The Wolf Den #1006 - The Golden Age Is Upon Us
Witness History
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In This Issue:
The Golden Age Is Upon Us
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Cathie Wood Pens A Letter To Investors
The SEC Ends The Paxos Case
$MSTR Splits!
HUGE Political Support For Bitcoin: Next Bull Run Incoming?
‘The Golden Age’
There’s nothing quite like the annual Bitcoin Conference.
Nowhere else do tens of thousands of devoted Bitcoin enthusiasts converge from all corners of the globe to celebrate, discuss, and engage in the ritual of showcasing their hardware wallets while discreetly promoting meme coins as if it were their full-time job.
Where else can you watch Tony Hawk, in his 50s, shred a half-pipe, witness Max Keiser curse out Elon Musk, see an entire country adopt a Bitcoin standard, and miss a talk because you were stuck in a quarter-mile line for the restroom?
The 2021 Bitcoin Conference, described above, easily stands out as one of the best financial conferences ever. Attendance reportedly surged to 15,000 people that year, more than doubling to 35,000 attendees the following year. This happened while Bitcoin was in the early stages of a bear market—a fact unknown to us at the time.
It’s hard to argue against the 2021 Bitcoin conference earning a spot in the hall of fame, but perhaps the crown belongs to the 2017 Bitcoin Conference held from December 1-3, also in Miami. Outside, every color of Lamborghini imaginable lined the streets, while inside, attendees celebrated Bitcoin crossing $10,000 just one day before the event, setting the tone for the entire gathering.
Every Bitcoin conference is fun to reminisce about because they never fail to deliver, even during bear markets. However, the upcoming conference in two weeks promises to be unlike anything we've seen before. I believe there's a strong chance it will be remembered as 'The Golden Age of Bitcoin Conferences.'
The first thing to note about this conference is that it's not in Miami; it's happening at the Music City Center in Nashville, Tennessee—offering a stark contrast in scenery from the Miami vibe we are all familiar with. This is our chance to move beyond some of the corny stereotypes that have defined Bitcoiners, although I'm sure some will be reluctant to see them go.
I haven't seen any predictions yet on the expected attendance, but given that the 2022 conference drew about 35,000 attendees, I wouldn't be surprised if this one surpasses that and approaches the 50,000 mark. What sets this conference apart from others is the unique position of Bitcoin's price heading into the event.
Let me paint a picture of all the past conferences in recent years:
Bitcoin 2017 (December 1-3): Bitcoin was around $10,000 to $11,000.
The bear market immediately followed.Bitcoin 2018 (January 18-19): Bitcoin was around $11,000 to $12,000.
The organizers opted to host the conference in January instead of December; Bitcoin was still in a bear market.Bitcoin 2019 (June 25-26): Bitcoin was around $11,000 to $12,000.
Bitcoin was barely climbing out of the bear market.Bitcoin 2020: The conference was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
This could have been promising, but it never happened.Bitcoin 2021 (June 4-5): Bitcoin was around $36,000 to $37,000.
Bitcoin was down nearly 50% from its high.Bitcoin 2022 (April 6-9): Bitcoin was around $43,000 to $47,000.
Bitcoin was about to begin a bear market.Bitcoin 2023 (May 18-20): Bitcoin was around $26,500 to $27,500.
Bitcoin was in a bear market.Bitcoin 2024 (July 25-27): Bitcoin is now trading between $57,000 and $58,000.
‘The Golden Age’ begins.
There has been no greater challenge to the annual Bitcoin Conference than Bitcoin itself. Dating back to 2017, every conference has seen Bitcoin either at the peak of a bull market, entering a bear market, or battling for survival.
There has yet to be a conference where Bitcoin is in the later stages of a bull market, but not at the peak—the perfect setup for us to witness something unlike anything we've seen before. That time is now.
Bitcoin is not only well-positioned, but the conference will also feature two presidential candidates, Donald Trump and RFK Jr., alongside key figures from the industry.
Speaking of Trump, it's no secret that Bitcoiners have shown affection for the former president, and he has reciprocated that sentiment. If there's ever going to be an epic announcement from Trump regarding his plans for Bitcoin, it will likely be at this conference in two weeks. Trump will have the attention of a massive live audience that holds significant financial influence not only in the U.S. but globally.
The upcoming election is likely the biggest tailwind for crypto, and I believe this conference is where those sails will finally catch this wind.
Also, never in a million years did I think I would be seeing the following image for a Bitcoin conference.
How can the price not go up if Donald Trump, Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, Russell Brand, and Edward Snowden are all channeling their energy toward it? Not to mention RFK Jr., Bill Miller IV, Vivek Ramaswamy, and the two senators of Tennessee.
Trump's speech could unfold in a variety of ways, but what everyone will eagerly anticipate is if he announces that the United States will purchase Bitcoin if he becomes president. Such a proclamation would arguably be the most bullish statement ever made about Bitcoin. Ever.
