A Closer Look At BTC.D And ETH.D - The Wolf Den #1,160
What do these metrics mean?
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In This Issue:
A Closer Look At BTC.D And ETH.D
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
One Final Look At The ETH Validator Queue
USDC Adoption On Solana Is Accelerating
Tom Lee Calls Standard Chartered’s ETH Prediction “Low”
Google Play Store Thought They Could Demand Licenses
Ethereum SET For All-Time Highs! Altcoins Ready To Follow?
A Closer Look At BTC.D And ETH.D
Bitcoin dominance is one of the most telling metrics in crypto – arguably the most important. It measures how much of the total crypto market cap is concentrated in Bitcoin versus everything else, offering a clear lens into market sentiment, capital rotation, and risk appetite.
Think of BTC.D as the market’s oxygen level. When oxygen drops, you know something in the environment is shifting. A rise in dominance means Bitcoin is “taking the air” – capital and attention flowing back to the king. A drop means altcoins are breathing new life into the market.
Right now, BTC.D is about 58.7% – nearly ten percentage points below its yearly high of 65.1%. That’s a significant shift, and it’s telling us the air is moving.
Here’s how people read it: when dominance rises, altcoins usually struggle; when it falls, they often surge. The pattern isn’t perfect, but it’s one of the best tools for anticipating where the next wave of opportunity might hit in the broader crypto market.
Here it is as a stand-alone measure:
Depending on the platform you check, Bitcoin dominance will read slightly differently – but both charts tell the same story.
Zooming out, it feels like Bitcoin has only just begun to give up its dominance. We’re back to levels last seen at the end of January, which is hardly ancient history. In oxygen terms, Bitcoin still holds nearly all of it, while altcoins are only just starting to take in a little air.
Since the end of 2022, BTC.D has been in a steady uptrend – climbing from a low of about 38% to a recent yearly high of 65.1%. The last time we saw dominance anywhere near that high was January 2021, when Bitcoin traded around $35,000. Going further back, you have to look to 2017, when BTC.D sat in the 80–85% range before taking its first major plunge. That drop, from roughly 80% to 33% in a single year, marked the first true altcoin bull run. BTC.D eventually climbed back to nearly 70% in early 2021 before sliding again. Long term, it’s impossible to say exactly where BTC.D “should” be – but those +80% levels are long gone.
This is clearly illustrated in the CoinMarketCap chart above. I prefer the version that treats Ethereum as its own category, separate from “others.” Ethereum has clearly reversed its dominance trend, while “others” have yet to break out and remain in a downtrend since late 2022. This is why many altcoin holders from prior cycles have stayed relatively quiet – they’re still waiting for their turn.
Now, focus on ETH.D. For more than three years – from May 2021 through June/July 2024 – ETH’s dominance stayed within a 15% to 18% range. It moved significantly above or below that range only during periods of extreme fear or greed. I’d argue this range is a reasonable target for ETH to return to, and possibly exceed, in a bull market with volatile rotations.
If that range is a fair baseline, we can model ETH’s potential market cap and price at different total crypto market caps.
At $4.11T total market cap:
15% → $616.5B → $5,109
16% → $657.6B → $5,449
17% → $698.7B → $5,790
18% → $739.8B → $6,130
At $6T total market cap:
15% → $900B → $7,377
16% → $960B → $7,869
17% → $1.02T → $8,361
18% → $1.08T → $8,852
At $8T total market cap:
15% → $1.2T → $9,836
16% → $1.28T → $10,492
17% → $1.36T → $11,148
18% → $1.44T → $11,803
At $10T total market cap:
15% → $1.5T → $12,295
16% → $1.6T → $13,115
17% → $1.7T → $13,934
18% → $1.8T → $14,754
That’s a lot of numbers – but here’s the point. Where you think the total crypto market will peak this cycle will heavily influence how you view ETH’s potential. If you believe the market has ~50% more to run to $6T, your expectations should be set accordingly. If you think we’ll double to $8T or even push to $10T, the upside targets change dramatically.
The goal here isn’t to provide a perfect price prediction or call the exact top. It’s to give you a framework – a way to think about ETH (and BTC) in the context of market dominance and total market size. With this, you can build your own plan: take profits strategically, dollar-cost average, or simply hold through the cycle. Ignore the influencers throwing out $250K BTC or $20K ETH without context. Instead, lean on data, your own bias for the remainder of the cycle, and lessons learned from past markets.
If you haven’t yet joined my new Telegram group, now’s a great time to do so. I’ll be transitioning to sharing more charts there and less here - it’s just simpler for my schedule, since I am always on the move, and allows me to interact with all of you on these charts. I’m not taking anything away, just moving some pieces around.
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Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin briefly set a new all-time high above $124,500 yesterday, but the breakout didn’t stick. Sellers stepped in quickly, pushing price back below the key resistance at $123,231 by the close. That rejection leaves us without confirmation of a sustained move into price discovery.
