The Wolf Den #1150 - Bitcoin Doesn't Need A Hero
But You Need Bitcoin...
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In This Issue:
Bitcoin Doesn’t Need A Hero
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Opinion Piece: Why A Crypto Reserve Is A Bad Idea
The White House Supports Ending The Broker DeFi Rule
World Liberty Financial Holds Strong
FTX Is Unstaking Its SOL
Trump Crashes Bitcoin! Is This The Best Time to Buy Before The Bounce?
Bitcoin Doesn't Need A Hero
Bitcoin doesn’t need to be included in a strategic reserve.
Bitcoin doesn’t need another Michael Saylor or Strategy.
Bitcoin doesn’t need a Trump post or a White House press conference.
Bitcoin doesn’t need sovereign wealth funds to buy it or BlackRock to sell it.
Bitcoin doesn’t need U.S. states passing bills in its name.
Bitcoin doesn’t need Wall Street to wake up.
Bitcoin doesn’t need a red or blue Congress.
Bitcoin does need miners who selflessly distribute power back to the grid.
Bitcoin does need developers who ensure its continuous evolution.
Bitcoin does need node operators securing the ledger’s history.
Bitcoin does need patient teachers guiding the next generation.
Bitcoin does need well-intentioned supporters willing to stand against bad actors.
Bitcoin does need education initiatives to push back against misguided forks.
Bitcoin may not need any single thing to survive, but it thrives on a collective effort. Some investors mistakenly believe it requires the things in the “doesn’t need” column to succeed—it doesn’t. However, it undeniably depends on those in the “does need” column to grow and function as intended.
Bitcoin won’t reach $1 million without governments, corporations, and global wealth funds competing for supply in true game-theory fashion. That said, if the U.S. reverses course, if Trump walks away, or if Strategy abandons its mission, I’m not budging as a Bitcoin holder. Sure, these would hurt sentiment and short-term price action, but the idea that Bitcoin requires specific events to validate its existence is a fundamental misunderstanding of the asset.
I’m bringing this up today because it’s during market dips that people forget what they’re holding. If you’re largely invested in Bitcoin this cycle, you’re already in a great spot. Bitcoin has surpassed its old all-time high, delivered massive gains, and remains the most resilient major asset. It’s the anchor of a portfolio—the insurance policy against both foreseeable and unforeseen risks. If an altseason does happen, Bitcoin will be called the ‘slow horse’ again, but right now, it’s doing exactly what it was designed to do.
That’s why, as a dip buyer, I’m primarily focused on Bitcoin. My thesis is simple: this cycle has proven that Bitcoin is a winner, and when the next rug is pulled, it will hold up better than anything else. I’m not buying Bitcoin because I think it will be the best-performing asset over the next 6–12 months—I’m buying it because I know it will survive, and it will outperform over time.
The more the market convinces itself that a specific set of conditions must be met for Bitcoin and altcoins to succeed, the more fragile it becomes. That mindset fuels the next leg up but also sets the stage for the next major setback—potentially wiping out an entire cycle or worse.
The market is in a strange place. Investors are stuck between optimism about what’s ahead and anxiety about the current state of things. Altcoins are down more than 50% from their highs, barely holding on, yet they’re simultaneously being teased with the biggest potential buy event in their history.
If Trump or the Presidential Working Group comes out on Friday and sets a strict threshold that only Bitcoin meets—shutting the door on altcoins—it could trigger a brutal sell-off in alts while Bitcoin moves higher. That would be an unexpected turn of events, crushing the hopes of many speculators but possibly restoring some balance to the market by realigning expectations.
Long-term success in this space requires each asset to forge its own path. Bitcoin has done that—it has solidified itself as a store of value across all investor classes, from retail to nation-states. That doesn’t mean Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, or Cardano can’t carve out their own narratives. But at this stage, they don’t belong in the same conversation as Bitcoin.
Maybe Ethereum finds its place as the backbone of global finance and tokenization, removing the need for banks. Maybe Ripple succeeds in reducing transaction costs for financial institutions. Maybe Solana becomes the infrastructure layer for a new era of DeFi. I don’t know. I have theories, but ultimately, they need to prove their value on their own terms.
I have some faith that people within Trump’s circle are telling him to limit the reserve to Bitcoin. Whether he listens is another question. But I’ll give him credit—he’s put the right people in place, and that’s worth acknowledging. The fact that this section was meant to be about Bitcoin but ended up revolving around Trump tells you exactly where we are right now.
