or money.
The issue I'm addressing is twofold: first, within the crypto industry, we often fall into the trap of using jargon to navigate and explain complex situations. On a broader scale, the larger problem is that most people outside our bubble lack a fundamental understanding of money's principles.
The end result sometimes looks like this:
A well-studied investor, who spends hours a day considering the depths of code, L2 scalability, smart contracts, and the nuance of decentralized finance, faces their steepest challenge when a family member asks: What is the purpose of Bitcoin? Why does Bitcoin exist? What makes Bitcoin different?
Jumping into the details of Bitcoin without addressing the root issue is futile—hardly anybody truly understands money.
Everyone in this space is so entrenched in our technical jargon and complex frameworks that we tend to lose sight of the basics. If we cannot first ground our discussions in the fundamental principles of money and value, then any advanced conversation about Bitcoin, blockchain, or cryptocurrency becomes an insurmountable barrier for the uninitiated.
When we fail to simplify the core concepts, we risk alienating those who might otherwise engage with and benefit from the innovations we are passionate about. Here are the foundational concepts worth starting with: the essentials of money (as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account), the differences between digital and physical money, a brief overview of central banks, and the basic idea of inflation and value fluctuations.
I must warn you: this is NOT a conversation to pursue unless it is invited and welcomed. For an uninterested listener, this is VERY boring stuff—an impossible sell. If you want to get someone excited about Bitcoin, consider showing them how to open a wallet and sending them $10 worth of Bitcoin to see if that might pique their interest. This technology will eventually find a way into everyone’s life anyways; we just wield the power of accelerating that outcome.
The next time someone opens the door for you to share your crypto passion, think slowly and carefully. How you approach this opportunity will either guide someone toward the valuable gifts this space has to offer or just as easily accomplish the opposite. Don’t be afraid to share your enthusiasm, but do so thoughtfully and receptively. Engage them by asking what they already know, what they want to learn, and gently guide them along the path they’re ready to explore. Be honored to share what you know and humble enough to listen to their perspective.
The last time crypto turned cool, we collectively blew it. Let’s not make the same mistake twice.
Make Bitcoin Great Again.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has been flying fot the past few weeks after bottoming earlier this month around $54,000. If you recall, when price was trading near the lows, there were calls for MUCH lower prices, as is always the case. The reality was that price was massively oversold, there was bullish divergence and no fundamental reason to look for lower prices. This was normal, choppy, summer price action.
Price is now back to the top half of the range and has retested the EQ (center dashed line) of the range as support today. A close above this line would be very encouraging and technically give us a target at the range highs, also the all time highs. As you know, we have been here before without reaching those highs, so keep expectations tempered.
Trading Alpha (which is awesome) is showing grey dots, price way above the track line and the track line turning green. This has been giving us good signal the whole way. I use this indicator every day now, it is the best way to scan the market.
Altcoin Charts
My general feeling on altcoins right now is that Bitcoin still looks poised to outperform and that summer is a tough time to pick winners in the altcoin market. I am still looking for an explosive fall across all of crypto.
Legacy Markets
US tech stocks are set to rebound after their worst week since April, as investors focus on earnings rather than Joe Biden ending his reelection campaign. The market reaction to Biden's exit and endorsement of Kamala Harris has been muted. The dollar slipped 0.2%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped a basis point. Democrats now face the challenge of uniting around a new nominee quickly to compete against Donald Trump.
Investors have been anticipating a potential Trump return, adjusting their portfolios accordingly. Market volatility is expected, with attention on earnings and monetary policy. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.7%, and S&P contracts climbed 0.5%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 1%, breaking a five-day losing streak.
Major earnings reports are due this week from Tesla and Alphabet. European companies have had a strong start to the second-quarter reporting season, although Ryanair fell 13% after cutting its outlook for summer travel prices.
In Asia, stocks were dragged down by a weak tech sector. Chinese bonds gained after a policy interest rate cut, but Chinese stocks fell due to disappointment in the lack of strong stimulus measures.
This week, traders will focus on economic activity data in Europe, US second-quarter growth, and a Bank of Canada rate decision.