If you aren’t going to the conference, don’t fret. Bitcoin Magazine is good about providing free live streams for those who cannot attend the Bitcoin conferences in person.
Whether you're relaxing at home on your couch, discreetly streaming from the office, or sitting front row at the conference itself, you're guaranteed to feel like a champion watching this event—I promise that.
This is our Super Bowl, and if there's ever been a moment for Bitcoin to surge through our veins and ignite a fire inside us, the countdown starts now.
We are about to witness and make history.
I hope you can participate in some capacity. Bitcoin wouldn't be possible without each of you showing up. Trump, Saylor, Wood, and others are all exciting, but what truly makes this machine run is the collective force of all of you.
We are entering the Golden Age of Bitcoin Conferences.
Bask in the glory.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Yesterday’s candle was showing promise in the morning, but turned hideous by the end of the day - that’s why you wait for the candle to close. We now have two shooting star candles in a row, although not truly placed in an “uptrend.” Regardless, there’s clear resistance at the 200 MA on the daily chart and a ton of selling on every move to the upside.
We also have hidden bearish divergence now, which effectively renders the bullish divergence obsolete.
That said, any dip below the lowest daily closes here will inevitably give us bullish divergence again.
Right now I have low conviction on anything but more chops. I want to see price back in that range.
Legacy Markets
US equity futures stabilized on Friday after a tech-led selloff, with attention shifting to upcoming earnings reports from major banks and new price data. Apple and Microsoft saw gains in premarket trading, while Tesla dropped due to a delay in its robotaxi launch. Investors are moving from tech megacaps to cheaper cyclical stocks, including banks. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are set to report earnings soon, followed by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America next week.
Inflation data from Thursday boosted expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with a reduction in September now fully anticipated. Global stocks are on track for a sixth consecutive weekly advance, driven by optimism about Fed easing.
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose, led by telecom stocks, while technology stocks lagged. Oil prices climbed for a third day, signaling stronger demand, while gold prices fell after a sharp rally.
Key events this week:
University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US PPI, Friday
Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo’s earnings, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:28 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0887
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2956
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 159.23 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $56,949.01
Ether fell 1.9% to $3,056.62
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.23%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.52%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.15%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $83.44 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,400.68 an ounce
Cathie Wood Pens A Letter To Investors
Cathie Wood followers and ARK investors should pay close attention to the letter sent out two days ago, addressing frustrations and concern with the fund's performance. The opening paragraph details the following, “ARKK, our flagship fund that offers thematically differentiated, nearly pure-play exposure to disruptive innovation, remains 72% below its peak while broad-based benchmarks like the S&P 500—powered by very few stocks—are reaching all-time highs.”
A few select statements from the report stood out to me. Essentially, the letter is a defense of her contrarian strategy.
“First, in our view, many stocks associated with truly disruptive innovation have settled into rare, deep value territory.”
“Second, if interest rates unwind, we believe ARK’s differentiated disruptive innovation strategies should benefit disproportionately, as they did in the fourth quarter of 2023 and during the coronavirus crisis.”
“The five innovation platforms upon which we have focused our research and investing—robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and multiomics sequencing—are converging.”
“ARKK’s exposure to the Magnificent Six as of May 2024 was 2%, compared to the 30% in the S&P 500 and 39% in the Nasdaq 100.”
The SEC Ends The Paxos Case
On February 13, Paxos, a blockchain company in partnership with Binance and responsible for BUSD, received a Wells notice from the SEC alleging the asset was a security. It’s important to note that the Wells Notice specifically targeted BUSD, not Paxos itself. That said, Paxos has now prevailed, as the SEC has concluded the investigation and will not recommend enforcement action. What's most interesting about this case is that the SEC dropped the investigation on its own, not under a court order. To me, this suggests the SEC is losing power, and with BUSD being yield-bearing, it could indicate more favorable outcomes for similar cases, such as Coinbase's staking program. Perhaps an influence on the decision was the fact that a week ago, Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled that BNB isn’t a security on secondary markets and called the SEC’s approach, “muddied.”
$MSTR Splits!
There you have it, folks: MicroStrategy is splitting its class A and class B common stock 10-for-1 to, “make MicroStrategy’s stock more accessible to investors and employees.” Key dates for the split are as follows: August 1 is the record date for the dividend, shares will be distributed after the close on August 7, and trading of the new shares will begin on August 8.
Normally, I don't think stock splits mean much, but in this case, MicroStrategy is uniquely positioned to benefit immensely from a Bitcoin run. Cheaper shares make this stock much more attractive. Don't underestimate $MSTR this bull run.
HUGE Political Support For Bitcoin: Next Bull Run Incoming?
Donald Trump announced he will speak at the Bitcoin Nashville, a crypto conference, on July 27. Bitcoin gets a big support from politicians ahead of the US elections. Will this event become a major push for Bitcoin? I am discussing this and more with Tom Dunleavy, Managing Partner at MV Capital, and a former senior analyst at Messari.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.