The Wolf Den #1007 - Questioning Our Sources
Don't trust everything you see.
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In This Issue:
Questioning Our Sources
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Germany Is Out Of Coins
Another Case Dropped
Coinbase Shares Its Thoughts On Q3
Trump Odds Increase Dramatically
Unstoppable Tether: Paolo Ardoino Reveals The Secrets Behind Its Dominance
Questioning Our Sources
Mainstream media is notoriously poor at fulfilling its primary duty of accurately reporting news. I’ll hesitate to make assumptions, but those who continue to fully trust mainstream media may have a screw or two loose, if you know what I mean.
And as much as I hate to admit this, our very own crypto industry, which was founded on restoring trust and integrity in money, is often just as guilty of bad reporting as mainstream media. I don't even know where I would begin if I were to catalog all of the crypto media f*ck ups we have seen over the years.
On that note, I've created a brief quiz for you to evaluate various media sources in the crypto space to determine how credible your sources are. I challenge you to go through this list, be honest with yourself, and see where you spend most of your time.
Here’s how it works: Below is a list of sources for crypto information, each randomly assigned a corresponding letter. Choose the five sources where you usually spend the most time and remember their letters. After selecting your five sources, determine the numbers associated with each letter in the key below and add up your final score.
Please note that this quiz is subjective, so you can feel free to disagree with it.
Academic and official certificate programs - W
CoinDesk - L
Pop culture references - Q
GitHub - E
TikTok - X
(Crypto) Courses - J
Onchain analytics - A
Celebrities - P
Medium - R
Twitter (Depending on who you follow) - U
CoinMarketCap/CoinGecko - O
Institutional-grade trading platforms - G
Reddit - C
(Crypto) Newsletters - V
Cryptocurrency exchanges - N
Facebook groups - M
Whitepapers and roadmaps - S
Telegram/Discord/Slack - H
Podcasts - D
Academic journals - Z
YouTube - K
Legal precedent - F
Conferences, events, and meetups - Y
Cointelegraph - B
Regulators - I
Make a mental note of your five letters here: _ _ _ _ _
Now for the corresponding answer key:
A:5 B:4 C:3 D:3 E:4 F:5 G:5 H:2 I:1 J:3 K:3 L:4 M:2 N:4 O:4 P:1 Q:1 R:3 S:4 T:5 U:4 V: 3 W:5 X:1 Y:2 Z:5
Sources rated 5 are the best and 1… well, hot garbage.
Your score.
Bad: 6 to 8
Below average: 9 to 12
Average: 13 to 16
Good: 17 to 20
Perfect: 21 to 25
Additional Notes:
Any item on the list can contain information ± any number of tiers based on quality. For example, Twitter contains accounts with bad information and some regulators actually understand crypto and should be considered high value (e.g., Hester Pierce). These are exceptions, not the rule.
Telegram, Discord, and Slack were difficult to score due to the lack of oversight and prevalence of scammers. However, some of the best discussion groups and helpful individuals can be found in this category. With extra caution and time, these platforms can be considered top tier when engaging with good faith actors.
Most level 3 sources comment on information from the higher tiers. This doesn't mean they're wrong, but they're not primary sources. Even this guide falls into this category, along with many other newsletters and content that I highly recommend. Information often becomes more digestible in this category, but it may lose its original clarity.
Whitepapers and roadmaps are unique because they can be considered primary sources, but their quality can vary significantly. For example, reading the Bitcoin or Ethereum whitepaper is a different experience than reading a speculative NFT project's roadmap with anonymous founders who have been absent for months.
Take some time to evaluate where you stand in terms of information sources. As an investor, being at 17 and above typically leads to above-average returns and results. Ultimately, we all want to move upstream in this river of knowledge, so share what you know and help others when you can. Mainstream adoption begins with sharing knowledge! I hope this guide helps you in your crypto journey, and here's to a fantastic week ahead.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin rallied hard off of the lows, breaking above the 200 MA and recapturing the range lows today. Bulls wants to see a close inside the blue range to confirm the reversal, but things are looking very good.
There are quite a few reasons for Bitcoin to have bounced, both fundamentally and technically. A bullish divergence with oversold RSI is as consistent a bottom signal as there is, so I continue to use that as my main indicator. If you were paying attention here, you were able to buy the bottom of this correction.
My focus remains on Bitcoin.
Legacy Markets
US stock futures rose, and longer-maturity bonds declined as investors increased bets on Donald Trump's potential presidential return following an assassination attempt. The US 30-year yield surpassed the two-year yield for the first time since January, driven by expectations of Trump's expansive fiscal policies. The dollar strengthened against G-10 currencies, and stock futures climbed.
Stuart Cole from Equiti Capital UK noted that markets are re-evaluating Trump's election chances, leading to a steeper yield curve. This anticipation of more tariffs and increased spending under Trump could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation. Investors are also focusing on potential interest-rate cuts, with speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled.
