The Wolf Den #1000 - The Point Of No Return
A scary place...
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In This Issue:
The Point Of No Return
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Sony Jumps Into Crypto
Circle Gets EU Approval
Oh The Irony
Will Bitcoin Surge in July? Also: The Debt Crisis & Ethereum ETFs | Macro Monday
The Point Of No Return
No two newsletters are the same, but today's is just a tad different from usual.
Normally, I NEVER plan what I am going to write in advance. For me, it hinders creativity and places an insurmountable burden on performance.
Against my better judgment, I did just that for this newsletter, spending the past few weeks drawing inspiration from random corners of my mind and life experiences, jotting down ideas on my phone. As I review them now, I can't help but feel that none of them quite hit the mark.
How could this newsletter deliver something spectacular if it were merely a random assortment of pre-selected, disconnected thoughts, completely deviating from the tried-and-true process that got me here in the first place?
If I had to pinpoint just one thing that describes this very moment—my search for the next word, you wondering where this next thought goes, my journey of 1,000 newsletters, our small role in the story of Bitcoin, and the grand accomplishments of this industry—it would be the realization that we have all collectively crossed the ‘point of no return.’
Here’s an excerpt from a published paper that sheds some light on this concept.
“Bartlett (1958. Thinking. New York: Basic Books) described the point of no return as a point of irrevocable commitment to action, which was preceded by a period of gradually increasing commitment. As such, the point of no return reflects a fundamental limit on the ability to control thought and action.”
Let me repeat the key part, “a point of irrevocable commitment to action, which was preceded by a period of gradually increasing commitment.”
We are all there, but Bitcoin, in particular, has passed the point of irrevocable commitment.
It's impossible to pinpoint exactly when Bitcoin crossed ‘the point of no return’ during its 15+ year journey, but I am certain, without a shred of doubt, its ‘PONR’ is now behind us.
When reflecting on this point, I can't help but flicker through the plot that led us here and consider the infinite number of ways it could have played out just slightly differently, preventing us from ever passing this threshold.
What if Satoshi had given up or never experimented with money and blockchain in the first place?
It’s very possible that Hal Finney and the original mailing list recipients simply didn't care, or Hal Finney’s time was cut just a little shorter.
Maybe Silk Road’s shutdown spawned a dark age, leading to an irrecoverable decline in sentiment, and the same for Mt. Gox.
The Fork Wars are often overlooked, but there was a time when Bitcoin Cash deeply threatened the security and future of Bitcoin.
What if Bitcoin didn't pan out for El Salvador and the nation was crippled beyond repair?
FTX and Operation Chokepoint could have just as easily turned Wall Street against us rather than with us.
Not to get too philosophical, but in a million other universes that discover their own Bitcoin, it doesn’t work; Bitcoin doesn’t cross the point of no return, and the experiment fails. And in those storylines, today’s newsletter 1,000 doesn’t happen, or if it does, it's a reflection on the end of Bitcoin and our forced return to fiat enslavement.
That’s a sad fate.
This could be the moment where I turn this newsletter into a celebration, but that wouldn't capture the emotional essence of 'the point of no return.' The ‘PONR’ evokes an uneasy mix of anxiety, anticipation, determination, and uncertainty as individuals confront irreversible decisions and their potential consequences.
When Apollo 11 launched in 1969, it marked a point of no return for humanity's dream of reaching the Moon.
The American colonies declared independence from Britain in 1776, reaching a point of no return in their quest for freedom and self-governance.
When Muhammad Ali refused induction into the U.S. military during the Vietnam War, he faced a point of no return in his boxing career.
The dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki marked a chilling point of no return in modern warfare and mutually assured destruction.
The events of September 11, 2001, were a watershed moment in global history, representing a profound point of no return in terms of security, diplomacy, and societal resilience.
Alex Honnold's free solo climb of El Capitan in 2017 stands as a breathtaking point of no return in extreme sports.
There are countless examples.
No matter how you frame it, whether good or bad, the point of no return is a daunting place to exist. There's no turning back; in some cases, grand outcomes await on the other side, but it always guarantees a total disruption of the status quo and the possibility of catastrophic failure.
Bitcoin embodies all of this and more.
Maybe it was this January when the ETF was approved that Bitcoin crossed that point. Or perhaps it was years ago, during the third halving, when the code successfully proved for a third time that it works. I don’t know for certain, but as I reflect on everything Bitcoin has achieved, it's clear that this asset has reached a state of irreversible momentum. There are no takebacks or retreats from this point on.
All of those options are off the table. They will never even see the table again.
The good news, though, is that something epic awaits us wherever this path leads. Bitcoin wasn’t designed to be just a mediocre asset that comfortably settles into retiree portfolios for diversification. Nope. Bitcoin only truly ‘arrives’ when the current monetary system is completely uprooted and dismantled in every imaginable way. Will it happen? The odds are against it, and I don’t know.
That’s to be determined in the end game.
But it could happen, and we have an asset to protect us if it does.
What I do know is that Bitcoin has reached and passed an irrevocable commitment to pushing forward, and the thanks belong to you. You showed up every day, breathed life into this newsletter, helped me accomplish my dreams, and played a small role in the acceleration of something epic.
Nothing about this journey has been easy, nor will it be, but one thing is for certain: Bitcoin marches on and cannot be stopped.
Bitcoin has passed the point of no return.
Thank you, as always, for reading. I never anticipated that I would write 1000 newsletters - and that I would feel like I was only getting started.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Not a single thing has changed since yesterday…
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
This is a generally iffy time to be looking at alts, although many look like they could be reversing here, at least for some solid trading opportunities. I will give one example, but there are a lot of setups like this. Look for oversold bullish divergences with RSI. They are all over the place.