As an aside - this news just broke…
Bitcoin is the anchor. It’s the life insurance policy. It stands on its own, with or without political backing. By the natural order of things, most of the items on my “doesn’t need” list will happen anyway—and when they do, they’ll push Bitcoin higher. But Bitcoin still requires the things in my “does need” list. Don’t confuse the two.
At $90,000 per Bitcoin, in the grand scheme of things, we’re just getting started. Bitcoin has overcome more obstacles than any other asset in history, but when you zoom out, all of this short-term drama is just noise. Bitcoin’s success isn’t about hitting $100,000 or some arbitrary milestone. Real success is when the millions of people who took the leap and bought early find themselves front-running entire governments in a supply race they can’t win. That’s success.
Will that happen at $500,000? $1 million? $3 million? I have no idea. But when your Bitcoin portfolio has outpaced inflation, traditional markets, and almost every asset class over the long run, you’ll know. The exact timing will be different for everyone—it depends on your location, your economy, your fiat reference point. A Venezuelan escaping hyperinflation sees Bitcoin differently than a New Yorker diversifying their portfolio. It’s all relative. But the outcome? That’s inevitable.
Don’t get caught up in Trump’s trade war, Ukraine, the altcoin reserve, or any other noise. Nobody knows for sure if a recession is coming, if crypto is rebounding, or what’s next. Control what you can, stay focused, and stay patient. Bitcoin doesn’t need heroes—Bitcoin will make heroes of us.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin's daily chart continues to show strength after a strong bounce from the 200-day moving average, which acted as key support. The price is now consolidating below $91,271, an important resistance level that bulls need to reclaim for further upside momentum.
The recent surge in volume suggests strong buying interest at the lows, reinforcing the idea that the recent dip was met with accumulation rather than panic selling. However, the next major hurdle remains at $94,990, which has previously acted as a key resistance level.
For bulls, the immediate objective is to flip $91,271 into support, which would open the door for a move back toward $94,990. Failure to break above this level could lead to a retest of the 200-day MA, which remains the key downside level to watch.
Overall, the structure has improved, but Bitcoin still needs a daily close above $91,271 to confirm a continuation of the recovery.
Legacy Markets
European stocks surged as Germany announced plans to loosen fiscal rules and allocate hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure spending. The DAX jumped 3%, leading a 1.6% rise in the Stoxx 600. The euro climbed 0.7% while bund yields surged over 20 basis points on expectations of increased debt issuance.
Markets also responded positively to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s comments suggesting a potential compromise on tariffs. S&P 500 futures rose nearly 1% as Lutnick hinted at possible tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian goods. Trump, in his address to Congress, defended his economic policies while acknowledging an "adjustment period" for tariffs.
In Asia, Hong Kong stocks outperformed as China maintained its 5% growth target for 2025, signaling potential stimulus measures. Meanwhile, BlackRock led a consortium to acquire a controlling stake in Panama ports, a move seen as a strategic win for the Trump administration.
In commodities, oil extended its decline, gold held near record highs, and Bitcoin swung between gains and losses. Treasury yields remained steady, while the dollar weakened 0.5%. Investors are now focused on upcoming inflation data and further details on Germany’s debt plan.
Key events this week:
US ADP employment, ISM services index, factory orders, Wednesday
Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
Eurozone retail sales, ECB rate decision, Thursday
US trade, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks, Thursday
Fed’s Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic speak, Thursday
Eurozone GDP, Friday
US jobs report, Friday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives keynote speech at an event in New York hosted by University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Friday
Fed’s John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.6% as of 10:19 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.7%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.9%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0706
The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 149.40 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.2635 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2834
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $88,596.03
Ether rose 2.7% to $2,236.59
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.24%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 19 basis points to 2.68%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.8% to $70.50 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
Opinion Piece: Why A Crypto Reserve Is A Bad Idea
Nic Carter is wickedly smart and never hesitates to challenge the mainstream narrative. I don’t agree with everything in this piece, and even he admits, “I count myself among the few holdouts who don’t see the development as positive for either Bitcoin or the U.S. government itself.” But his arguments are worth considering, and his eight points raise valid concerns:
What is easily done is easily undone
The global reserve issuer should not disrupt itself
The U.S. already has plenty of exposure to Bitcoin
There is no “strategic” value in a crypto reserve
A Crypto Reserve dilutes the value proposition of Bitcoin
Bitcoin does not need the government
It would turn Americans against Bitcoiners
It looks self-interested
Now, let’s unpack what’s really happening here. Earlier this week, I said this would be the story everyone is talking about—so here we go.
