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In This Issue:
Think Bigger
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Grayscale Launches A New Fund
Hester Peirce Speaks Positively On Upgrading ETFs
Jamie Dimon May Have Been Orange Pilled By Trump
Bitcoin SKYROCKETS to $66K! Is $70K Next? Watch Now!
Think Bigger
Stated plainly... I'm incredibly f’ing bullish right now.
OG readers know this newsletter leans towards long-term investing and optimism, keeping me generally bullish. But you might be wondering, what makes this time different? Well, let me explain.
The current market backdrop is unlike anything I've seen before in this space. In past cycles, we've swung between overly optimistic and overly pessimistic narratives. Now, we find ourselves in a position where tangible narratives are finally coming to fruition.
Below, I've compiled a non-exhaustive list of some of the biggest X factors that will propel this market MUCH higher.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Fresh TradFi money continues to flow into Bitcoin via ETFs, creating a steady stream of upward price pressure that shows no signs of abating. Furthermore, many of the world’s largest wealth managers (Wells Fargo, BOA, Vanguard) have yet to fully endorse and offer Bitcoin ETF products to their entire audience; some only provide them upon request. If Trump wins, these managers may change their policies, and the market heats up, $40 billion in inflows by the end of the year is easily achievable. We've had multiple days in a row with $200 million to $400 million inflows.
Spot Ethereum ETFs: In less than a week, Wall Street will have its second crypto ETF to choose from, providing diversification in a sector that has not been possible until now. For Wall Street, Ethereum represents a radical departure from Bitcoin and appeals to a new class of tech-focused investors. Furthermore, the ETH ETF will inevitably drive up the price of ETH and generate a spill-over of new funding into the entire ecosystem, potentially sparking a renaissance of innovation. Ethereum’s success next week and in the months to come will dictate the pace at which new ETF filings emerge, such as for SOL.
The Bitcoin Conference: If there's ever a moment for monumental announcements, this upcoming conference is the time and place. Everyone is expecting Trump to commit his platform to Bitcoin and potentially hint at the United States taking an interest in a position, but many other speakers could make major announcements we can't foresee. The Bitcoin conference is where narratives are born, developed, and take life. Furthermore, this conference couldn't be happening at a better time in terms of Bitcoin's current macro cycle.
Tokenization and RWAs: The convergence of traditional and digital finance has never been closer. Tokenized equities are poised to revolutionize global investing. Forward-thinking investors are speculating about an all-encompassing 'everything cycle,' which could potentially unlock the 'everything cycle squared' once RWAs turn mainstream. Larry Fink has been advocating this trend for months: “ETFs are step one in the technological revolution in the financial markets. Step two will be the tokenization of every financial asset.” BlackRock launched BUIDL just this March, and its tokenized treasury has already surpassed $500 million. The future points to tokenization across all sectors.
A Regime Change: If Donald Trump is elected president and fulfills his promises, the SEC may face substantial pressure to end regulation by enforcement tactics and restructure their authority. Gary Gensler would be toast. Such a change could significantly benefit altcoins facing securities classifications, pending SEC cases, crypto firms seeking to operate in the U.S., and the clarity of regulatory frameworks and jurisdictions.
Stablecoins: Stablecoins continue to represent a pivotal use case for crypto, yet there's surprisingly little attention on the intense battle for global market dominance between Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC. Tether is undergoing restructuring into four divisions: AI, mining, education, and USDT, while also acquiring substantial amounts of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Circle is cementing its footprint in the U.S. through partnerships with Coinbase and other major entities. Moreover, Circle has made significant strides in Europe by becoming the first stablecoin to achieve compliance with MiCA standards. With the stablecoin market currently valued at $161 billion, it seems poised to accelerate towards the $1 trillion mark by 2030.
Market Overhangs: Germany has sold its $3 billion worth of Bitcoin at the market's absolute bottom, leaving Mt. Gox as the remaining significant overhang. With Mt. Gox in the process of distributing coins back to creditors and the market entering rebound territory, creditors planning to immediately dump may reconsider. While $8 to $9 billion is a substantial amount of Bitcoin, if only 20% of creditors sell, the rally might only slow for a few weeks rather than dip. Additionally, ~$300 million worth of daily Bitcoin inflows could easily offset the selling pressure from Mt. Gox. Furthermore, billions in cash being repaid to creditors could translate into buying pressure. The worst is likely behind us.
I foresee Bitcoin easily reaching $100,000 by the end of the year. From the current price of $65,000, Bitcoin only needs a 53.85% increase. While this might seem like a lot, achieving $100,000 could happen in the blink of an eye if the right conditions are met during the later stages of this bull cycle.
Think bigger.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Nice. I discussed this exact scenario with Christopher Inks on YouTube yesterday when we talked about the bearish divergence. As he aptly pointed out, any drop was likely to give us hidden bullish divergence.
We now have it, confirmed. This renders the bearish divergence complete and is a signal of continuation to the upside.
Let’s hope this plays out.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Run it back, Turbo. You may remember me presenting a setup here recently, which never triggered because price failed to close above $4.30. Remember the disclaimer on altcoin charts - if a certain thing happen, then the trade triggers.