While there is no confirmation here of a reversal, I love the setup.
I want to see price above the resistance at $4.30 - that would be a sign for me that the bottom is likely in.
As you can see, we have clear oversold bullish divergence on the daily chart, a huge long signal in my opinion. We also have Trading Alpha showing 4 “Bs,” which are bottom signals. Price above $4.3 would also be above the trackline on this indicator.
I really like the potential here, but need to see the breakout.
Legacy Markets
US futures have slipped ahead of the release of key jobs data, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down around 0.4%, reflecting concerns about the outlook for US interest rates. Notably, tech giants such as Nvidia, Meta, and Apple have seen declines, with Tesla shares dropping over 1% in premarket trading, surrendering some of yesterday’s 6% gain. This downturn comes amidst a backdrop of fluctuating Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, as the 10-year Treasury yield held Monday’s rise, fueled by speculation about potential fiscal deficits and inflation under a possible Donald Trump presidency.
Recent data showing moderating inflation in the US offers short-term support for stocks. According to UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja, “The central pillar of how markets are likely to trade over the next six months is lower inflation first in the US, followed by lower growth in the US.” However, signs of slowing economic growth are likely to weigh on shares more broadly in the medium term, suggesting a more defensive market stance.
Meanwhile, European stocks have also declined after policymakers signaled they need more evidence that price pressures are under control. The Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark dropped about 0.7%, led by insurers and car makers. France’s CAC 40 erased most of Monday’s gains as the country prepares for a second election round, with the outlook for French assets remaining uncertain.
Investors are closely monitoring US job openings data, as strength in hiring has so far helped the economy weather aggressive Fed tightening, which brought interest rates to the highest levels in two decades. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at an ECB forum in Portugal, along with ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks, are also in focus for further clues on monetary policy.
In commodities, oil traded near a two-month high on escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the rapid start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Iron ore held near its highest close in about a month, while gold remained little changed. As global markets navigate these complex dynamics, the interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical events, and policy decisions continues to shape the investment landscape.
Key events this week:
US job openings, Tuesday
Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde speak at ECB forum in Portugal, Tuesday
China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
US Fed minutes, ADP employment, ISM Services, factory orders, initial jobless claims, durable goods, Wednesday
Fed’s John Williams speaks, Wednesday
UK general election, Thursday
US Independence Day holiday, Thursday
Eurozone retail sales, Friday
US jobs report, Friday
Fed’s John Williams speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 6:38 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.7%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0714
The British pound was little changed at $1.2638
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 161.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1% to $62,605.54
Ether fell 0.5% to $3,444.97
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.45%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.61%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.26%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $84.05 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,324.35 an ounce
Sony Jumps Into Crypto
Some clarification is needed regarding the recent Sony news. Some outlets are reporting that Sony is both launching a crypto exchange and building an Ethereum L2, but this is only half true. While the ETH L2 story originates from an announcement last September about Sony building a blockchain, it seems likely that this blockchain could be Ethereum-based, but this was never explicitly stated. Sony only said that it aims for its blockchain to be the “backbone of global web3 infrastructure.”
As for the actual news, Japan’s multi-industry conglomerate Sony, a 104-billion-dollar company, is preparing to launch a cryptocurrency exchange subsidiary by revamping the local trading platform WhaleFin, which it acquired last year. WhaleFin has been renamed S.BLOX Co. and plans to collaborate with other Sony Group businesses to enhance its crypto trading services. There is no date set yet, but it would be massive news if an ETH L2 were launched alongside the debut of the exchange or shortly thereafter.
Circle Gets EU Approval
Circle, the company behind USDC, has expanded across the Atlantic and is now registered as an electronic money institution (EMI) in France. This registration grants Circle a key license to become a compliant stablecoin issuer under the European Union’s stringent crypto regulations. This license makes Circle the first stablecoin issuer to achieve compliance with MICA, the European Union’s landmark Markets in Crypto-Assets. For Circle, this means both USDC and its newer Euro Coin are fully compliant in the region.
Jeremy Aillare said this on the news, “Since our founding, Circle has sought to build durable, compliant, and well-regulated infrastructure for stablecoins. Our adherence to MiCA, which represents one of the most comprehensive crypto regulatory regimes in the world, is a huge milestone in bringing digital currency into mainstream scale and acceptance.” It will be interesting to see what sort of growth USDC captures from the move along with how Tether seeks to respond. This is a HUGE step for Circle, which has fallen far behind Tether’s growth.
Oh The Irony
The U.S. government continues to conveniently rely on Coinbase for its crypto needs while the SEC is aggressively suing the platform. The U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) has chosen Coinbase Prime to provide custody and advanced trading services for its large-cap digital assets. What’s even more comedic is that the Marshals went through a “thorough evaluation process” and landed on Coinbase (an exchange being sued) because it has “reliable and secure institutional-grade crypto services.” When I am in charge, the Coinbase case is dropped immediately, and the Marshals need to knock on the SEC’s front door. Fun fact: As of March 31, 2024, Coinbase safeguarded $330 billion in assets and recorded $256 billion in institutional trading volume in Q1 2024.
Will Bitcoin Surge in July? Also: The Debt Crisis & Ethereum ETFs | Macro Monday
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Congratulations Scott!
Thank you Scott, you definitely played a part in getting bitcoin to the point of no return. I always enjoy reading your newsletter, now I can’t get that Kansas song out of my head😂