First off, Trump has directed the Presidential Working Group to include XRP, SOL, and ADA in their considerations. But let’s be clear—this is not a direct order. The executive order never explicitly named these assets, so the group is under no obligation to include them. They’ve simply been instructed to consider them, meaning they can conduct their own research and ultimately decide against it.
It’s entirely possible Trump is playing a more calculated and strategic game. By issuing this directive, he distances himself from the lobbying efforts of these assets while giving the appearance that he’s open to their inclusion. If the group later determines that only Bitcoin qualifies—or sets a threshold so high that nothing else makes the cut—it works out in his favor. He gets credit for being open-minded while ultimately letting the experts make the call.
This would be a net positive—not just for Trump’s image but for the American people and the integrity of the reserve itself. An altcoin reserve is not the way to go, and rejecting it would address many of the concerns Nic Carter lays out.
I fully support the idea of the United States purchasing Bitcoin. Those who oppose the U.S. acquiring Bitcoin exclusively may be too entrenched in their libertarian ideals—but maybe I’m just a biased investor. Ultimately, the decision is yours to make.
The White House Supports Ending The Broker DeFi Rule
The White House now officially supports the effort to repeal the IRS broker rule, which requires DeFi participants to report user data. U.S. lawmakers, led by Republican Senator Ted Cruz, are preparing a Congressional Review Act (CRA) to challenge the regulation. If passed with a simple majority, the CRA would overturn the IRS rule that broadens the definition of a ‘broker’ to include DeFi developers, requiring them to track user activity and implement KYC measures. Advocates argue the rule is unsuited for DeFi’s unique nature. The initial vote was set for March 5 but may be delayed due to scheduling conflicts.
This statement, combined with the growing support for pro-crypto legislation, practically guarantees that this archaic and damaging rule will be overturned. DeFi will be a large benefactor of this.
World Liberty Financial Is Holding Strong
I know all of you are feeling the pain of this drop—trust me, you’re not alone. I thought it would be good for our mental sanity to check in on World Liberty Financials’ crypto portfolio to show that nobody is immune to the drawdowns. It also highlights that the President’s family has a direct incentive to see these assets grow in value. This segment will completely set aside the ethics and politics of the situation.
From the image above, you can see what WLF owns:
57.22% ETH
18.93% WBTC
13% USDC
3.78% USDT
3.37% TRX
3.69% Other Assets
Looking at these assets, WLF is down 38.07% on ETH, 19.4% on WBTC, 49.86% on ONDO, 45.87% on LINK, and 59.87% on ENA—just to name a few. WLF also has only 16% cash in its portfolio, so it's not like they’re sitting on 50% cash waiting to buy the dip (that would be a little concerning). While 16% cash on hand is good in times like this, it doesn’t seem like WLF is any more ‘in the know’ any more than we are.
One thing to watch for is if the USDC and USDT position start to drop and WLF begins aggressively accumulating. That could signal they know something, or they could just be like us, throwing in their last bit of cash to accumulate at a discount. The Trump family has a direct incentive to see these assets rise in value, and I don’t see them taking an L on these positions once enough time has passed.
FTX Is Unstaking Its SOL
FTX and Alameda Research, both bankrupt entities, recently unstaked over 3 million Solana tokens, marking their largest SOL unlock since they began selling off company tokens in November 2023. On March 4, blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that FTX and Alameda unlocked 3.03 million SOL, valued at around $431 million at the time. After the unlock, they deposited about 25,000 SOL (worth roughly $3.3 million) to Binance. This latest unstaking is the largest since they unlocked 2.1 million SOL worth $141 million in November 2023. Since then, the firms have consistently unstaked millions of SOL and moved the assets to exchanges. Normally, I don’t pay too much mind to these stories, but considering the state of the market, it’s worth watching what FTX and Alameda decide to do.
Trump Crashes Bitcoin! Is This The Best Time to Buy Before The Bounce?
Joining me today to break down the latest in crypto is Andrew Parish from Arch Public, who will be sharing an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.