I am bullish on Rune for various reasons (I OWN THE TOKEN ALREADY), but am looking at this solely from a technical view. We had huge bullish divergence with oversold RSI at the bottom, which has clearly played out. Now we have another attempt at breaking $4.30. If this happens, I would be looking for an entry around that area on a retest as support. Yes, I could miss it, it could go straight up, but that is my approach. If we miss, we miss.
Trading Alpha (which you should take a serious look at) also is showing multiple grey dots in a row, pls a break above the trackline. Bullish setup.
My target is $7.27, but would take some profit on the way up. I will still hold my core position.
Legacy Markets
US tech stocks are set for a small rebound following an optimistic earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which boosted confidence in AI spending. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% after the index's worst day since 2022, with Nvidia, AMD, and Super Micro Computer showing strong premarket gains. Concerns over potential stricter US curbs on semiconductor tech exports to China had previously hit the sector. TSMC's better-than-expected earnings and raised revenue projections for the year reassured investors. Despite ongoing concerns, including ASML's extended losses and potential trade tariffs under a Trump presidency, the overall sentiment is supported by robust earnings and expected interest rate cuts. Other highlights include Volvo's profit beat, declines in airline and Beyond Meat stocks, and anticipated positive Netflix subscriber growth. The dollar index remained low, the yen steadied, and the euro weakened ahead of a European Central Bank meeting. Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak later, with initial jobless claims data expected.
Key events this week:
ECB rate decision, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% as of 9:52 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0932
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 156.52 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2733 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2988
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $64,842.08
Ether rose 1% to $3,450.05
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.18%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.44%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.08%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.1% to $85.20 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,467.71 an ounce
Grayscale Launches A New Fund
Grayscale tends to catch a bad rap for its higher fees, premiums/discounts, and ETF market dumping. But the one thing the company consistently excels at, and doesn’t get enough credit for, is introducing innovative products that offer a glimpse into the future of crypto ETFs. Yesterday, Grayscale announced the launch of its newest private placement investment product, Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund. “This diversified, thematic fund was designed to give investors exposure to the potential growth of protocols at the intersection of blockchain and artificial intelligence.” Further reading from the press release, “The blockchain-based AI protocols embody the principles of decentralization, accessibility, and transparency, and the Grayscale team feels strongly that these protocols can help mitigate the fundamental risks emerging alongside the proliferation of AI technology.” You can see the holdings along with their distributions above.
ETH ETFs Will Eventually Include Staking
The following happened on an interview yesterday…
Interviewer: One piece that was dropped was staking, of course, which was removed from the applications earlier on. I wonder the reasons for that and whether or not any of that could change as we see these progress in the life of them being out there as products.
Hester Peirce: I think certainly something like staking or any feature of the product, we saw that on the Bitcoin exchange-traded products too. There were features of the product that some people wanted to see included but were not. Those are always open for reconsideration as far as I am concerned.
In this exchange, Hester Peirce is referring to in-kind creation and redemption, which some Bitcoin issuers wanted but didn’t receive the green light on from the SEC on. If things unfold as hoped and the SEC's influence over crypto ends this election cycle, it will usher in a wave of changes, including the addition of staking to ETH ETFs, a SOL ETF, and increased flexibility in in-kind and cash creation/redemption. Hester Peirce being promoted to Chairwoman of the SEC would be incredibly bullish.
Also, speaking of the ETH ETFs, we now know the 21Shares ETF’s fee is priced at 0.21%, matching the Bitcoin fee. Bitwise is at 0.2%, BlackRock at 0.25%, Grayscale is at a whopping 2.5%, Grayscale Mini at 0.25%, and Invesco/Galaxy at 0.25%.
Jamie Dimon May Have Been Orange Pilled By Trump
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase and a well-known Bitcoin critic, is reportedly “changing his tune” on Bitcoin, according to Trump. In a recent interview, Trump admitted he is open to selecting Mr. Dimon as Treasury Secretary. If true, this shift in Dimon's stance could be positive news for crypto investors. Despite Dimon's past criticism, JPMorgan has been increasingly embracing crypto, signaling a potential alignment between leadership and corporate strategy.
“If I throw it aside, another country, most likely China, will pick it up—they’re pretty advanced in that sphere. It’s a baby, an infant right now. But I don’t want to be responsible for allowing another country to take over this sphere.” — Donald Trump
Also, I think all know that Jamie Dimon’s opinion on Bitcoin will be dictated by what is politically popular and good for his bottom line.
Bitcoin SKYROCKETS to $66K! Is $70K Next? Watch Now!
Bitcoin has jumped over 20% in the last week! I am joined by David Duong, the Head Of Institutional Research at Coinbase, to discuss this rally. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Great post overall Scott, but spreading the rumor about Jamie Dimon getting orange pilled is not adding to your reputation as an astute leader in the BTC and crypto ecosystem. Dimon would rug pull in heartbeat to protect JPM shareholders and the US Treasury Dept. Please don't trust Dimon until we see years of consistent positive actions from him.