S&P 500 futures increased by 0.5%, bolstered by Apple's premarket rise due to positive AI platform forecasts from Morgan Stanley. Trump's media firm surged by 67%, and shares of private prison operators and firearm-related companies also rallied.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index slightly declined, with Burberry Group Plc dropping nearly 17%. The Mexican peso fell over 1% against the dollar, while Bitcoin saw its largest jump in almost two months, driven by speculation on Trump's improved reelection prospects. Asian equities slipped, particularly in Hong Kong, following China's slowest economic growth in five quarters.
Key events this week:
Eurozone industrial production, Monday
US Empire State Manufacturing, Monday
Goldman Sachs earnings, Monday
Jerome Powell is interviewed by David Rubinstein, Monday
Fed’s Mary Daly speaks, Monday
Germany ZEW survey expectations, Tuesday
US retail sales, business inventories, Tuesday
Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings, Tuesday
Fed’s Adriana Kugler speaks, Tuesday
Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
US housing starts, industrial production, Wednesday
Fed Beige Book, Wednesday
Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Wednesday
ECB rate decision, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as of 8:07 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
The euro was unchanged at $1.0907
The British pound was little changed at $1.2977
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 158.04 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $62,628.6
Ether rose 4.5% to $3,345.6
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.24%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.50%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.12%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $82.11 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,418.88 an ounce
Germany Is Out Of Coins
On Friday, Germany sold the last of its Bitcoin holdings, reducing its position from 50,000 coins to zero, as shown in the chart above from Arkham Intelligence. While I’m not well-versed in German law, and many U.S.-based reports haven’t addressed this, there is debate about whether Germany was legally required to sell its Bitcoin. Regardless, Germany now has zero Bitcoin left to sell, removing one potential overhang on the market. It’s hard to grasp the scale of 50,000 Bitcoin, but the last 3,846.05 BTC sold was worth $223.81 million. Bitcoin absorbed this selloff remarkably well.
Another Case Dropped
The SEC has concluded its investigation into Stacks, a Bitcoin Layer 2 designed for smart contracts, marking the second case dropped without enforcement action in a week and the third within a month. The SEC had been investigating Hiro Systems, the developer behind Stacks, for three years, focusing on token sales between 2017 and 2019. The SEC hates it when anyone in crypto makes a little bit of money. Due to the investigation, Hiro abided and opted to treat the native token STX as a security, which hindered innovation and caused significant inconvenience for the company. Fortunately, Hiro argued that the token had become sufficiently decentralized, strengthening their case and leading to this favorable outcome. Either the SEC is gradually shifting its stance toward crypto, or it is losing power and is compelled to drop some of its peripheral cases. Time will tell.
Coinbase Shares Its Thoughts On Q3
In terms of quality and credibility, it's hard to match the value Coinbase Institutional provides for free to its readers. I've reviewed the report and compiled some of the most standout statements to share here. Hope you enjoy!
“There is concern is that cuts may not be bullish for markets if there’s a fear of a bigger slowdown if the US falls into a recession later this year or in early 2025." We’ve held the opposite view that rising productivity from the acceleration of technological adoption in a post-pandemic world (including but not limited to generative artificial intelligence models) will kick start a new multi-year economic cycle that could begin as early as 4Q24.”
“In fact, we think it’s very likely that the economy peaked in 2Q24 – one of the reasons we think the Fed will cut interest rates starting September 18 (this month is too soon and there’s no August meeting).”
“For now, we expect the price action to remain choppy in 3Q24, as crypto markets still lack strong narratives.”
“Ethereum’s continued focus on being a settlement L1 suggests that its execution layer is unlikely to significantly scale in the near term as measured by gas (computation units) per second. Instead, it is focusing more heavily on increasing data availability bandwidth for L2 storage. This, however, does not mean that ETH’s utility is stagnating. To the contrary, the multiplicity of L2s enables different technological approaches to rapidly compete.”
Trump Odds Increase Dramatically
A failed assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump shook the country this weekend. Violence undermines the core principles of democracy and is the antithesis of the freedoms and foundational ideals upon which the United States was built. This isn't a political newsletter, so I will leave the political commentary there. However, following the failed attempt, Trump’s odds of becoming president jumped by 10% on Polymarket, reinforcing my belief that Polymarket is one of the most insightful and valuable tools ever built in the crypto space.
In other news, the RNC is happening now and the selected VP may have major implications for crypto. Also, Trump is said to still be attending the Bitcoin conference!
Unstoppable Tether: Paolo Ardoino Reveals The Secrets Behind Its Dominance
Paolo Ardoino, CEO at Tether & CTO at Bitfinex, discusses the success of Tether, a $112 billion stablecoin. We talk about the factors that will make Tether a dominant player in the stablecoin market, Bitcoinization, tokenization of real-world assets, MiCA regulation, and investments the Tether team is doing outside of crypto. Don't miss this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets podcast!
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.