Key events this week:
Mexico retail sales, Monday
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embarks on visit to Washington, Monday
EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels, Monday
Singapore CPI, Tuesday
Taiwan industrial production, Tuesday
India’s budget for fiscal year through March 2025, Tuesday
Turkey rate decision, Tuesday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Tuesday
Alphabet, Tesla, LVMH earnings, Tuesday
Malaysia CPI, Wednesday
South Africa CPI, Wednesday
Eurozone HCOB PMI, Wednesday
UK S&P Global PMI, Wednesday
Canada rate decision, Wednesday
IBM, Deutsche Bank earnings, Wednesday
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks, Wednesday
Hong Kong trade, Thursday
South Korea GDP, Thursday
US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods, merchandise trade, Thursday
G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Rio de Janeiro, Thursday through Friday
Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Thursday through July 27
Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
US personal income, PCE price index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Mexico trade, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 6:10 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.1%
The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro was little changed at $1.0886
The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2929
The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 156.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $67,409.37
Ether fell 0.2% to $3,491.2
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.23%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.47%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.14%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,405.29 an ounce
July Has Been A Successful Month For Bitcoin ETFs
Nine days are left in July, and the month has already seen $2 billion worth of ETF inflows, with half of that coming from the past week alone. Furthermore, thrice this past week, the eleven issuers saw inflows surpassing $300 million, with a record high of $425.5 million on July 16, the highest in the past six weeks. ETF issuers now hold a remarkable 900,000 BTC, totaling $60.4962 billion. One million Bitcoin is just around the corner, and $100 billion could happen in as quick as a month if the price jumps alongside inflows. Considering this month is culminating in the Bitcoin conference with plenty of rumors capable of sparking an epic run, I wouldn't be surprised to see this month easily pass $3 billion in total inflows across the board. Plus, if investors enjoy buying the Bitcoin ETF, they will now have the ETH ETF to add some color to their plate. Bitcoin started the month at $62,673, and I think it can honestly do a lot better, especially now that Germany is out of the way.
The ETH ETF Trades Tomorrow!
On May 6, 2024, the odds of an ETH ETF approved by May 31 were sitting at just 6% on PolyMarket. Fast forward two and a half months and a total of nine ETFs have been approved by the SEC and most will begin trading tomorrow. Everyone will have their eyes glued to the inflows, ready to compare ETH’s debut to Bitcoin, but additional long-term factors include the messaging BlackRock releases on Ethereum, which it still hasn’t done yet, outflows from Grayscale, and the addition of staking yield likely at some point after the presidential election. I must admit I am surprised BlackRock doesn’t have a landing page for Ethereum like they do for IBIT, but it has to be coming and when it does, I will feature it here.
More Rumors
Rumors are popping up left and right; some will be true, some won’t. Larry Fink would obviously make an excellent choice as Treasury Secretary; it would almost be sad to see him leave his post at BlackRock for the job, but I believe it would be a net positive for the space. Considering all the rumors popping up, it tells me a lot of news might be coming leading up to the Bitcoin Conference and at the conference later this week. All this said, more sources are leaning toward Jamie Dimon taking the role than Larry Fink.
Also, did anyone else notice that Elon Musk added laser eyes to his profile and David Bailey, the man behind the Bitcoin conference, tweeted the following:
Elon Musk’s jet has officially landed in Tennessee. Perhaps he makes an appearance? My money is on him interviewing Trump on stage.
Elon Musk has the unparalleled ability to break the internet. His renewed support for Bitcoin paves the way for all sorts of exciting possibilities. Will Tesla invest in Bitcoin again? Will Musk start experimenting with mining? Given that Musk endorses Trump and Trump endorses Bitcoin, we might need to start thinking even bigger.
Bitcoin’s Biggest Battle: Caitlin Long's Shocking Insights On The Regulatory War!
In this episode of the Wolf Of All Streets podcast with Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, we delve into the ongoing regulatory challenges facing the crypto industry. We discuss the political dynamics affecting Bitcoin and crypto regulations, highlighting the impact of Operation Choke Point 2.0 and SAB 121. Caitlin also provides insights into Custodia Bank's legal battles and the broader implications for the industry, emphasizing the importance of legal structures and regulatory compliance. The conversation explores potential future changes in the regulatory environment and the resilience of Bitcoin amidst these challenges.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Good words MELKER