The short-term support to watch is $122,000, with stronger backing at $115,051 – a level that aligns with the 50-day moving average. A daily close above $123,231 would reopen the door to $125,000+, but continued failure here could send BTC back toward $120,000 or even $115,000 for a retest.
Momentum is still bullish overall, but yesterday’s wick signals that bulls may need to regroup before the next leg higher.
Altcoin Charts
The are in my new Telegram group!
Legacy Markets
U.S. stocks paused after back-to-back record closes as traders awaited fresh economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s next move. Thursday’s producer price index (PPI) report and Friday’s retail sales figures will help determine whether the Fed opts for a quarter-point rate cut in September – now fully priced in – or considers a larger move.
Treasury yields continued to slide, with the two-year near 3.67% and the 10-year at 4.21%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly pushed back against calls for a half-point cut, warning it would signal undue urgency. The yen strengthened after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted a Bank of Japan rate hike, while the pound edged higher on stronger-than-expected UK GDP.
Oil steadied near $66 as the U.S. and Russia prepare for a high-stakes summit over Ukraine. Bitcoin slipped 1% from a new all-time high. Corporate moves included a 20% drop in Adyen after a weak outlook, HelloFresh plunging 16% on lowered guidance, and Apple planning a major AI hardware push.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 5:51 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1684
The British pound was little changed at $1.3583
The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 146.59 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1% to $121,661.95
Ether rose 0.9% to $4,761.12
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.21%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.67%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.59%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $62.97 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
One Final Look At The ETH Validator Queue
Okay, last update on the ETH validator queue until something changes. The market clearly doesn’t care if the exit queue is multiples longer than the entry queue - price action remains unfazed. I’d cautiously say this will hold true until proven otherwise. That said, I still expect a day will come when selling pressure from exiting validators does have an impact - but today is not that day. Demand is just that strong and or there’s a widespread lack of interest in selling ETH, even once exited from staking.
USDC Adoption On Solana Is Accelerating
Squads, a Solana-based platform known for its programmable self-custody and treasury management tools, has partnered with Coinbase to make USDC the default stablecoin across its products. Already securing $1B in USDC - about 15% of the supply on Solana - Squads chose USDC for its audited reserves, deep liquidity, and regulatory oversight. Since 2021, Squads has secured $10B in assets, moved $5B in stablecoins, and served 400+ teams, positioning stablecoins as the backbone of the next era of finance.
Coinbase’s Shan Aggarwal said, “Squads is driving onchain stablecoin adoption across the Solana ecosystem. We’re excited to support them as they deeply integrate USDC across their product suite to unlock further value for their customers. Our partnership with Squads reinforces the role of USDC as the leading stablecoin in DeFi, and will play a pivotal part in showcasing its utility in the broader onchain economy.”
I selected this story precisely because yesterday, I wrote about Circle launching Arc - an example of large corporations making their own blockchains rather than finding solutions with existing ones, a trend that could grow into a larger concern if successful, but, for now, is just a blip on my radar. This news offers a counterpoint: a leading Solana-based treasury and custody platform, is partnering with Coinbase to make USDC its default stablecoin - proof that Solana is still a preferred chain and will catch a lot of USDC activity.
Tom Lee Calls Standard Chartered’s ETH Prediction “Low”
Before I get to what Tom Lee said, I want to start with Standard Chartered’s new ETH predictions:
I’ll try and get my hands on the report if it is released to the public, but the gist is above. Here’s what Tom Lee had to say:
“You know, I think that’s within the realm of expectations. Ethereum first needs to clear its prior highs of around $4,800. It’s within 6% of that now. Believe it or not, Bitcoin’s obviously been making many new all-time highs this year, but Ethereum is still below its 2021/2022 highs. So I think once it clears that level, Ethereum and small caps tend to be correlated. To me, $7,500 actually might be on the low end of what’s possible. I have seen many targets of ten to fifteen thousand.”
To me, it sounds like Tom Lee is anticipating a figure around $10,000 to $15,000, but wants to be cautious and not say it outright.
Google Play Store Thought They Could Demand Licenses
Google Play announced yesterday that it will soon require crypto wallet providers in over 15 regions, including the U.S. and EU, to obtain licenses and follow industry standards starting Oct. 29. U.S. developers must register as money services businesses or money transmitters, while EU providers must register as CASPs, both facing compliance measures like anti-money laundering programs. The rules were going to apply to both custodial and non-custodial wallets in these jurisdictions. For a few hours, I was thinking, ‘Oh boy, now we have to face corporations regulating us instead of the regulators themselves.’
Well, it turns out bad PR can leave a pretty nasty sting because this happened by the evening:
Ethereum SET For All-Time Highs! Altcoins Ready To Follow?
In today’s livestream we are joined by David Duong to uncover JPMorgan and PNC partnering with Coinbase , The stablecoin markets expansion and Ethereum surging to all time highs followed by TA from Chris Inks to see where Altcoins are headed next. Lets Go!
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